For the unskewers…why ignore Trump’s WWC/65+ underperformance?

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Say the unskewers of the world are correct. Biden does a bit better with under 30s, the blacks, and registered democrats. Okay then, his polling deficit shrinks a bit.

At the same time, Biden is cutting deficits with WWC voters and 65+. We are asked to take one at face value by your camp, but not the others?

[DrScholl]

"The blacks"...

There were polls in 2020 that overestimated Biden's share of the White vote overall even with the working class portion. The pollsters are most likely not getting reliable samples or are getting ones that are too small.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

"The blacks"...

There were polls in 2020 that overestimated Biden's share of the White vote overall even with the working class portion. The pollsters are most likely not getting reliable samples or are getting ones that are too small.

Sounds like we agree, so what’s your issue?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We are getting so close to Eday the polls are all MOE it's almost March I will be an Eday judge let's hope for best and Biden gets reelected Prez forget these Trump polls

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

We are getting so close to Eday the polls are all MOE it's almost March I will be an Eday judge let's hope for best and Biden gets reelected Prez forget these Trump polls

OC - What would it take for you to vote for Trump?

[DrScholl]

"The blacks"...

There were polls in 2020 that overestimated Biden's share of the White vote overall even with the working class portion. The pollsters are most likely not getting reliable samples or are getting ones that are too small.

Sounds like we agree, so what’s your issue?

My issue is that some sketchy crosstabs are ignored while others are embraced.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

"The blacks"...

There were polls in 2020 that overestimated Biden's share of the White vote overall even with the working class portion. The pollsters are most likely not getting reliable samples or are getting ones that are too small.

Sounds like we agree, so what’s your issue?

My issue is that some sketchy crosstabs are ignored while others are embraced.

I don't think they're being ignored, but a couple of posters have spammed these threads with the same boardroom-style diatribes. I'm trying to take a step back, and say "okay, say these guys are right...but what about this?"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

You're absolutely correct.
Weird crosstabs end up evening out so there's not much of a point in going into them too much.

[Steve from Lambeth]

We are getting so close to Eday the polls are all MOE it's almost March I will be an Eday judge let's hope for best and Biden gets reelected Prez forget these Trump polls

OC - What would it take for you to vote for Trump?

olawakandi would not vote for any Republican under any circumstances.

[DrScholl]

"The blacks"...

There were polls in 2020 that overestimated Biden's share of the White vote overall even with the working class portion. The pollsters are most likely not getting reliable samples or are getting ones that are too small.

Sounds like we agree, so what’s your issue?

My issue is that some sketchy crosstabs are ignored while others are embraced.

I don't think they're being ignored, but a couple of posters have spammed these threads with the same boardroom-style diatribes. I'm trying to take a step back, and say "okay, say these guys are right...but what about this?"

If you don't like my answer then ignore my reply. You are trying to create an echo chamber on this board and it's simply futile effort. I simply think it's really early to say the election is settled, yet somehow that is deemed hateful and deranged. I'm certainly not trying to badger anyone into falling in line like some others.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

If you don't like my answer then ignore my reply. You are trying to create an echo chamber on this board and it's simply futile effort. I simply think it's really early to say the election is settled, yet somehow that is deemed hateful and deranged. I'm certainly not trying to badger anyone into falling in line like some others.

I don't want an echo chamber. I think this board is a bit optimistic for Democrats in its predictions, but that's to be understood. The ideological breakdown here is similar to r/politics, DU, or Daily Kos.

What I do have an issue is, with spam. A handful of users post the same 1-3 points in every poll thread, and make the board unreadable -- in no small part because there is a pile-on effect of people like me who call out the unskewing, and then people like yourself who come to the unskewers' defense. We're both contributing to the span, but let's attack the root first.

[DrScholl]

If you don't like my answer then ignore my reply. You are trying to create an echo chamber on this board and it's simply futile effort. I simply think it's really early to say the election is settled, yet somehow that is deemed hateful and deranged. I'm certainly not trying to badger anyone into falling in line like some others.

I don't want an echo chamber. I think this board is a bit optimistic for Democrats in its predictions, but that's to be understood. The ideological breakdown here is similar to r/politics, DU, or Daily Kos.

What I do have an issue is, with spam. A handful of users post the same 1-3 points in every poll thread, and make the board unreadable -- in no small part because there is a pile-on effect of people like me who call out the unskewing, and then people like yourself who come to the unskewers' defense. We're both contributing to the span, but let's attack the root first.

It's an open forum where people have a right to alternative opinions on polling especially when it overestimated Republicans in 2022 (as did prognosticators). It's not spam to state that the election isn't over in February or that polling crosstabs don't add up. I suggest logging on to FreeRepublic for a more favorable selection of posts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My general view on the age crosstabs is that age depolarization may occur around the margins but not to the extreme polls suggest where Seniors and Gen Z vote practically the same.
 
I think WWC voters, especially rural ones, really don't get enough discussion ironically. In 2020, Trump largely continued with modest gains in WWC communities, especially rural ones. If he can squeeze another 5 points out of places like rural WWC PA and WI can have huge implications on his pathway to victory in those states. Even though these voters are what defined Trump's 2016 win, I don't think it's a given they shift right, especially as Trump has slowly shifted his rhetoric and strategies over the past 8 years. In 2024 for instance, perhaps if the GOP tries too hard at messaging to non-white voters it could start to turn off some of these WWC voters and they just won't show up. Doubt that's the case but it's possible around the margins.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

It's an open forum where people have a right to alternative opinions on polling especially when it overestimated Republicans in 2022 (as did prognosticators). It's not spam to state that the election isn't over in February or that polling crosstabs don't add up.

Is some variation of the following three posts:

"Trump's >10% with black voters, toss it"
"Biden's not hitting 55% with U30 voters, scrap it"
"Biden's getting a lower % of dems than Trump is of republicans, ignore it"

At some point, a user no longer passes the Turing Test.

---

Anyhow, I think using the ignore list is cowardly, but it wouldn't even work here. Since the pile-on derails every thread with cascading quote posts.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

My general view on the age crosstabs is that age depolarization may occur around the margins but not to the extreme polls suggest where Seniors and Gen Z vote practically the same.
 
I think WWC voters, especially rural ones, really don't get enough discussion ironically. In 2020, Trump largely continued with modest gains in WWC communities, especially rural ones. If he can squeeze another 5 points out of places like rural WWC PA and WI can have huge implications on his pathway to victory in those states. Even though these voters are what defined Trump's 2016 win, I don't think it's a given they shift right, especially as Trump has slowly shifted his rhetoric and strategies over the past 8 years. In 2024 for instance, perhaps if the GOP tries too hard at messaging to non-white voters it could start to turn off some of these WWC voters and they just won't show up. Doubt that's the case but it's possible around the margins.

I think it depends on the how more than the what. As much as the racists on Twitter cried, the platinum plan stuff didn't make a difference. White voters don't dislike black people by and large -- they dislike crime. All black people aren't criminals, it's insane to believe that. Keep in mind the Midwestern metros were some of the first truly desegregated communities, following the Great Migration. Black people by and large care about the same issues as whites, whether it's education, housing, and yes, crime -- there are just differences in rural-urban characteristics and socioeconomic status that dictate priorities.

The Hispanic stuff is trickier. Like blacks, Hispanics also aren't one-trick ponies. Unfortunately, institutional republicans have decided to cast Hispanics as single-issue immigration voters, with the occasional anti-communist rhetoric. This *is* at odds with the WWC voters.

Improving 5% with black voters would pay great dividends since they are super-optimally distributed in the electoral college. Winning them means Georgia and Michigan move a bit right, as do Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada to a lesser extent. Improving 5% with Hispanics most likely would not flip a single state, including Arizona, given that college whites are rapidly displacing WWC.

[DrScholl]

It's an open forum where people have a right to alternative opinions on polling especially when it overestimated Republicans in 2022 (as did prognosticators). It's not spam to state that the election isn't over in February or that polling crosstabs don't add up.

Is some variation of the following three posts:

"Trump's >10% with black voters, toss it"
"Biden's not hitting 55% with U30 voters, scrap it"
"Biden's getting a lower % of dems than Trump is of republicans, ignore it"

At some point, a user no longer passes the Turing Test.

---

Anyhow, I think using the ignore list is cowardly, but it wouldn't even work here. Since the pile-on derails every thread with cascading quote posts.

The bolded is never even an argument that I've made because it's no secret that the Republican base is more united behind Trump than the Democratic base is behind Biden in a lot of polling. What is questionable is the idea that undecided Democrats are necessarily leaning Trump.

Calling me dumb and accusing me of lying about being Black is far more unintelligent behavior than questioning a poll, but whatever. You don't use the ignore list because you like to argue.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

The bolded is never even an argument that I've made because it's no secret that the Republican base is more united behind Trump than the Democratic base is behind Biden in a lot of polling. What is questionable is the idea that undecided Democrats are necessarily leaning Trump.

Calling me dumb and accusing me of lying about being Black is far more unintelligent behavior than questioning a poll, but whatever. You don't use the ignore list because you like to argue.

(1) Are you dim? I am calling out wbrocks67 here, who initiates the spam.
(2) You're not stupid because (you claim) you're black. You're stupid because you're stupid.

[DrScholl]

The bolded is never even an argument that I've made because it's no secret that the Republican base is more united behind Trump than the Democratic base is behind Biden in a lot of polling. What is questionable is the idea that undecided Democrats are necessarily leaning Trump.

Calling me dumb and accusing me of lying about being Black is far more unintelligent behavior than questioning a poll, but whatever. You don't use the ignore list because you like to argue.

(1) Are you dim? I am calling out wbrocks67 here, who initiates the spam.
(2) You're not stupid because (you claim) you're black. You're stupid because you're stupid.

Again, you don't click ignore because you like to argue. You're not stupid at are, you are malicious hateful miserable person who lives on the internet to create drama. But I'm going to be the better person and put you on ignore because that is where you belong. Goodbye.

[Devils30]

My general view on the age crosstabs is that age depolarization may occur around the margins but not to the extreme polls suggest where Seniors and Gen Z vote practically the same.
 
I think WWC voters, especially rural ones, really don't get enough discussion ironically. In 2020, Trump largely continued with modest gains in WWC communities, especially rural ones. If he can squeeze another 5 points out of places like rural WWC PA and WI can have huge implications on his pathway to victory in those states. Even though these voters are what defined Trump's 2016 win, I don't think it's a given they shift right, especially as Trump has slowly shifted his rhetoric and strategies over the past 8 years. In 2024 for instance, perhaps if the GOP tries too hard at messaging to non-white voters it could start to turn off some of these WWC voters and they just won't show up. Doubt that's the case but it's possible around the margins.

Biden's path might be by keeping big college white margins, losing places like Fayette County, PA by 27 instead of 32. Something like this could potentially allow him to withstand a disaster with Hispanics in NV, AZ and blacks in GA by narrowly winning MI/PA/WI/NE-2 and getting exactly 270. That said, I am not at all convinced Biden is doing as poorly as advertised with non-whites in the sunbelt and he probably isn't winning 65+.

[emailking]

I don't ignore it, or Biden's counterintuitive crosstabs. I think there's a chance the polls are off and the SC primary results strengthened that notion somewhat. But for the most part I believe the polls. I guess I'm not really an unskewer if you force me to get serious about it, lol.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's an open forum where people have a right to alternative opinions on polling especially when it overestimated Republicans in 2022 (as did prognosticators). It's not spam to state that the election isn't over in February or that polling crosstabs don't add up.

Is some variation of the following three posts:

"Trump's >10% with black voters, toss it"
"Biden's not hitting 55% with U30 voters, scrap it"
"Biden's getting a lower % of dems than Trump is of republicans, ignore it"

At some point, a user no longer passes the Turing Test.

---

Anyhow, I think using the ignore list is cowardly, but it wouldn't even work here. Since the pile-on derails every thread with cascading quote posts.

The bolded is never even an argument that I've made because it's no secret that the Republican base is more united behind Trump than the Democratic base is behind Biden in a lot of polling. What is questionable is the idea that undecided Democrats are necessarily leaning Trump.

Calling me dumb and accusing me of lying about being Black is far more unintelligent behavior than questioning a poll, but whatever. You don't use the ignore list because you like to argue.

I don't think anyone has said undecided Democrats "lean Trump".
The issue is that perhaps the dumbest takes on the forum are when people assign all the undecideds to Biden and say something like "Trump is only at 48%, he can't win!", while ignoring that its silly to assume he'll get no undecideds.

[BlueSwan]

I'm against "unskewing" period. It doesn't matter whether it is done by republicans or democrats.

While it is fine to be doubtful of certain pollsters, trying to discredit polls due to some subsample is misguided. Likewise, we have poll aggregators for a reason - they even out statistical abnormalities and even downright fraudulent polls (to the extent that these even exist). If the polling aggregates for both the NPV and all the key swing states tells you that Trump is ahead, then we should very much take that seriously and not engage in wishful thinking. Yes, maybe miniorities and the youth will turn out for Biden after all, but we have no solid indications right now that this will indeed be the case.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What is really laughable is when the bloomers point to 2022 when the gains with minorities reflected in polling did not materialize but they ignore 2020 when they did. In fact, states with large Latino populations like NV, TX actually overestimated democrats in 2020, so we can’t assume that will necessarily happen again. Also, the turnout in the year where the minority vote shifted the most right  was sky high, and latinos especially have dreadful turnout in non presidential years, so maybe these people just Didn’t vote in 2022.

Anyways, I don’t think the idea of Biden over performing the polls is unreasonable and there is evidence for it in 2022(you can spin it however you want, most polling overestimated republicans). But just dismissing the cross tabs is lazy

[Ferguson97]

You're absolutely correct.
Weird crosstabs end up evening out

I mean, this isn't always true. If Biden's share of the 65+ vote is underestimated by 5% and Trump's share of the 18-29 vote is underestimated by 5%, for example, that doesn't even out - it's a net positive for Biden, because the 65+ group is a larger share of the electorate than the 18-29 group.

[ProgressiveModerate]

You're absolutely correct.
Weird crosstabs end up evening out

I mean, this isn't always true. If Biden's share of the 65+ vote is underestimated by 5% and Trump's share of the 18-29 vote is underestimated by 5%, for example, that doesn't even out - it's a net positive for Biden, because the 65+ group is a larger share of the electorate than the 18-29 group.

In 2016 many polls actually underestimate Clinton with Hispanics iirc, but the huge underestimation of Trump with WWC voters ultimately meant he beat the polls.