In the 2018 elections, if you look at the House vote by state, it seemed as if the GOP advantage in the EC had disappeared, states like PA saw much bigger swings from 2016-2018 than the nation as a whole, so did WI.
None of this mattered in 2020, states like WI & PA ended up even more Republican relative to the nation in 2020 then they were in 2016. I wouldn't extrapolate midterms results to presidential years.
I remember people saying after 2018 how Trump was going to lose PA by a large margin as Republican statewide candidates lost by double digits up and down the ballot and it was just a total blowout. In 2020 Biden barely eked out a 1.2% victory against Trump in the state.
Nope:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections#Closest_racesCA-10 was the tipping point seat and Dems won that by 4.49 points which means the Dems could have won the PV by more than 4 and still lost the house in 2018.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections#Closest_racesIn 2022 the tipping point state was IA-3 which the GOP won by 0.69 points meaning the GOP could have won the PV by more than 2 and still lost the house in 2022
