Who wins Denton County, TX?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fast growing suburban county north of Dallas and Fort Worth. The County is also home to the city of Denton which is somewhat of a liberal college town. Overall, the County has had a pretty hard left trajectory in recent cycles:

2004: Bush + 40.5
2008: McCain + 24.2
2012: Romney + 31.7
2016: Trump + 20.2
2020: Trump + 8.1

What's also notable is because the County is so fast growing, both sides have increased their vote totals by a ton, especially Democrats:

2012: 157579 Romney - 80978 Obama
2016: 170603 Trump - 110890 Clinton
2020: 222480 Trump - 188695 Biden

Also a very good chance the County votes to the left of the state federally for the first time in forever in 2024. I could easily see Biden losing TX while carrying Denton County, infact that's my current personal prediction; narrow Biden win as he loses statewide.

I also think both sides increase their vote total in the County even if turnout is down nationally.

[seskoog]

My guess is Trump narrowly wins it by 1-2 points

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump is more likely to win Tarrant than Biden is to sweep the four squares honestly. Didn't Abbott win it by 13?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump is more likely to win Tarrant than Biden is to sweep the four squares honestly. Didn't Abbott win it by 13?

Fair, but it's still a notable shift left from when he won it by over 20% in 2018.

Honestly, it's kind of crazy how Biden just winning Dallas to winning the quad-metroplex are all within the range of realistic outcomes for 2024 Pres. I can't think of recent time when you've had 3 adjacent competitive counties all of 1 million+ people.

[The Mikado]

Trump, though I think it swings Dem even if the state as a whole swings slightly GOP.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map we arent winning TX ALLRED is down 9

[Roll Roons]

Trump. I think if Denton flips, so does Texas.

[mileslunn]

Trump. I think if Denton flips, so does Texas.

I think it votes to left as very fast growing and a lot of new voters moving there are from closer to city, out of state and high numbers are college educated and non-white.  By contrast in areas outside big four metro areas Trump likely outperforms 2020 pushing vote total higher there.  Now I still think Trump wins county, but I think his share of popular vote will be lower than Texas overall.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump but it will swing left even if the state swings right

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

I tend to agree with those saying Trump will probably carry Denton County by a narrow margin.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

In a better year for Democrats, it could go D, but this year is not that year.