Biden's % chances of winning re election?
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Biden's % chances of winning re election?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: What are Biden's % chances of winning re election?
#1
90-100%		  
#2
80-90%		  
#3
70-80%		  
#4
60-70%		  
#5
50-60%		  
#6
40-50%		  
#7
30-40%		  
#8
20-30%		  
#9
10-20%		  
#10
0-10%		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 77

Author Topic: Biden's % chances of winning re election?  (Read 1126 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: February 06, 2024, 09:21:42 PM »
What are Biden's % chances of winning re-election?
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2024, 09:25:42 PM »
20-30% right now. Probably close to 0% if Israel is still fighting Gaza and the Red Sea is still blocked by November.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2024, 09:27:58 PM »
Zero.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2024, 09:38:55 PM »
Quote from: Free markets, peace, prosperity on February 06, 2024, 09:25:42 PM
20-30% right now. Probably close to 0% if Israel is still fighting Gaza and the Red Sea is still blocked by November.

You don't understand statistics.
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Rhode Islander First, American Second
freethinkingindy
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2024, 09:39:04 PM »
Fundamentals have never been so bad for an incumbent president. Saying 10% is being generous.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2024, 10:21:14 PM »
55-65%.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2024, 10:34:00 PM »
46%, same number as his presidency.
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BG-NY (permanently retired)
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2024, 10:34:05 PM »
Fundamentals and most polling suggest 20%. But this cycle feels weird. I give him a 40% chance in November as of today.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2024, 11:24:16 AM »
50 percent
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2024, 01:21:53 PM »
He's going to win anyways
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2024, 01:47:39 PM »
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2024, 01:52:46 PM »
Biden's odds just went down today:



This means that the Red Sea disruptions, which lead to increased oil prices as ships use more fuel and more inflation as supply chains are broken up again will persist. Furthermore, the base will still be angry at Biden.
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Zohran "The Sword of Islam" Mamdani
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« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2024, 02:06:52 PM »
I'm beginning to think he's truly screwed, just as he would've been in 2020 were it not for Covid.
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It's Time.
Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2024, 02:14:33 PM »
Lowest for an incumbent since Hoover.
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xavier110
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2024, 02:52:06 PM »
40-50%. Slight underdog right now, but I think the EC has shifted left in his favor vs 2020. The 2022 results in swing states were illuminating.
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Zenobiyl
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« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2024, 02:55:40 PM »
Low 40s, only because Trump is nearly as bad of a candidate
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Red Willow
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« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2024, 03:18:01 PM »
45%. Trump has the edge currently, but the country is so polarized and the Dem base despises and fears Trump to such an extent that Biden has a good chance of narrowly winning again.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2024, 03:20:02 PM »
Quote from: President Greg Abbott on February 07, 2024, 03:18:01 PM
45%. Trump has the edge currently, but the country is so polarized and the Dem base despises and fears Trump to such an extent that Biden has a good chance of narrowly winning again.

No he doesn't Biden is tracking exactly where he needs to be for a 303 map, there are polls that have Biden ahead too Prez Greg Abbott whom supports tax cuts for the rich like Trump

Polls aren't votes and they are all MOE 5 pts
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2024, 03:21:28 PM »
Imo it is crazy to say anyone has an over 60% chance of winning an election until at least after the conventions so I am gonna say Biden has a 45% chance of winning.

If he is polling like this after the conventions though, that number will start dropping fast
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: February 07, 2024, 03:24:50 PM »
Seems like there's a major gap between polling and fundamentals. All things considered, I'd say around 60%.
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Mr. Third-Wayist
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« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2024, 03:27:48 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on February 07, 2024, 03:24:50 PM
Seems like there's a major gap between polling and fundamentals. All things considered, I'd say around 60%.
Some polling recently is showing decent news for Biden but I agree with ~60%
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oldtimer
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« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2024, 04:12:55 PM »
Biden's current polling position is similar to Trump's in 2020.

So I give him a similar chance, 1 in 4.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2024, 04:18:07 PM »
« Edited: February 07, 2024, 04:21:19 PM by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »
57.2 percent according to my highly advanced modeling exercise. Some people are calling it the best, or one of the best, models ever made. Underestimate him at your own peril.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #23 on: February 07, 2024, 04:41:12 PM »
14/23
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oldtimer
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« Reply #24 on: February 07, 2024, 04:45:46 PM »
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on February 07, 2024, 04:18:07 PM
57.2 percent according to my highly advanced modeling exercise. Some people are calling it the best, or one of the best, models ever made. Underestimate him at your own peril.

Old Wall St. joke:
" Are the predicting models Blondes or Brunettes ? "
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