A Trump conviction is already losing its significance

[pbrower2a]

My view has always been that the electoral impact depends on which trials and charges Trump is actually convicted in/on. I don't think a conviction in the Manhattan trial will make any dent in his support, and the civil cases don't matter. The classified documents case might matter, depending on the details that come out, especially if it involves foreign powers or nuclear items. The Georgia case also might make a difference, depending on which charges he's convicted of. If, for example, the only charges Trump is convicted on are something like "filing false documents" then I don't think it will affect the election at all. You need something juicier and more nefarious sounding to sway people.

Trump's people will see any conviction as proof that dangerous cabals seek to rig the election on behalf of the "Demonrat" Party. 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Trying to draw conclusion from this polling question is very silly.
There's an enormous gap between imagining a hypothetical where Trump is "convicted" of unspecified charges in the abstract, and actually seeing Trump in a jail cell.

I will confidently bet anyone a substantial portion of my life savings that Trump will not be elected President if he is in prison on Election Day.

[oldtimer]

I feel like Democrats underestimated how much the how emails issue would effect Clinton. It was really stupid, but the whole idea of wrongdoing that kept looming proved to be enough to alter the election. Voters do care and it's reflected by the fact that Trump is not actually gaining support but retaining his base. This is not and never has been a persuasion election, it's a turnout election which is why the Trump campaign is so hell bent on depressing Democratic turnout by saying "it's over" months out.

It didn't.

The 1st time Trump was beating Hillary in the polls was Oct. 2015.

The public had already decided a year in advance, and the polls just yo-yo'ed due to non-responce bias during various media storms.

Big rewrite history here. To pretend that the emails scandal didn't effect Clinton is just nonsense.

It didn't, the first signs of trouble for Hillary came in March 2015, predating Trump:

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/03/31/politics/clinton-slips-battleground-states-poll/index.html

Hillary started losing the moment Obama's foreign policy crashed, people blamed Hillary as she was Secretary of State.

Wasn't John Kerry Secretary of State at that point?

People didn't blame Kerry for the Arab Spring , they thought he took over to clean up Hillary's mess.

Everything that went wrong after 2012 was blamed on Hillary, regardless if she was at fault.

That's something I've always wondered about. My recollection is that Hillary's term as Secretary of State didn't have any major disasters during it, but the wheels pretty much came off US foreign policy once she left. Was it that she was adroitly keeping a lot of plates in the air and that the Obama+Kerry team weren't able to manage foreign relations as well, or is it that she set a lot of fires and and then bailed before they went out of control?

Probably both.

I remember reading that Hillary and Susan Rice had barged into Obama's office screaming and demanding that he bomb Libya (imagine the scene), of course that could have been published to shift the blame.

A big blame game was going on for years:

Obama laments fallout from Libya on White House foreign policy.
https://www.ft.com/content/faab6a96-e7ac-11e5-a09b-1f8b0d268c39

Clinton blames Obama for Libya, Syria messes
https://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/hillary-clinton-blames-obama-for-libya-syria-mess-221995

[wnwnwn]

Months ago, polls showed that if Trump was convicted, huge swaths would change their vote and he would lose in a landslide.
Now in the NBC poll, if Trump is convicted the election would only be Biden +2, which could be a Trump electoral college win.

As I've been saying for months, the more Trump's conviction is talked about and doesn't seem far-fetched, the less it will matter. Just like how originally polls showed that if Trump was indicted he would lose tons of support but by the time he was indicted, everyone already expected it.
This is a trend that will continue. As we get further into thr year, the potential of Trump being convicted will affect voters choices less and less. Not to mention that even asking the question about it in a poll is a leading question so the actual results would probably be even less different.

Alternate take: virtually everyone who was already willing to vote for a disgusting, lying, fraudulent, rapist, traitor were lying when they said that a conviction would actually matter to them. (Maybe they were lying to themselves, too, or maybe just the pollsters.)

Hating between 45%-50% of the voting public is not a healthy way to live, man. Democratic voters want to raise my taxes, allow more low IQ "legal" immigrants like the one who murdered my mom's uncle, and regulate businesses to death, but I don't hate them.

Do you think Big Business are actually agaisnt the current border situation?

[wbrocks67]

This OP is aging like milk already

NBC: 7% shift (Trump +5 to Biden +2)
Marist: 5% shift (Biden +1 to Biden +6)

A 5-7% shift nationally is most definitely not 'losing its significance'

[Progressive Pessimist]

This OP is aging like milk already

NBC: 7% shift (Trump +5 to Biden +2)
Marist: 5% shift (Biden +1 to Biden +6)

A 5-7% shift nationally is most definitely not 'losing its significance'

And after yesterday the possibility of Trump being convicted before the election went back up. Though we'll have to see what the Supreme Court does.

[Pericles]

A conviction is a situation we really have no precedent for, so we'll just have to fly blind.

[Cyrusman]

Trump has been in the political stoplight for 8 years and 7 months. This summer will be 9 years. Through these 9 years he's been in the spotlight and involved in many scandals', moral and legal issues. He attempted to overturn the 2020 election, and convinced his base to storm the capital.

Through last year he was indicated 4 times, all while his poll numbers increased.

After all of this, who the hell are the people out there who would vote for trump as a 4 time indicted presidential candidate with all the baggage he has, BUT won't vote for him if he's technically found guilty?

I just find it hard to believe there's that many people out there. Trump is a baked in opinion for 99% of the U.S.

[2016]

Ya'll wrong here: A Trump January 6th Trial and subsequent Conviction is now the only way to save the Biden Presidency.

Given what happened yesterday if the 2024 Presidential Election goes ahead without a verdict in Trumps J6 Subversion Case Trump I think will win the Election.

Hard to fathom this but everyone needs to come to terms with that.

In 2016 the Hillary Clinton eMail Controversy was in the end too much to overcome for her.
In 2020 President Joe Bidens Age will eventually sink his Campaign.

Remember: Both in 2016 & 2020 60 % of Voters decided whom to vote for before before August. That was a huge deal then and it is now.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ya'll wrong here: A Trump January 6th Trial and subsequent Conviction is now the only way to save the Biden Presidency.

Given what happened yesterday if the 2024 Presidential Election goes ahead without a verdict in Trumps J6 Subversion Case Trump I think will win the Election.

Hard to fathom this but everyone needs to come to terms with that.

In 2016 the Hillary Clinton eMail Controversy was in the end too much to overcome for her.
In 2020 President Joe Bidens Age will eventually sink his Campaign.

Remember: Both in 2016 & 2020 60 % of Voters decided whom to vote for before before August. That was a huge deal then and it is now.

Biden is very much still in this even without a conviction.