How will Biden do in the popular vote?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  How will Biden do in the popular vote?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: How will Biden do in the popular vote?
#1
He wins it by more than 2020		  
#2
He wins it by a margin between Clinton 2016 and Biden 2020		  
#3
He wins it by less than Clinton		  
#4
He loses it		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 35

Author Topic: How will Biden do in the popular vote?  (Read 545 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: February 04, 2024, 12:56:58 PM »
How will Biden do in the popular vote?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2024, 01:08:28 PM »
Hot take: slightly better than 2020.
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Mr. Third-Wayist
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2024, 01:13:22 PM »
+3-4 when all is said and done
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seskoog
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2024, 01:27:26 PM »
He wins it by a margin of about 3.5%, largely due to doing 3-4 points worse than 2020 in three of the four largest states (CA, FL, NY)
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Woody
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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2024, 01:31:02 PM »
The world has gone to hell since 2020 and you think he will do better?
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2024, 01:59:12 PM »
I've got it on Biden+2.5 for now, which points to a Trump victory through the electoral college.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2024, 02:13:02 PM »
He will win it Rs haven't won Prez PVI only Midterm PVI 2010/14 , since 2004, it's a 65/60 M D Eday because 65 M voters are impoverished we don't get every impoverished person vote but there alot more people in poverty than total Maga people that's what 2012 showed 64/60 M
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2024, 02:22:40 PM »
Quote from: Woody on February 04, 2024, 01:31:02 PM
The world has gone to hell since 2020 and you think he will do better?

Most metrics around things like optimism and consumer sentiment have started increasing
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2024, 02:47:36 PM »
I'm thinking about Trump +1...but I'm not so sure if that actually leads to a Trump victory.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2024, 03:12:08 PM »
Quote from: Woody on February 04, 2024, 01:31:02 PM
The world has gone to hell since 2020 and you think he will do better?

How has it gone to hell?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2024, 05:23:43 PM »
Less than 2020 but more than 2016.  While possible he loses it, I only see that happening if a strong third party candidate.  I would be shocked if Trump got over 50% but I also think Biden probably won't this time around so depends on third party candidate.  If say 8-10% vote for third party candidates, then yes Trump probably wins popular vote.  Trump got 47% in 2020 and I suspect he will get close to that again.
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BG-NY (permanently retired)
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« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2024, 05:27:16 PM »
If the election was held today, loses it by 2-3.
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Redban
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« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2024, 05:43:21 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on February 04, 2024, 02:22:40 PM
Quote from: Woody on February 04, 2024, 01:31:02 PM
The world has gone to hell since 2020 and you think he will do better?

Most metrics around things like optimism and consumer sentiment have started increasing

And none of that has rubbed off on Biden’s approvals of favorables. People have given up on him, and they won’t be going back ever again
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Woody
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« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2024, 06:33:19 PM »
Quote from: GAinDC on February 04, 2024, 03:12:08 PM
Quote from: Woody on February 04, 2024, 01:31:02 PM
The world has gone to hell since 2020 and you think he will do better?

How has it gone to hell?
Ukraine
Israel-Palestine
Afghanistan
Houthis
North Korea
Iran
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2024, 06:56:49 PM »
He exceeds Clinton 2016, 50/50 chance he exceeds Obama 2012, does not do better than 2020.

So somewhere between three to four points.
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DS0816
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« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2024, 07:24:10 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 04, 2024, 12:56:58 PM
How will Biden do in the popular vote?

“He loses it.”

Or…

I could also write…

The 2024 Democrats will lose the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President.

This will mark the first time since 2004.

The last two Republican pickups for U.S. President were in 2000 and 2016. The pickup winners, George W. Bush and Donald Trump, did not sufficiently shift nationally and in state to state to win likewise Republican pickups for U.S. Popular Vote.

Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden is performing so badly—his job approval, in trailing Trump in the polls, in key demographics (which include people who had/have been part of the Democratic Party’s coalition)—that it is unlikely the 2024 Democrats will hold the U.S. Popular Vote even by as little as +0.01 percentage points.
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