This is the first election that will be viewed as truly a tossup since 2000

[Arizona Iced Tea]

2000 was the last true tossup election with what was expected to be a dogfight with Bush and Gore.
2004 Bush was decently favored due to the wartime boost and Kerry being a milquetoast candidate.
2008 Obama was heavily favored to win due to the recession, Iraq war anger, and McCain/Palin being very weak.
2012 Obama was decently favored to win with decent approval numbers and strong enthusiasm appeal, and a lackluster Romney campaign, although it was clear it wouldn't be as much as a slamdunk as 4 years ago.
2016 Clinton was heavily favored to win due to Trump's unpopularity and positive polling for her. She ended up losing, and 2016 became the first major upset win since 1948.
2020 Biden was heavily favored to win due to Trump's unpopularity, COVID, and had positive polling for him. He underperformed expectations, but still survived and won the election.

2024 is the first election since 2000 that will be viewed as a jumpball going though the year. There are both equally valid arguments for either Trump and Biden winning, and neither is more than a slight favorite at any point.

[emailking]

I recall there were times when 2004, 2008, and 2012 felt like a tossup, or at least the polling suggested that.

This might also not be considered a tossup when we see the polling like a month out.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I recall there were times when 2004, 2008, and 2012 felt like a tossup, or at least the polling suggested that.

This might also not be considered a tossup when we see the polling like a month out.

And Bush had a solid lead for most of 2000.

[Birdish]

I recall there were times when 2004, 2008, and 2012 felt like a tossup, or at least the polling suggested that.

This might also not be considered a tossup when we see the polling like a month out.

Yep, Kerry lead Bush repeatedly through 2004. Bush pulled ahead in the fall, but he looked to be in real danger before then.

McCain's personal popularity was enough to keep the polling close in 2008 untill the economy imploded.

With 2012, the trajectory went from a solid Obama victory over the summer to a tied race in the fall. Obama actually felt like he was in danger after the first debate.

[Birdish]

I recall there were times when 2004, 2008, and 2012 felt like a tossup, or at least the polling suggested that.

This might also not be considered a tossup when we see the polling like a month out.

And Bush had a solid lead for most of 2000.

Tom Bevan famously dismissed the tightening polls and predicted a +400 electoral vote Bush victory over Gore the weekend before the election. Vibes were very much in Bush's favor.

[BlueSwan]

I don’t view 2024 as a tossup at the moment. Trump is clearly the favourite and has been so for several months.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t view 2024 as a tossup at the moment. Trump is clearly the favourite and has been so for several months.

When was the last time Biden was the favorite?

[Whale Psychiatrist]

The only reason 2024 is being viewed as more of a toss-up than 2016 and 2020 is because Trump is the one leading in the polls this time. Both of those elections could have easily gone either way and I doubt this election will be meaningfully closer.

[BlueSwan]

I don’t view 2024 as a tossup at the moment. Trump is clearly the favourite and has been so for several months.

When was the last time Biden was the favorite?

That's a good question, because during the times where Biden was leading by an average of around 2 percentage points (for instance in late 22 or early 23 or even briefly in the late summer of 23) you could definitely argue that 2 percentage points wouldn't be enough to secure an EC win.

So the last time Biden was a "proper" favourite would probably be way back before the Afghanistan withdrawal (summer of 2021), which was about the time where Bidens numbers really started plummeting. And back then it wasn't even totally clear that Trump would even be running.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t view 2024 as a tossup at the moment. Trump is clearly the favourite and has been so for several months.

When was the last time Biden was the favorite?

That's a good question, because during the times where Biden was leading by an average of around 2 percentage points (for instance in late 22 or early 23 or even briefly in the late summer of 23) you could definitely argue that 2 percentage points wouldn't be enough to secure an EC win.

So the last time Biden was a "proper" favourite would probably be way back before the Afghanistan withdrawal (summer of 2021), which was about the time where Bidens numbers really started plummeting. And back then it wasn't even totally clear that Trump would even be running.

When was the last time the race was a toss-up?

And when did it become clear Trump would run?

[BlueSwan]

I don’t view 2024 as a tossup at the moment. Trump is clearly the favourite and has been so for several months.

When was the last time Biden was the favorite?

That's a good question, because during the times where Biden was leading by an average of around 2 percentage points (for instance in late 22 or early 23 or even briefly in the late summer of 23) you could definitely argue that 2 percentage points wouldn't be enough to secure an EC win.

So the last time Biden was a "proper" favourite would probably be way back before the Afghanistan withdrawal (summer of 2021), which was about the time where Bidens numbers really started plummeting. And back then it wasn't even totally clear that Trump would even be running.

When was the last time the race was a toss-up?

And when did it become clear Trump would run?

I would say that I had the election as a toss-up in september 2023, maybe october too if I'm being generous. Since november I think Trump has been the favourite and more clearly so as time has passed by and Trump has kept a fairly stable lead both nationally and in swing states.

To me it has been clear since day 1 that Trump would run. Officially he announced his run on nov 15 2022. I guess to most people it became clear sometimes during 2022, but it really should have been clear to people much earlier.

[BigVic]

2012 the killing of OBL and Obama's incumbency contributed to his re-election win

[Minnesota Mike]

I don’t view 2024 as a tossup at the moment. Trump is clearly the favourite and has been so for several months.

When was the last time Biden was the favorite?

2-5-24 7am Central.

[SnowLabrador]

I don’t view 2024 as a tossup at the moment. Trump is clearly the favourite and has been so for several months.

When was the last time Biden was the favorite?

October 6, 2023.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's kind of subjective whetheryou look at it in hindsight or what theconventional wisdom was throughout the campaign.

I only really paid attention to the races from 2012 on, and to me they felt as follows:

-2012: Tossup throughout.
-2016:  Lean D until Comeygate, then tossup.
-2020: Lean D once Biden got the nomination.

In reality, with hindsight I would say (and including the elections from 2000-2008):
-2000: tossup.
-2004: Likely R.
-2008: Likely D.
-2012: Strong Lean D (Obama's popular vote margin wasn't a landslide, but the results he got in the Midwestern swing states are unimaginable now).
-2016: tossup.
-2020: Maybe tilt D at best in the end.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

I don’t view 2024 as a tossup at the moment. Trump is clearly the favourite and has been so for several months.

What’s ironic is that bush led gore by much bigger margins than trump throughout 2000.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not it's a 303 map do you know Ds overperform polls when it's time to vote like 22

[The Mikado]

You're underestimating how close both 2004 and 2012 seemed for good chunks of the race. 2004 was basically always a tossup (and was a super close general election) and 2012 really only broke heavily for Obama towards the very end.

[Dan the Roman]

I think there is a lot of hindsight. At the time, and I am ancient(well I started following this at 9-10)

2000: Lean R - Gore was down by double-digits in 1999, and until the summer of 2000, a GOP victory was seen as a foregone conclusion. That explains a lot of the enthusiasm among Clinton Democrats for McCain during the primaries, as few credited Gore with a chance. Then Gore suddenly became viable only to have Bush establish a steady lead. I know my parents on election night said "this is probably going to be a very short night" at 6PM. So 2000 is really the inverse of 2020, which was seen as Lean Biden until the first results came in.

2004 - Toss-up - It has to be understood that centrist Democrats always create an echo chamber where every GOP victory is accidental. Bush's victory in 2000, foreordained prior to November, became non-existent following the SCOTUS ruling, and everyone acted until 9/11 as if he was a lameduck. Then, even with his inflated numbers, they were treated as an aberration and a lot of stuff including Iraq was seen as a holding pattern until they fell back to Earth. The narrative and expectations, perhaps outside the Bush campaign itself were always a tossup as best as Democrats talked extensively about their ground game, whereas the Bush team generally worked silently.

2008 - No R had a chance. And that was especially true after the financial crisis, but really that only ensured it wouldn't be a respectable loss.

2012 - With hindsight it was lean D, but this was the inverse of 2004. The Obama campaign kept their cards close to their chests, while allowing the Romney camp to drive narratives about the campaign and polling. The result was a widespread consensus the election was a toss-up.

2016 - No one took seriously Trump winning. Not even after the Comey tape. Heck, most of his campaign didn't. It was just unthinkable he could actually become President. Nate Silver got trashed for even suggesting it was possible if unlikely. This was clearly a willful misreading of the 2014-2015 data but it was what it was.

2020 - This was universally perceived as an almost done deal. Trump was down in "most" polls allowing the ones which were closer to reality to be discounted, and the media transformed into such an echo chamber that even many Republicans and Trump supporters were convinced Biden was up 7+. In reality, 2018 results should have warned Democrats that even with third party consolidation from 2016, Trump had also consolidated his base(I think the statewide Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin results should have been red flags - Walker only barely lost) but the election was definitely not perceived as a toss-up.


Looking back

2000 and 2020 are inversions. Both were extremely close elections in reality, but both the data points and perceptions indicated wouldn't be close.

2004/2012 - were close in margins, but the leads for the respective candidates were in reality always much more solid than perceived.

For dumb reasons people assumed 2016 would be another 1988.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

I think there is a lot of hindsight. At the time, and I am ancient(well I started following this at 9-10)

2000: Lean R - Gore was down by double-digits in 1999, and until the summer of 2000, a GOP victory was seen as a foregone conclusion. That explains a lot of the enthusiasm among Clinton Democrats for McCain during the primaries, as few credited Gore with a chance. Then Gore suddenly became viable only to have Bush establish a steady lead. I know my parents on election night said "this is probably going to be a very short night" at 6PM. So 2000 is really the inverse of 2020, which was seen as Lean Biden until the first results came in.

2004 - Toss-up - It has to be understood that centrist Democrats always create an echo chamber where every GOP victory is accidental. Bush's victory in 2000, foreordained prior to November, became non-existent following the SCOTUS ruling, and everyone acted until 9/11 as if he was a lameduck. Then, even with his inflated numbers, they were treated as an aberration and a lot of stuff including Iraq was seen as a holding pattern until they fell back to Earth. The narrative and expectations, perhaps outside the Bush campaign itself were always a tossup as best as Democrats talked extensively about their ground game, whereas the Bush team generally worked silently.

2008 - No R had a chance. And that was especially true after the financial crisis, but really that only ensured it wouldn't be a respectable loss.

2012 - With hindsight it was lean D, but this was the inverse of 2004. The Obama campaign kept their cards close to their chests, while allowing the Romney camp to drive narratives about the campaign and polling. The result was a widespread consensus the election was a toss-up.

2016 - No one took seriously Trump winning. Not even after the Comey tape. Heck, most of his campaign didn't. It was just unthinkable he could actually become President. Nate Silver got trashed for even suggesting it was possible if unlikely. This was clearly a willful misreading of the 2014-2015 data but it was what it was.

2020 - This was universally perceived as an almost done deal. Trump was down in "most" polls allowing the ones which were closer to reality to be discounted, and the media transformed into such an echo chamber that even many Republicans and Trump supporters were convinced Biden was up 7+. In reality, 2018 results should have warned Democrats that even with third party consolidation from 2016, Trump had also consolidated his base(I think the statewide Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin results should have been red flags - Walker only barely lost) but the election was definitely not perceived as a toss-up.


Looking back

2000 and 2020 are inversions. Both were extremely close elections in reality, but both the data points and perceptions indicated wouldn't be close.

2004/2012 - were close in margins, but the leads for the respective candidates were in reality always much more solid than perceived.

For dumb reasons people assumed 2016 would be another 1988.

Reading what you’re saying, 2024 could genuinely be a reverse 2004 lol

[Arizona Iced Tea]

You're underestimating how close both 2004 and 2012 seemed for good chunks of the race. 2004 was basically always a tossup (and was a super close general election) and 2012 really only broke heavily for Obama towards the very end.

There was a brief moment in 2012 after the first debate when people thought "Obama might actually lose this", but for 80% of the campaign most people were expecting 4 more years.

[Roll Roons]

2020 - This was universally perceived as an almost done deal. Trump was down in "most" polls allowing the ones which were closer to reality to be discounted, and the media transformed into such an echo chamber that even many Republicans and Trump supporters were convinced Biden was up 7+. In reality, 2018 results should have warned Democrats that even with third party consolidation from 2016, Trump had also consolidated his base(I think the statewide Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin results should have been red flags - Walker only barely lost) but the election was definitely not perceived as a toss-up.

The thing about 2020 is that not only was Biden expected to win by more than he did, but people also thought Democrats would do way better downballot. Especially at the House level, Democrats got so carried away and even a lot of Republican operatives were dooming. Hell, I remember people on my side of the aisle thought Dan Crenshaw was in trouble.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2020 - This was universally perceived as an almost done deal. Trump was down in "most" polls allowing the ones which were closer to reality to be discounted, and the media transformed into such an echo chamber that even many Republicans and Trump supporters were convinced Biden was up 7+. In reality, 2018 results should have warned Democrats that even with third party consolidation from 2016, Trump had also consolidated his base(I think the statewide Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin results should have been red flags - Walker only barely lost) but the election was definitely not perceived as a toss-up.

The thing about 2020 is that not only was Biden expected to win by more than he did, but people also thought Democrats would do way better downballot. Especially at the House level, Democrats got so carried away and even a lot of Republican operatives were dooming. Hell, I remember people on my side of the aisle thought Dan Crenshaw was in trouble.

In 2020, though, the general consensus was that it was a tossup (or maybe even that Trump was a slight favorite) until about May.  Then, by election day, it almost seemed like the election was a foregone conclusion for Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2020 - This was universally perceived as an almost done deal. Trump was down in "most" polls allowing the ones which were closer to reality to be discounted, and the media transformed into such an echo chamber that even many Republicans and Trump supporters were convinced Biden was up 7+. In reality, 2018 results should have warned Democrats that even with third party consolidation from 2016, Trump had also consolidated his base(I think the statewide Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin results should have been red flags - Walker only barely lost) but the election was definitely not perceived as a toss-up.

The thing about 2020 is that not only was Biden expected to win by more than he did, but people also thought Democrats would do way better downballot. Especially at the House level, Democrats got so carried away and even a lot of Republican operatives were dooming. Hell, I remember people on my side of the aisle thought Dan Crenshaw was in trouble.

In 2020, though, the general consensus was that it was a tossup (or maybe even that Trump was a slight favorite) until about May.  Then, by election day, it almost seemed like the election was a foregone conclusion for Biden.

Yeah, I think COVID basically over adjusted the narrative from being pure tossup to likely Biden/D-landslide, especially within pundit circles. In hindsight, it was probably close to a tossup all along with COVID giving Biden just enough of the boost he needed to win.

[Dan the Roman]

2020 - This was universally perceived as an almost done deal. Trump was down in "most" polls allowing the ones which were closer to reality to be discounted, and the media transformed into such an echo chamber that even many Republicans and Trump supporters were convinced Biden was up 7+. In reality, 2018 results should have warned Democrats that even with third party consolidation from 2016, Trump had also consolidated his base(I think the statewide Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin results should have been red flags - Walker only barely lost) but the election was definitely not perceived as a toss-up.

The thing about 2020 is that not only was Biden expected to win by more than he did, but people also thought Democrats would do way better downballot. Especially at the House level, Democrats got so carried away and even a lot of Republican operatives were dooming. Hell, I remember people on my side of the aisle thought Dan Crenshaw was in trouble.

In 2020, though, the general consensus was that it was a tossup (or maybe even that Trump was a slight favorite) until about May.  Then, by election day, it almost seemed like the election was a foregone conclusion for Biden.

Yeah, I think COVID basically over adjusted the narrative from being pure tossup to likely Biden/D-landslide, especially within pundit circles. In hindsight, it was probably close to a tossup all along with COVID giving Biden just enough of the boost he needed to win.

One observation I will make:

Preceding midterms were far superior predictors of the following presidential election than polling or vibes.

1998 - Democrats outperformed in swing districts, gained House seats, and performed well on a difficult Senate map plus won IA gov. However, they came up short, especially in MO/NH/Kentucky/GA/CO which meant a bunch of Clinton states were going to be tough.

2002 - Democrats won governorships in PA/WI/MI/IA/NJ suggesting Kerry had a solid blue wall. However, the Democrats lost almost all of their reaches - CO/NH/GA/MO Sen, and did horrendously in Florida/Ohio - a signal both would be very tough lifts in 2004. VA legislative elections in 2003 also foreshadowed things weren't ready yet. I actually feel Jeb Bush winning by 13% was a pretty good preview for 2004, but people chose to ignore it. Anyway, only two states deviated. Kerry gained NH despite an abysmal 2002 for Democrats, and Bush comfortably won AZ despite a good 2002 for Ds.

2006 - Pretty much goes without saying

2010 - Almost the deviation except while the floor fell out for Democrats in the House, they won critical races in Nevada, along the West Coast, and Strickland/Sestek only lost narrowly in PA/MI amidst incredibly low D turnout. So it wasn't quite as good for generic R as it looked.

2014 - Democrats had no saving grace in the Senate races as they had in 2010. They really should have paid attention to the difference. Awful GOP candidates lost in 2010 and 2012. Candidate quality had very little to do with results in 2014. Even Brownback won. That implied candidate quality was no longer going to preempt partisanship, which previewed 2016.

2018 - Democrats did well in the suburbs, but they should have paid as much attention to where they came up short as to where they advanced. They lost Senate seats in MO/IN, and unlike 2006, there was no real sign of Democrats penetrating into deep "Red territory", merely expanding on places they had already advanced in 2016. That getting the old gang back together was not enough in Florida, Ohio, and Iowa should have been a warning.

2022 - This is an inverse 2018 and looks a lot like 2002. Republicans failed to expand on the type of gains they made in 2020. CA/NY were already places where PVI-wise Trump gained. In fact, there is not a single statewide swing state where they made a breakthrough.

Much like 2002 did for Democrats, it shows a pretty clear path for getting 230 or so EVs, but also no easy path to 270. In 2004, Democrats were going to have to win a state where they failed miserably in 2002 or several - Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri - and the prospects were poor in all of them. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona are all lean D based on 2022, and Georgia's federal race doesn't make it promising either. That said, the poor performance of Democrats in the judicial races in NC indicates that will likely remain out of reach so we get 2020 2.0.