What is your 2024 battleground map?

[super6646]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/YW1W2

Currently, I have it has a 225-219 dem map. PA, MI, WI, NC, GA, AZ, and NV as the pure tossups. TX and FL as the lean GOP states, and MN, NM, ME, and NH as the lean dem states. Everything else is solid for each side.

You could argue that Colorado/Virginia being leans for the dems or Ohio/Iowa being leans for the GOP, but I think both are pretty safe at this point. Some would argue that Texas or even Florida should be safe GOP, but I think I'd leave both as leans for now. Texas being the one most likely to fall into the safe category if trends continue however.

[Ferguson97]

Tossup: GA, AZ, PA, MI, WI
Lean R: TX, NC
Lean D: NV

Everything else is safe.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Likely R: Alaska, Ohio, Florida, Texas, ME-02
Lean R: Georgia, North Carolina
Tilt R: Michigan, Wisconsin
Tilt D: Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania
Lean D: Minnesota
Likely D: Maine, NE-02, NH, Virginia

Trump wins 276-262

[Tekken_Guy]

Likely R: Alaska, Ohio, Florida, Texas, ME-02
Lean R: Georgia, North Carolina
Tilt R: Michigan, Wisconsin
Tilt D: Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania
Lean D: Minnesota
Likely D: Maine, NE-02, NH, Virginia

Trump wins 276-262

I feel Trump's chances are better in Nevada than Michigan. Swich those two around.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Pretty close to Ferguson95’s prediction, although I’m less optimistic about Biden’s odds in each category. Every state colored in in the below map is Safe probability wise. Ignore the shades

(NV, AZ, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, NH, ME-all, AK)

[super6646]

Pretty close to Ferguson95’s prediction, although I’m less optimistic about Biden’s odds in each category. Every state colored in in the below map is Safe probability wise. Ignore the shades

Alaska as a battleground? I mean the trend has been there, but I think 2024 is still early I would think.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For the sake of this question, is battleground defined as the states that are the most competitive or the states most likely to decide the election?



The uncolored states are the ones that decide the election imo. Light blue/red states could become important Presidentially in an extreme situation. Everything else basically "doesn't matter" - if the expected side fails to win these states then they've almost certainly lost the election. States like FL, NM, VA, and ME aren't 100% safe for Biden or Trump imo, but they're pretty close and in the scenario they are competative the election has already been decided.

[super6646]

For the sake of this question, is battleground defined as the states that are the most competitive or the states most likely to decide the election?



The uncolored states are the ones that decide the election imo. Light blue/red states could become important Presidentially in an extreme situation. Everything else basically "doesn't matter" - if the expected side fails to win these states then they've almost certainly lost the election. States like FL, NM, VA, and ME aren't 100% safe for Biden or Trump imo, but they're pretty close and in the scenario they are competative the election has already been decided.

Most competitive.

[DS0816]

I don’t have what some would label a Battleground Map.

Above is a recent map of what I consider here for Election 2024.

None of the 2020 Republican-carried states—not even North Carolina—are battlegrounds. Election 2024 is pointing in the direction of a Republican pickup. All states in yellow were in the 2020 Democratic column. They are “On Watch”—meaning they are feasibly capable of flipping. (At this point: At least six of the ten will.)

[Crumpets]

Current map is something like this. All of the lightest colors are tossups that I can easily see going either way in a competitive race. Everything else are states I assume will only flip after all of the lightest states have already gone for one candidate or the other.

[David Hume]

For the sake of this question, is battleground defined as the states that are the most competitive or the states most likely to decide the election?



The uncolored states are the ones that decide the election imo. Light blue/red states could become important Presidentially in an extreme situation. Everything else basically "doesn't matter" - if the expected side fails to win these states then they've almost certainly lost the election. States like FL, NM, VA, and ME aren't 100% safe for Biden or Trump imo, but they're pretty close and in the scenario they are competative the election has already been decided.

NC is well to the right of the tipping point. While it could be close or even flip, Biden would comfortably win already in that case.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map but TX and NC and maybe OH cab bw won over by Ds, my Cuz in TX said they are ready for Allred and Reparations if we get 51/49/1 S that's a clear majority to get rid of Filibuster. MO moves to 2nd tier while TX moves back to tossup

Polls keep saying blks are moving to Rs if Trump picks Scott Harris will remind voters what Scott said about being anti Affirmative Action

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why you don't rule out TX as Spectator said TX is moving towards left and FL is moving to right. Beto isn't running for S ALLRED is, and ALLRED is half blk and white like Obama, Harris and Harold Ford Jr

You never rule out OH whenever Brown is on the ballot and you see Stein is ahead in NC and AK has Mary Peltola

51/48/1 S Emerson was right the other polls were wrong ALLRED is only down 2 not 9 since that immigration, Border Package is being blocked

I know Conserv are so anxious about TX but it will be good if ALLRED replaced Cruz, then Guiterrez will run against Cornyn in 26

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm keeping it a little simpler, these are the only states that I feel have any chance to flip:

Lean D: NE-2.
Tossup/tilt D: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania.
Pure tossup: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Lean R: North Carolina.

That's it.

[BigVic]

I still have the 235-226 battleground map

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying that it's not a 303 map but the state by state polls are off just like in 22 and there can be more than just 303

[GeorgiaModerate]

I agree that the election will be decided by the "Super Seven" that have been listed above, i.e. the seven closest states in 2020.  Everything else is either safe, or safe enough that if the underdog party for that state wins it, they're winning the overall election easily.  I have a spreadsheet that calculates the outcome for all 128 (2⁷) possible outcomes of these states (hey, I was bored one night...) 

Summary:

Because he has a slight head start (226 EV to 219), Biden is favored in a slight majority of the possible outcomes: he wins in 71 of the 128, while Trump wins 54 and the other 3 result in 269-269 ties.  The key state is Pennsylvania, which is not particularly surprising because it has the most EV of the seven.  If Biden wins PA, then he wins in 51 of the remaining 64 possibilities, while Trump wins the other 13.  But if Trump wins PA, he wins in 41 of the remaining 64, with 20 to Biden and the other 3 tied.

Details:

Biden wins if he wins PA and any of the following combinations:

(any two of GA, MI, NC)
(any one of GA, MI, NC) + (either AZ or WI)
AZ + WI + NV

Biden wins if he loses PA but still wins any of the following combinations:

GA + NC + MI
(any two of GA, MI, NC) + (any two of AZ, WI, NV)

A 269-269 tie results if Biden wins AZ + any two of (GA, NC, (WI+NV)) and nothing else.

Trump wins if he wins PA and any of the following combinations:

GA and NC
(either GA or NC) + (any two others)
AZ + MI + (NV or WI)

Trump wins if he loses PA but still wins any of the following combinations:

(any 4 of AZ, GA, MI, NC, WI)

[mjba257]

If Trump is the nominee:
Pure tossup - AZ, MI, PA, WI
Lean D - MN, NH (both due to third party spoilers)
Lean R - GA, NC, NV
Likely D - CO (due to third party spoilers), ME, NM, VA
Likely R - AK, UT (both due to third party spoilers) FL, TX

If Haley is installed as the nominee:
Pure tossup - MI, MN, NH, PA, WI
Lean D - CO, ME, NM, VA
Lean R - NV
Likely D - IL (possibly), NJ, NY (possibly), OR, WA
Likely R - AZ, GA, NC

[TDAS04]

I'm keeping it a little simpler, these are the only states that I feel have any chance to flip:

Lean D: NE-2.
Tossup/tilt D: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania.
Pure tossup: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Lean R: North Carolina.

That's it.

Pretty much agree with this. I'd just put Arizona, and maybe Wisconsin, in the "tossup/tilt D" category, Also, I'd add Alaska as "likely R."

[Sir Mohamed]

[Joe Biden 2028]

The Core Six: MI/WI/PA/GA/AZ/NV

Thats it

[Vern]

This is exactly what mine would be.

[oldtimer]

Mine is a realistic one from a combination of 2020+2022 results and current polls.

New Jersey is a polling mystery, but it ought to be a battleground if New York is in single digits.




It's just that all 2020 battleground states where won by such small margins that it's difficult to expect Biden to hold them with such large movements.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tossup New Jersey and "realistic map" don't go together.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Mine is a realistic one from a combination of 2020+2022 results and current polls.

New Jersey is a polling mystery, but it ought to be a battleground if New York is in single digits.




It's just that all 2020 battleground states where won by such small margins that it's difficult to expect Biden to hold them with such large movements.

Lol Biden has been leading in every PA poll as far as NV yeah Trump didn't win a single delegate still going by those MC polls discredited by QU