Michigan will not vote to the right of Pennsylvania.

[Tekken_Guy]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

You want people to ignore every state poll except for PA? What?

[Tekken_Guy]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

You want people to ignore every state poll except for PA? What?

The state polls are off and I feel that they are overinflating Trump’s performance with minorities.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

You want people to ignore every state poll except for PA? What?

The state polls are off and I feel that they are overinflating Trump’s performance with minorities.

Don't you think they are overinflating Biden's performance with WWC?

[Tekken_Guy]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

You want people to ignore every state poll except for PA? What?

The state polls are off and I feel that they are overinflating Trump’s performance with minorities.

Don't you think they are overinflating Biden's performance with WWC?

The most recent Morning Consult poll show Trump winning MI whites by 12 points, around the same as his 2020 performance, and winning noncollege voters by 17 points compared to 5 points in 2022. They don’t have detailed race+education breakdowns but that indicates Trump’s at least matching his 2020 WWC showing in polls.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

You want people to ignore every state poll except for PA? What?

The state polls are off and I feel that they are overinflating Trump’s performance with minorities.

Don't you think they are overinflating Biden's performance with WWC?

The most recent Morning Consult poll show Trump winning MI whites by 12 points, around the same as his 2020 performance, and winning noncollege voters by 17 points compared to 5 points in 2022. They don’t have detailed race+education breakdowns but that indicates Trump’s at least matching his 2020 WWC showing in polls.

If he's matching his WWC showings, all he needs to do is just match his suburban showings in places like Oakland, Ingham, and Kent. Coalition shift among minority voters along with turnout differentials would probably deliver Trump the state.

[Tekken_Guy]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

You want people to ignore every state poll except for PA? What?

The state polls are off and I feel that they are overinflating Trump’s performance with minorities.

Don't you think they are overinflating Biden's performance with WWC?

The most recent Morning Consult poll show Trump winning MI whites by 12 points, around the same as his 2020 performance, and winning noncollege voters by 17 points compared to 5 points in 2022. They don’t have detailed race+education breakdowns but that indicates Trump’s at least matching his 2020 WWC showing in polls.

If he's matching his WWC showings, all the needs to do is just match his suburban showings in places like Oakland, Ingham, and Kent. Coalition shift among minority voters along with turnout differentials would probably deliver Trump the state.

And Trump just needs to match his WWC showings in PA and suburban showings in the Philly Collar and Pittsburgh suburbs, and he can win PA off gains in Philly itself.

Why would Trump make his gains in MI but not PA?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

You want people to ignore every state poll except for PA? What?

The state polls are off and I feel that they are overinflating Trump’s performance with minorities.

Don't you think they are overinflating Biden's performance with WWC?

The most recent Morning Consult poll show Trump winning MI whites by 12 points, around the same as his 2020 performance, and winning noncollege voters by 17 points compared to 5 points in 2022. They don’t have detailed race+education breakdowns but that indicates Trump’s at least matching his 2020 WWC showing in polls.

If he's matching his WWC showings, all the needs to do is just match his suburban showings in places like Oakland, Ingham, and Kent. Coalition shift among minority voters along with turnout differentials would probably deliver Trump the state.

And Trump just needs to match his WWC showings in PA and suburban showings in the Philly Collar and Pittsburgh suburbs, and he can win PA off gains in Philly itself.

Why would Trump make his gains in MI but not PA?

PA is more educated than MI tbf

[Tekken_Guy]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

You want people to ignore every state poll except for PA? What?

The state polls are off and I feel that they are overinflating Trump’s performance with minorities.

Don't you think they are overinflating Biden's performance with WWC?

The most recent Morning Consult poll show Trump winning MI whites by 12 points, around the same as his 2020 performance, and winning noncollege voters by 17 points compared to 5 points in 2022. They don’t have detailed race+education breakdowns but that indicates Trump’s at least matching his 2020 WWC showing in polls.

If he's matching his WWC showings, all the needs to do is just match his suburban showings in places like Oakland, Ingham, and Kent. Coalition shift among minority voters along with turnout differentials would probably deliver Trump the state.

And Trump just needs to match his WWC showings in PA and suburban showings in the Philly Collar and Pittsburgh suburbs, and he can win PA off gains in Philly itself.

Why would Trump make his gains in MI but not PA?

PA is more educated than MI tbf

Not by much.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

NV, AZ and MI have R biased

[mjba257]

One thing we need to consider is the lefty protest voters, of which there are more in Michigan than Pennsylvania. It's not just Arabs, but also college lefties in Ann Arbor who may be prone to vote third party or just outright abstain. Same thing in Wisconsin with Madison. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, doesn't really have those lefty pockets.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

There are just as many Jews in MI as there are Arabs, so the few thousand that Muslims vote R will be cancelled out by the Jewish vote

[kwabbit]

Michigan might not vote to the right of Pennsylvania, but the ingredients are there. If you were to make a simple model based on a state's racial composition and educational attainment, Michigan would be to the right of Pennsylvania. They are about equally White and Michigan is less educated. The fact that Michigan has voted to the left of PA despite demographics is interesting but it's not immutable. Remember that Iowa voted 15 points to the left of Missouri based on 'local' factors and then quickly swung right.

I/P is also more harmful to Biden in Michigan than any other state. You say that a collapse in Arab support would only yield a 1% swing. That's true but Michigan and Pennsylvania were only separated by 1.8 points in 2020. That plus the difference in education rate would be enough to put the two states equal. There can also be a variety of smaller factors that would cause a further swing. States can have their own environments sometimes. Less so in Presidential years but it can still happen.

[Sir Mohamed]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

Yup, that's a pretty good post. Hasn't MI polling a history of being messy? Didn't we have a 2 polls a few weeks ago that were Biden +8 and Trump +8? Neither candidate will come close to winning the state by 8 pts. And a 16 pt. difference is just laughable.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Let’s be real here:

-Arabs likely gave Biden less than 1% of his margin victory in 2020. Even if both candidates got the same number of Arab votes in 2020 Biden would still have won the state by around 2 points.
-Biden is not going to see a crash in support/turnout in Detroit and not see one in Philadelphia.
-If Biden is making gains in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, he’s likely doing the same in suburbs of Detroit like in Oakland County, in the large College Counties (Washtenaw/Ingham/Kalamazoo), and in the Grand Rapids area.
-If Biden is collapsing in WWC areas like Macomb County or Flint/Saginaw, I’d imagine he’s losing ground in NEPA/SWPA/Erie as well.

Can’t we just accept that polling is just messed up? Michigan seems to be subject to the same polling issues that are giving Trump yawning margins in the sun belt battleground states .

Yup, that's a pretty good post. Hasn't MI polling a history of being messy? Didn't we have a 2 polls a few weeks ago that were Biden +8 and Trump +8? Neither candidate will come close to winning the state by 8 pts. And a 16 pt. difference is just laughable.

Don’t forget MI Gov 2022. Lord almighty

[Vern]

MI could be going the way of OH and IA and swinging right. While WI and PA are just staying the same. It’s not that hard to believe.

[Devils30]

MI could be going the way of OH and IA and swinging right. While WI and PA are just staying the same. It’s not that hard to believe.

MI rurals have already swung right like OH and IA, MI has many Dem trending suburbs while IA, OH are more rural states. Outside Dearborn, the swings/trends from MI to PA are going to be extremely correlated.

[mileslunn]

MI could be going the way of OH and IA and swinging right. While WI and PA are just staying the same. It’s not that hard to believe.

MI rurals have already swung right like OH and IA, MI has many Dem trending suburbs while IA, OH are more rural states. Outside Dearborn, the swings/trends from MI to PA are going to be extremely correlated.

Ohio is actually same in rural proportion as Michigan as they have Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati.  Big reason more Republican is further south so much larger Evangelical population and also includes part of Appalachia which has swung hard towards GOP.  And Columbus suburbs trending strongly D while Cleveland suburbs are mixed with more working class areas like Lorain County, Lake County and southern Cuyahoga County following similar pattern to Macomb County whereas western parts of Cuyahoga County more like Oakland County.  Cincinnati is starting from a much stronger Republican place to begin with and GOP has long dominated there.  In fact Bush won Hamilton County in 04 while Biden won it by double digits so it is swinging left.  Collar counties around Cincinnati more like WOW counties in Wisconsin in terms of GOP strength not like anything in Michigan or Pennsylvania for suburban counties.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

One thing we need to consider is the lefty protest voters, of which there are more in Michigan than Pennsylvania. It's not just Arabs, but also college lefties in Ann Arbor who may be prone to vote third party or just outright abstain. Same thing in Wisconsin with Madison. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, doesn't really have those lefty pockets.

My assessment is that most of those hard-left youth voters are really not voters at all.

[mjba257]

One thing we need to consider is the lefty protest voters, of which there are more in Michigan than Pennsylvania. It's not just Arabs, but also college lefties in Ann Arbor who may be prone to vote third party or just outright abstain. Same thing in Wisconsin with Madison. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, doesn't really have those lefty pockets.

My assessment is that most of those hard-left youth voters are really not voters at all.

They are definitely low propensity voters, no question. They turned out for Obama in '08 and in a lesser extent '12 because he had a unique appeal to that group. Most of them became Bernie supporters in '16, and many stayed home or voted Jill Stein in the general, and we know how that turned out. In 2020, they turned out merely to vote against Trump, but now in '24, they think Biden is committing a genocide, so the lesser of two evils argument won't work, because if you think he's committing a genocide, what is possibly more evil than that?