States where lefty protest votes could hurt Biden

[mjba257]

I was reading through a Twitter thread yesterday and this is definitely a concern among Democrat circles. And people are fools to ignore this. Some may point to the SC primary results as a counter, but remember that was a largely black electorate which is far less prone to protest voting. It's the young, white lefties that are the concern. There aren't many of which in SC, but in some states there are. Twitter may amplify this to make it seem larger than it actually is, but in a close election, it could be the difference between victory and defeate:

- Michigan -  has a large Arab American population in Dearborn. I know this has been discussed a million times, but if MI is super close, that could absolutely be the difference. Also Ann Arbor and Lansing have a lot of young lefties who are prone to protest voting

- Wisconsin - Madison is full of young lefties and Wisconsin could be very close this time

- Minnesota - not a state on most people's radar, but there was a recent poll that had Biden up by only three points. Also, there is a large Somali population in the Twin Cities, and while they aren't Arab, they are largely Muslim and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Also, the Twin Cities have a lot of young lefties and third parties often do well in MN. If Minnesota flips, I think everyone can agree it's over for Biden.

[Beet]

Yep, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are all pretty much indispensable for Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is always a concern around the margins, however, I don't think these types of voters are particularly more concentrated in certain states over others - there's just the more general regional trend lefty 3rd parties tend to perform better the further north you go and the more D a state gets.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lol do you actually believe blue states are gonna vote R lol if you travel the red states are the ones that havee Maga signs not blue states

[mileslunn]

More likely hurts him in solid blue states like California, Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts or Vermont as Biden will win those for sure so those further left feel staying home won't make a difference.  This meant mean Trump seeing bigger vote jump in percentage in those but still loses them handily. 

[mjba257]

More likely hurts him in solid blue states like California, Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts or Vermont as Biden will win those for sure so those further left feel staying home won't make a difference.  This meant mean Trump seeing bigger vote jump in percentage in those but still loses them handily. 

I figured the safe blue states will have the largest number of protest votes because the risk of the spoiler effect is less so people feel safer to cast a protest vote. But in places like WI and MI which could come down to the wire, just a small number of protest votes or abstaining could make the difference

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

It is for this reason that I think Vermont will swing at least 10% to the right and Trump will win several counties there.

[DS0816]

Re: States where lefty protest votes could hurt Biden

Forum members on this site commonly use the words right and left when they mean Republican and Democratic.

When you have a topic like this, for a so-called political party which is the one commonly associated with being on the left, it is effectively an admission that the Democratic Party is not a left-wing party.

That should be alarming. But, a lot of self-identified Democratic voters are just that—Democratic voters. Team Blue. #VoteBlue

For a person who is truly left…he should refrain from voting for the Democratic Party.

Winning or losing an election, first and foremost, is the responsibility of each candidate.

The Democrats, after the 1980s, have been saying that their losing election cycles—2000, 2004, and 2016—were circumstances outside their control. And part of their refusal to recognize their losing is to say that anyone who ran outside the two major U.S. political parties made that losing Democrat become defeated.

A 2024 loss by the Democrats will continue this pattern. (Their loyal voters enable it.)

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Minnesota and New Hampshire are probably much more competitive than they seem because of the prevalence of third parties there.

[robocop]

If this is a hypothetical situation you are implying then Colorado cannot be ruled out. Solid blue nowadays but the white lefty students and SJW types and California transplants to cities like Denver and Boulder ditching the Dems for a left protest vote would not be impossible and could bring back the days of purple battleground Colorado.
Even NY in theory if the north of the state in the Rust Belt has trended more R and suburbs too and the NYC AOC types splitting the vote could turn the Republican fantasy of a competitive New York into play by the OP's logic?

[Averroës]

It is for this reason that I think Vermont will swing at least 10% to the right and Trump will win several counties there.

Vermont is very white, the youth vote is dominated by college students at expensive, four-year residential colleges, and the cost of living is driving many working people out of the state.

There's a lot about the electorate here that will work in Biden's favor, if the trends suggested by the past couple of years of polling hold.

Biden has much bigger vulnerabilities elsewhere. If, after the campaign plays out, the most notable swing against him in 2024 is from "lefty protest votes," then he's probably doing OK.

[mjba257]

It is for this reason that I think Vermont will swing at least 10% to the right and Trump will win several counties there.

Vermont is very white, the youth vote is dominated by college students at expensive, four-year residential colleges, and the cost of living is driving many working people out of the state.

There's a lot about the electorate here that will work in Biden's favor, if the trends suggested by the past couple of years of polling hold.

Biden has much bigger vulnerabilities elsewhere. If, after the campaign plays out, the most notable swing against him in 2024 is from "lefty protest votes," then he's probably doing OK.

That's a ballsy statement. Even a marginal number of protest votes could be the death nail in the battlegrounds.

[Averroës]

That's a ballsy statement. Even a marginal number of protest votes could be the death nail in the battlegrounds.

It's a rejection of two specific claims suggested in this thread:

(1) Protest votes are a bigger threat to Biden's reelection than voters failing to turn out due to apathy or flipping to Trump out of some combination of frustration and resentment. Protest votes could decide a close contest, but so could any number of things.

Also, Biden's highest-profile left-wing challenger isn't likely to be on many ballots. Protest voters will, at best, have a choice between a moribund Green Party and RFK Jr.

(2) Biden's biggest concern is defections from left-leaning voters, rather than difficulties with some other group. If young people don't turn out for Biden, or if Biden has difficulty with various groups of non-white voters, that points to something more specific than a problem with the left.

[Badger]

PA?

[PSOL]

Lefty protest voters have never spoiled a race for the democratic party.

[mjba257]

Lefty protest voters have never spoiled a race for the democratic party.

2000? 2016?

[CheapDollarEra?]

Lefty protest voters have never spoiled a race for the democratic party.

2000? 2016?

Hillary Clinton wasn't popular overall

Do you think 2000 Florida was full of anti-Gore leftists?

[mjba257]

Lefty protest voters have never spoiled a race for the democratic party.

2000? 2016?

Hillary Clinton wasn't popular overall

Do you think 2000 Florida was full of anti-Gore leftists?

No, but there were at least 537 of them.