The state polls. What's going on?

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Looking at the 7 states that matter, here are the polls in the past three months:

AZ: T+3,T+4,T+8,T+4,T+2,T+5 (median T+4)
GA: T+8,T+2,T+3,T+3,T+3,T+11 (median T+3)
MI: T+5,T+8,T+4,T+10,T+5,tie,B+2,T+5 (median T+5)
NV: T+8,T+2,T+3,T+3,T+3,T+11 (median T+3)
NC: T+8, T+9, T+10 (median T+9)
PA: B+1,T+3,B+8,B+3,B+1,T+2,T+3,T+4,T+4 (median T+2)
WI: tie,T+5,T+4,T+1,tie,B+2,B+2 (median T+1)

In this span, Trump has led by between 1-4 in the national "popular" vote. Outside of Michigan, none of these really fail the smell test, and really, are OH and MI that different? You have true countervailing trends in PA and WI. MI, not really. The growth of the second-tier cities was always overstated. Further, moving from the hardest to easiest VBM state from 2016->2020 made a difference, however the drop-off each cycle 2020->2021->2022->2023->2024(so far) we've seen in VBM utilization suggests this will be a factor, but less of a factor.

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[Skill and Chance]

So taken literally this would be an Ohio 2016 event in Michigan, a modest right trend in NC and a modest left trend everywhere else.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

So taken literally this would be an Ohio 2016 event in Michigan, a modest right trend in NC and a modest left trend everywhere else.

Pretty much, with NV being a wildcard. Is that reasonable?

[Skill and Chance]

So taken literally this would be an Ohio 2016 event in Michigan, a modest right trend in NC and a modest left trend everywhere else.

Pretty much, with NV being a wildcard. Is that reasonable?

TBH I don't get why the Trump swing would be so amplified in Michigan.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MI is overestimating Trump. Call me a hack all you want. He’s favored there but it’s not going to be +8 lol

[Skill and Chance]

MI is overestimating Trump. Call me a hack all you want. He’s favored there but it’s not going to be +8 lol

Suppose hypothetically that Michigan Arab Americans abruptly voted like Southern white Evangelicals.  How much would that shift the statewide margin?  Would Biden have still won in 2020?  Is the maximum possible swing a 1% thing, a 5% thing, or a 10% thing?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 302/225 map anyways all polls are MOE don't be so worried the polls overestimated Rs last time.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

MI is overestimating Trump. Call me a hack all you want. He’s favored there but it’s not going to be +8 lol

Suppose hypothetically that Michigan Arab Americans abruptly voted like Southern white Evangelicals.  How much would that shift the statewide margin?  Would Biden have still won in 2020?  Is the maximum possible swing a 1% thing, a 5% thing, or a 10% thing?

I think it is about a 3% swing so Trump would narrowly win - then another 3% could be swung from lower black turnout.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I agree with Riverwalk that Powell will win but I disagree with him on Trump winning it's VBM, and Provisions ballots whenever Eday is close goes to Ds that's why Biden won all the close races last time by 50 K

[Tekken_Guy]

MI is overestimating Trump. Call me a hack all you want. He’s favored there but it’s not going to be +8 lol

Suppose hypothetically that Michigan Arab Americans abruptly voted like Southern white Evangelicals.  How much would that shift the statewide margin?  Would Biden have still won in 2020?  Is the maximum possible swing a 1% thing, a 5% thing, or a 10% thing?

I think it is about a 3% swing so Trump would narrowly win - then another 3% could be swung from lower black turnout.

Biden would have still won by under a point. The Arab vote gave him roughly 1% of his statewide margin, so Trump winning them by the same margin would be a 2% swing.

[Skill and Chance]

MI is overestimating Trump. Call me a hack all you want. He’s favored there but it’s not going to be +8 lol

Suppose hypothetically that Michigan Arab Americans abruptly voted like Southern white Evangelicals.  How much would that shift the statewide margin?  Would Biden have still won in 2020?  Is the maximum possible swing a 1% thing, a 5% thing, or a 10% thing?

I think it is about a 3% swing so Trump would narrowly win - then another 3% could be swung from lower black turnout.

Biden would have still won by under a point. The Arab vote gave him roughly 1% of his statewide margin, so Trump winning them by the same margin would be a 2% swing.

OK, then this is not a reasonable explanation for a large Trump lead.