Who do you trust on 2024/presidential elections?

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

For me, the list is short:

Nate Cohn
Nate Silver
Dave Wasserman
Harry Enten
Steve Kornacki

[Redban]

Richard Baris

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Dave Wasserman
Alan Lichtman
Larry Sabato
Nate Silver
Nate Cohn
G. Elliot Morris
Myself

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Richard Baris

I wouldn’t. He comes off as intelligent on Twitter, and there are some false accusations about faking polls, but he’s a midwit.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Atlas Forum

In 2016, 0.4% of the forum was on the money with Hilary Clinton.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

I couldn’t come up with an exhaustive list, but Jon Ralston when the topic is Nevada.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

For me, the list is short:

Nate Cohn
Nate Silver
Dave Wasserman
Harry Enten
Steve Kornacki

One person I forgot, Sean Trende.

I currently follow 8 accounts on Twitter:

@politics_polls
@ppollingnumbers
@stevekornacki
@redistrict
@forecasterenten
@seantrende
@nate_cohn
@natesilver538

and I feel I get a (pretty) accurate pulse on elections.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

I couldn’t come up with an exhaustive list, but Jon Ralston when the topic is Nevada.

Ralston is not bad, so he's a good mention, but there's far too much opinion on his feed. I value his final prediction, but not worth digging through piles of feces to get to it.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Tencor's good at analysing results
Wasserman ofc for calls

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Chuck Todd the bellwether states are NM and OH, even if we don't win OH but Brown wins it's predictive of how Eday turns out, Chuck Todd said this in 2008 and watch out for NC  it's part of the Iron Triangle
 TX as well with Harris County

NM and OH have been Pred the winner since 1912 when NM became the state and OH since 1860 when the Civil War began

NM was never wrong on the PVI except 1976 and OH was wrong in 1960 and 2020/22 but usually they are Pred of Eday.

[LostInOhio]

Allan Lichtman has the best track record regardless of all the naysayers.

[7,052,770]

No one.

[emailking]

Biden.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Allan Lichtman has the best track record regardless of all the naysayers.

He really doesn't.

They "seem" to work because they're arbitrary, and because Lichtman changes his definition of what he's predicting depending on who wins. The Thirteen Keys are the equivalent of a confidence trick dressed up in the guise of academia.

The first six keys have explicit, testable definitions. They give the impression of a rigorous, mathematically definable process. The remaining seven keys  are completely arbitrary, lacking any testable definition, but cloaked in "you can trust me, I'm a professional" rhetoric to disguise that fact. Seven keys are also the number needed to decide a winner.

Originally, Lichtman said his Keys predicted the popular vote winner. He dropped that for his 2000 predictions, simply saying Gore would "win". After Gore lost, Lichtman claimed he was, as per his original work, just predicting the popular vote. After Trump lost the popular popular vote, Lichtman reversed himself, claiming that he was now predicting the "elected" President.

The Keys real title should be "well-informed smart guy guesses who will be President". If he was using a crystal ball or watching the flights of birds as a prop, everyone would dismiss him. But because he has successfully disguised his prop, he gets outsize attention, as witnessed by regular threads about him here.  "Professor 8 for 10 in calling Presidential elections" would be treated quite differently, yet that is exactly what the Keys are.