Thoughts on the current 2024 Atlas Consensus?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here is the current Atlas consensus forecast for 2024:



Imo looks way too simillar to the 2020 election results just shifted ~1 point right. One notable thing is that overall Atlas consensus narrowly believes Biden is more likely to hold AZ than NV.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Not bad, flip NV and WI and you have my prediction

Also that map is very cool where did you make it?

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

MI being left of PA and WI is mind-boggling.

[emailking]

How is this consensus forecast determined?

[seskoog]

MI being left of PA and WI is mind-boggling.

MI has been left of PA and WI every election since 1996

[Utilitarian Governance]

MI being left of PA and WI is mind-boggling.

MI has been left of PA and WI every election since 1996

I could see it as the inverse of 2020 where GA voted to the left of NC for the first time since 2000. And 10/7 significantly harmed Biden among Muslims and urbanites. This is a bold prediction, but it's possible that WI could vote equal to or to the left of Illinois if turnout plummets in Chicago but he's able to hold onto the suburbs.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm surprised the consensus is that Biden-friendly.

I'm not too far off, maybe Nevada and Pennsylvania could be a shade bluer.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm surprised the consensus is that Biden-friendly.

I'm not too far off, maybe Nevada and Pennsylvania could be a shade bluer.

I think it's because like 90% of Atlas rates "the big 6" as tossups, so a few more lean Ds than lean Rs are enough to make the state tilt narrowly Biden. Perhaps a good handful of those Lean Ds were from when vibes were better for Biden and those people have just never updated.

[Tekken_Guy]

MI being left of PA and WI is mind-boggling.

MI has been left of PA and WI every election since 1996

I could see it as the inverse of 2020 where GA voted to the left of NC for the first time since 2000. And 10/7 significantly harmed Biden among Muslims and urbanites. This is a bold prediction, but it's possible that WI could vote equal to or to the left of Illinois if turnout plummets in Chicago but he's able to hold onto the suburbs.

Muslims gave Biden less than 1% of his margin in MI, and there are plenty of urbanites in PA and WI he’d be losing ground with at the same time.