i dont believe trump can win the popular vote

[October Choke Artist]

He may win the election, yes. But a republican winning the popular vote? That would be such a strange thing. What do you guys think?

[EastwoodS]

realignments do weird things.

[Ferguson97]

I think it's possible if Republicans make gains in deep red and deep blue states, while losing ground in swing states - which is precisely what happened in 2022.

[Redban]

A basic scenario that I’ve heard is that Trump basically matches his 2020 total (ie his figure from a super-high turnout election) while Biden drops back to ordinary Hillary 2016-numbers (+an extra 1-2 million from population growth). In that way, Trump wins the popular vote

 Trump is also going to gain voters from defections: all the data, from current polling to 2022 midterms, shows that more Biden 2020 voters will flip to Trump 2024 than Trump 2020 voters will flip to Biden 2024. It might add an extra 0.5-1% to trump’s popular vote margin, as defectors are rare today. But it is another advantage

And new voters (which does NOT mean young voters) are heavily in favor of Trump, not Biden

[VBM]

If Trump wins the popular vote but loses the EC, I can guarantee you that the GOP would almost unanimously call for the abolishment of the EC. If that happens, I hope the Dems don’t let their newfound advantage with the EC blind their judgement. Even if the EC suddenly becomes more favorable to us, it’s not gonna remain that way forever. We need to get rid of the EC

[ProgressiveModerate]

A basic scenario that I’ve heard is that Trump basically matches his 2020 total (ie his figure from a super-high turnout election) while Biden drops back to ordinary Hillary 2016-numbers (+an extra 1-2 million from population growth). In that way, Trump wins the popular vote

 Trump is also going to gain voters from defections: all the data, from current polling to 2022 midterms, shows that more Biden 2020 voters will flip to Trump 2024 than Trump 2020 voters will flip to Biden 2024. It might add an extra 0.5-1% to trump’s popular vote margin, as defectors are rare today. But it is another advantage

And new voters (which does NOT mean young voters) are heavily in favor of Trump, not Biden

Agree with your point about defectors, but that can be cancelled out by generational turnover. More Trump voters have died since 2020 and more Biden voters have joined the electorate.

In 2020 there were likely more Clinton-Trump defectors than Trump-Biden, but Biden ultimately gained due to better Dem turnout and favorable Demographic changes.

Turnout is a bit of a wildcard here cause polling suggests Trump might have the edge with base turnout but 2022 results and special elections would suggest Biden does.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/11/trump-cant-win-election-america-political-earthquake

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519225-new-polls-feed-gop-fears-of-biden-rout-over-trump/


You ever feel like you are in groundhog day?

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

I think it's possible, particularly if turnout shifts in advantageous ways to the GOP. This could be anything from a surprisingly strong 3rd party showing, to an October surprise (health or otherwise). The GOP will, of course, be trying to create such an outcome, through both technically legal methods such as disenfranchising voters, and likely illegal methods, such as coordinating with their Russian government allies.   

[DrScholl]

The only way he would win it is by a plurality or with critical low turnout. His main handicap that gets ignored and dismissed is that he's heavily disliked as a person.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump can win the popular vote, but I don't think he's current favored to. Although, I guess a Trump 47.15 vs Biden 47.10 scenario is technically possible, I'm not sure how impressive that would be. Many Dems who said Trump never won the popular vote would now just switch their statement to "Trump just barely won the popular vote".

[seskoog]

Trump can win the popular vote, but I don't think he's current favored to. Although, I guess a Trump 47.15 vs Biden 47.10 scenario is technically possible, I'm not sure how impressive that would be. Many Dems who said Trump never won the popular vote would now just switch their statement to "Trump just barely won the popular vote".

Yeah, this is the only way Trump wins the popular vote. There is zero (and I mean ZERO) chance he wins the popular vote with an outright majority

[Progressive Pessimist]

You're right. It's not happening.

[Annatar]

Republicans won the NPV by 2.8% in 2022, by my estimate adjusting for uncontested seats they had a 2.3% margin. Why can't Trump do as well as House Republicans did in 2022, prima facie there is no reason Trump has to do worse than House Republicans, even if he did, he could do 2% worse and still win the popular vote.

[DS0816]

He may win the election, yes. But a republican winning the popular vote? That would be such a strange thing. What do you guys think?

There are numerous reasons why this will happen here in 2024.

One is collapse of parts of the Democratic Party’s established coalition.

One is that the Democratic incumbent U.S. president is struggling for 40 percent. (Gallup has Joe Biden having closed out 2023 with a 39-percent job approval.)

One is simply people having told pollsters they will not vote to re-elect to a second term Joe Biden—and in addition to that important reason—they have also told pollsters their lives were better during the presidency of Donald Trump.

Effective 02.05.2024: I am guessing an outcome in the 2024 U.S. Popular Vote of R+3.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

He won't Rs haven't won the PVI in a Prez campaign since 2004

[BlueSwan]

Of course he can and current polling suggests that he will. The republican coalition is FAR more likely to hold their nose and vote for Trump, than the notoriously fickly democratic coalition. Democrats kept their broad coalition together and got huge turnout in 2020 when people just wanted to get rid of Trump, that won't be the case in 2024. Biden is likely to bleed support from the young, leftists and minorities and only hold strong or even strengthen with the highly educated.

[mileslunn]

I think Trump could win popular vote although Biden still slightly favored, but unless a lot of Democrats stay home, I think a more accurate statement is Trump will not get over 50% of popular vote.  Otherwise plurality yes, but outright majority would be a surprise.  Biden probably won't either but at least odds somewhat better.