This is the first election that will be viewed as truly a tossup since 2000

[Dan the Roman]

I think there is a lot of hindsight. At the time, and I am ancient(well I started following this at 9-10)

2000: Lean R - Gore was down by double-digits in 1999, and until the summer of 2000, a GOP victory was seen as a foregone conclusion. That explains a lot of the enthusiasm among Clinton Democrats for McCain during the primaries, as few credited Gore with a chance. Then Gore suddenly became viable only to have Bush establish a steady lead. I know my parents on election night said "this is probably going to be a very short night" at 6PM. So 2000 is really the inverse of 2020, which was seen as Lean Biden until the first results came in.

2004 - Toss-up - It has to be understood that centrist Democrats always create an echo chamber where every GOP victory is accidental. Bush's victory in 2000, foreordained prior to November, became non-existent following the SCOTUS ruling, and everyone acted until 9/11 as if he was a lameduck. Then, even with his inflated numbers, they were treated as an aberration and a lot of stuff including Iraq was seen as a holding pattern until they fell back to Earth. The narrative and expectations, perhaps outside the Bush campaign itself were always a tossup as best as Democrats talked extensively about their ground game, whereas the Bush team generally worked silently.

2008 - No R had a chance. And that was especially true after the financial crisis, but really that only ensured it wouldn't be a respectable loss.

2012 - With hindsight it was lean D, but this was the inverse of 2004. The Obama campaign kept their cards close to their chests, while allowing the Romney camp to drive narratives about the campaign and polling. The result was a widespread consensus the election was a toss-up.

2016 - No one took seriously Trump winning. Not even after the Comey tape. Heck, most of his campaign didn't. It was just unthinkable he could actually become President. Nate Silver got trashed for even suggesting it was possible if unlikely. This was clearly a willful misreading of the 2014-2015 data but it was what it was.

2020 - This was universally perceived as an almost done deal. Trump was down in "most" polls allowing the ones which were closer to reality to be discounted, and the media transformed into such an echo chamber that even many Republicans and Trump supporters were convinced Biden was up 7+. In reality, 2018 results should have warned Democrats that even with third party consolidation from 2016, Trump had also consolidated his base(I think the statewide Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin results should have been red flags - Walker only barely lost) but the election was definitely not perceived as a toss-up.


Looking back

2000 and 2020 are inversions. Both were extremely close elections in reality, but both the data points and perceptions indicated wouldn't be close.

2004/2012 - were close in margins, but the leads for the respective candidates were in reality always much more solid than perceived.

For dumb reasons people assumed 2016 would be another 1988.

Reading what you’re saying, 2024 could genuinely be a reverse 2004 lol

Yup I actually think 2022 looks a lot like 2002. Democrats actually did fairly well in statewide races in 2002 - they picked up governorships in PA/WI/MI and held them in IA. The problem was they did horrendously in OH/FL/CO, lost a Senate seat in MO, and didn't make much headway in VA. Kerry's path ran through swing states which 2002 indicated leaned strongly R.

2022 indicates Democrats have a narrow, but clear advantage in MI/PA/WI and a slight lean in GA/AZ/NV.

[Joe Biden 2028]

2020 - This was universally perceived as an almost done deal. Trump was down in "most" polls allowing the ones which were closer to reality to be discounted, and the media transformed into such an echo chamber that even many Republicans and Trump supporters were convinced Biden was up 7+. In reality, 2018 results should have warned Democrats that even with third party consolidation from 2016, Trump had also consolidated his base(I think the statewide Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin results should have been red flags - Walker only barely lost) but the election was definitely not perceived as a toss-up.

The thing about 2020 is that not only was Biden expected to win by more than he did, but people also thought Democrats would do way better downballot. Especially at the House level, Democrats got so carried away and even a lot of Republican operatives were dooming. Hell, I remember people on my side of the aisle thought Dan Crenshaw was in trouble.

In 2020, though, the general consensus was that it was a tossup (or maybe even that Trump was a slight favorite) until about May.  Then, by election day, it almost seemed like the election was a foregone conclusion for Biden.

Yeah, I think COVID basically over adjusted the narrative from being pure tossup to likely Biden/D-landslide, especially within pundit circles. In hindsight, it was probably close to a tossup all along with COVID giving Biden just enough of the boost he needed to win.

One observation I will make:

Preceding midterms were far superior predictors of the following presidential election than polling or vibes.

1998 - Democrats outperformed in swing districts, gained House seats, and performed well on a difficult Senate map plus won IA gov. However, they came up short, especially in MO/NH/Kentucky/GA/CO which meant a bunch of Clinton states were going to be tough.

2002 - Democrats won governorships in PA/WI/MI/IA/NJ suggesting Kerry had a solid blue wall. However, the Democrats lost almost all of their reaches - CO/NH/GA/MO Sen, and did horrendously in Florida/Ohio - a signal both would be very tough lifts in 2004. VA legislative elections in 2003 also foreshadowed things weren't ready yet. I actually feel Jeb Bush winning by 13% was a pretty good preview for 2004, but people chose to ignore it. Anyway, only two states deviated. Kerry gained NH despite an abysmal 2002 for Democrats, and Bush comfortably won AZ despite a good 2002 for Ds.

2006 - Pretty much goes without saying

2010 - Almost the deviation except while the floor fell out for Democrats in the House, they won critical races in Nevada, along the West Coast, and Strickland/Sestek only lost narrowly in PA/MI amidst incredibly low D turnout. So it wasn't quite as good for generic R as it looked.

2014 - Democrats had no saving grace in the Senate races as they had in 2010. They really should have paid attention to the difference. Awful GOP candidates lost in 2010 and 2012. Candidate quality had very little to do with results in 2014. Even Brownback won. That implied candidate quality was no longer going to preempt partisanship, which previewed 2016.

2018 - Democrats did well in the suburbs, but they should have paid as much attention to where they came up short as to where they advanced. They lost Senate seats in MO/IN, and unlike 2006, there was no real sign of Democrats penetrating into deep "Red territory", merely expanding on places they had already advanced in 2016. That getting the old gang back together was not enough in Florida, Ohio, and Iowa should have been a warning.

2022 - This is an inverse 2018 and looks a lot like 2002. Republicans failed to expand on the type of gains they made in 2020. CA/NY were already places where PVI-wise Trump gained. In fact, there is not a single statewide swing state where they made a breakthrough.

Much like 2002 did for Democrats, it shows a pretty clear path for getting 230 or so EVs, but also no easy path to 270. In 2004, Democrats were going to have to win a state where they failed miserably in 2002 or several - Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri - and the prospects were poor in all of them. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona are all lean D based on 2022, and Georgia's federal race doesn't make it promising either. That said, the poor performance of Democrats in the judicial races in NC indicates that will likely remain out of reach so we get 2020 2.0.

I strongly agree with everything you said

2014 you can add signaled a lot of apathy from Democratic voters. They were willing to protest in 2014 in Ferguson but not vote? Bad signs for 2016

2018 showed Democrats still had gas in the upper Midwest. A fear Democrats had 2016-2017 was that the Midwest was gone

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

For those predicting the election in February:

Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen
and keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again
and don't speak to soon for the wheel's still in spin
and they're no telling who that it's naming.

[Joe Biden 2028]

2004 was widely viewed as a tossup towards the end

I personally viewed 2016 as a tossup but most didn't