Who wins Muskegon County, MI?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who carries Muskegon County, Michigan?

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Muskegon was so close in 2020 that it initially appeared to have flipped to Trump and it wasn't clear Biden squeaked by in it until several days later.

Trump doesn't need to improve much to win it this time. A slight improvement with black voters, a slight decrease in the black voter turnout, and continued inroads with WWC voters is all he needs.

Should be an easy Trump flip.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean Trump. Biden's 2020 win was very narrow and the County generally has favorable Demographics to Trump; any small shift could tip it his way as the poster above points out.

One slightly positive sign for Dems is that Whitmer held her ground in Muskegon County from 2018 to 2022, but the shift between Governors races may not be representative of what we'll see with 2024 Pres.

[DS0816]

Who carries Muskegon County, Michigan?

It flips Republican.

Several months ago, in a different topic thread, I mentioned Muskegon County was more Republican than Kent County in 2020 Michigan. The Republican U.S. Senate nominee, John James, who did not unseat Democratic incumbent Gary Peters, flipped and carried Muskegon County with a higher margin than his Republican hold of Kent County. (Peters won by +1.68.)

I also rate Michigan as a tossup for U.S. Senate. That Muskegon County, under the circumstances of a 2024 Red Wave, would flip not only for U.S. President but also U.S. Senate. (That is, with Michigan delivering a Republican pickup for U.S. Senate to go along with U.S. President. After all, this is a leading bellwether state.)