For the unskewers…why ignore Trump’s WWC/65+ underperformance?
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July 10, 2025, 11:03:20 AM
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  For the unskewers…why ignore Trump’s WWC/65+ underperformance?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: For the unskewers…why ignore Trump’s WWC/65+ underperformance?  (Read 784 times)
Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: February 05, 2024, 11:17:57 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on February 05, 2024, 10:46:31 PM
Quote from: Shaula🏳️‍⚧️ on February 04, 2024, 08:34:01 PM
You're absolutely correct.
Weird crosstabs end up evening out

I mean, this isn't always true. If Biden's share of the 65+ vote is underestimated by 5% and Trump's share of the 18-29 vote is underestimated by 5%, for example, that doesn't even out - it's a net positive for Biden, because the 65+ group is a larger share of the electorate than the 18-29 group.
But the 65+ is probably sampled in the poll at a higher rate than the actual election, so on net it probably comes close to canceling out.
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