Forget No Labels. Biden’s Third-Party Peril is on the Left.

[Beet]

Young Democrats find U.S. support for Netanyahu’s war effort is untenable, potentially costing the president millions of liberal votes.

how many Biden speeches must be shouted down until Democrats realize that a hot war in Gaza this fall may mean 30,000 fewer votes apiece in Madison, Dearborn and Ann Arbor and therefore the presidency?

People don’t understand how few votes [the third-party candidates] would need to take away,” said Lis Smith, the hard-charging Democratic operative who has recently signed on with the DNC, in part to grab voters by the lapels about the threat at hand. “It’s the whole election.”

One House Democrat told me of a dinner last month with about eight other colleagues, a cross-section of the caucus ideologically and generationally. “It was unanimous that this Israel-Gaza war needed to end now and that Biden needed to stand up to Bibi,” this lawmaker told me, before offering his own view.

“This is a disaster politically,” said this House Democrat, who rarely criticizes Israel. “The base is really pissed — and it’s not just the leftists. I have never seen such a depth of anguish as I’ve seen over this Gaza issue. Bibi is toxic among many Democratic voters and Biden must distance himself from him — yesterday.”

Jumping off the page: A recent YouGov poll found 50 percent of self-described Biden voters called Israel’s attacks on Gaza “a genocide.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/04/biden-third-party-peril-00139380

[wbrocks67]

Given the third party leftist candidates are clowns like Cornel Weist and Jill Stein, yeah I don't think so.

The thing with the Israel/Gaza issue is that imo - I could be wrong - but based on living in real life, this issue is much more of a 'Twitter' issue than an issue in the real world. Not that people don't care about it IRL, but people IRL, at least from my own experiences, are much more reasoned about it, and not the stuff you see on far left twitter. Could just be me though!

IMO the polls are finding the most extreme young people on the issue and making it seem like that is representative.

[Beet]

Given the third party leftist candidates are clowns like Cornel Weist and Jill Stein, yeah I don't think so.

The thing with the Israel/Gaza issue is that imo - I could be wrong - but based on living in real life, this issue is much more of a 'Twitter' issue than an issue in the real world. Not that people don't care about it IRL, but people IRL, at least from my own experiences, are much more reasoned about it, and not the stuff you see on far left twitter. Could just be me though!

IMO the polls are finding the most extreme young people on the issue and making it seem like that is representative.

Many people simply won't vote. Won't phone bank, knock doors, donate, put up yard signs, or defend Biden among friends/family. Given the narrow margins by which swing states ate decided, it's going to cost Biden reelection. We have different IRL experiences. I'm definitely seeing that it has cost him support offline as well as on.

[President Johnson]

This is a beet threaf

[Mr. Smith]

Nah, No Labels shouldn't be let off the hook here.

[wbrocks67]

Given the third party leftist candidates are clowns like Cornel Weist and Jill Stein, yeah I don't think so.

The thing with the Israel/Gaza issue is that imo - I could be wrong - but based on living in real life, this issue is much more of a 'Twitter' issue than an issue in the real world. Not that people don't care about it IRL, but people IRL, at least from my own experiences, are much more reasoned about it, and not the stuff you see on far left twitter. Could just be me though!

IMO the polls are finding the most extreme young people on the issue and making it seem like that is representative.

Many people simply won't vote. Won't phone bank, knock doors, donate, put up yard signs, or defend Biden among friends/family. Given the narrow margins by which swing states ate decided, it's going to cost Biden reelection. We have different IRL experiences. I'm definitely seeing that it has cost him support offline as well as on.

Most normie young people are not doing any of that normally though (phone banking, door knocking, etc.). I only know a few people IRL who actually are that involved.

[Devils30]

You also don't see quite as many Trump bumper stickers either. People are tired of this matchup.

[jojoju1998]

Given the third party leftist candidates are clowns like Cornel Weist and Jill Stein, yeah I don't think so.

The thing with the Israel/Gaza issue is that imo - I could be wrong - but based on living in real life, this issue is much more of a 'Twitter' issue than an issue in the real world. Not that people don't care about it IRL, but people IRL, at least from my own experiences, are much more reasoned about it, and not the stuff you see on far left twitter. Could just be me though!

IMO the polls are finding the most extreme young people on the issue and making it seem like that is representative.

Many people simply won't vote. Won't phone bank, knock doors, donate, put up yard signs, or defend Biden among friends/family. Given the narrow margins by which swing states ate decided, it's going to cost Biden reelection. We have different IRL experiences. I'm definitely seeing that it has cost him support offline as well as on.

Many Young People are apathetic about politics anyway. With or without the Israel/Gaza debacle.

[wbrocks67]

Let's not forget at this point that it's unlikely Cornel West is even on most of the ballots at this point.

[Crumpets]

Given the third party leftist candidates are clowns like Cornel Weist and Jill Stein, yeah I don't think so.

The thing with the Israel/Gaza issue is that imo - I could be wrong - but based on living in real life, this issue is much more of a 'Twitter' issue than an issue in the real world. Not that people don't care about it IRL, but people IRL, at least from my own experiences, are much more reasoned about it, and not the stuff you see on far left twitter. Could just be me though!

IMO the polls are finding the most extreme young people on the issue and making it seem like that is representative.

Not to mention, there's so much nuance in how people make their politics and weigh their issues. I have a friend who is very much a centrist, usually votes Libertarian or abstains in presidential elections, and calls what Israel is doing a genocide, but also acknowledges (somewhat begrudgingly) that Biden is probably handling this about as well as anyone could. She also listens to Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson while simultaneously supporting BLM.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Let's not forget at this point that it's unlikely Cornel West is even on most of the ballots at this point.

How many times will he drop out and come back in under a new party by November?

[Comrade Funk]

Let's not forget at this point that it's unlikely Cornel West is even on most of the ballots at this point.

Even if we buy this theory, why are you ignoring the very real possibility of people just not showing up to vote (or leaving the ballot blank)? Even Dem leadership realizes it now.

[Devils30]

Let's be honest with the left, there is an element that is uninterested in American democracy and deep down wants a junta like what Fidel Castro established in Cuba. This group may say it is peaceful and wants a ceasefire but antisemitism runs deep and there is an insatiable thirst for violence among many of this group that is as deep as right wing militia groups like the proud boys.

[wbrocks67]

Let's not forget at this point that it's unlikely Cornel West is even on most of the ballots at this point.

Even if we buy this theory, why are you ignoring the very real possibility of people just not showing up to vote (or leaving the ballot blank)? Even Dem leadership realizes it now.

I mean that was a possibility in 2016, 2020, every election. You can only do so much. If people really don't care that much, you're not going to be able to change their mind.

[The Mikado]

Cornel West isn't going to be on the ballot essentially anywhere, so Stein is the actual factor in exclusively left-of-Biden campaigns. The Green Party will be on the ballot in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, and maybe Pennsylvania, but has essentially no shot at ballot access in North Carolina, Georgia, or Nevada. (Greens have never in their existence going back to 1996 been on the ballot in Nevada, fun fact) Pennsylvania is a reach but very much doable if the Green Party takes ballot access seriously.

If Stein's goal is to hurt Biden as much as possible she might as well just move to Michigan and not leave until November, as that's basically ground zero for protest vote opportunity, though even then I have a feeling that a number of Arab-Americans interested in protest voting aren't actually particularly left wing and might find RFK Jr a more attractive protest candidate than Stein.

Re: No Labels, it's very murky but there's a lot of signs that there's a lot of internal dissention as to what the ticket would actually be and a lot up in the air on that front. They say they'll announce a ticket in April but we'll see what they come up with: while their public statements have indicated they want a unity ticket with a Republican presidential pick and a Democratic VP pick, the most prominent name they've approached, Joe Manchin, is a total prima donna and I have a lot of doubt he'd be willing to be a Vice Presidential candidate to Jon Huntsman or something. I am going to hold off on assessing No Labels' potential until they actually nail down a ticket but I do see some potential for No Labels to just be unable to put together a real ticket. We'll have to see if they can make something work or if they're just vaporware.

[Beet]

Cornel West isn't going to be on the ballot essentially anywhere, so Stein is the actual factor in exclusively left-of-Biden campaigns. The Green Party will be on the ballot in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, and maybe Pennsylvania, but has essentially no shot at ballot access in North Carolina, Georgia, or Nevada. (Greens have never in their existence going back to 1996 been on the ballot in Nevada, fun fact) Pennsylvania is a reach but very much doable if the Green Party takes ballot access seriously.

If Stein's goal is to hurt Biden as much as possible she might as well just move to Michigan and not leave until November, as that's basically ground zero for protest vote opportunity, though even then I have a feeling that a number of Arab-Americans interested in protest voting aren't actually particularly left wing and might find RFK Jr a more attractive protest candidate than Stein.

Re: No Labels, it's very murky but there's a lot of signs that there's a lot of internal dissention as to what the ticket would actually be and a lot up in the air on that front. They say they'll announce a ticket in April but we'll see what they come up with: while their public statements have indicated they want a unity ticket with a Republican presidential pick and a Democratic VP pick, the most prominent name they've approached, Joe Manchin, is a total prima donna and I have a lot of doubt he'd be willing to be a Vice Presidential candidate to Jon Huntsman or something. I am going to hold off on assessing No Labels' potential until they actually nail down a ticket but I do see some potential for No Labels to just be unable to put together a real ticket. We'll have to see if they can make something work or if they're just vaporware.

West and Stein aren't the only threats to Biden that manifest via Israel/Palestine, though. An equally grave threat, at least, is that his erwstwhile voters simply don't turn out to vote.

[The Mikado]

West and Stein aren't the only threats to Biden that manifest via Israel/Palestine, though. An equally grave threat, at least, is that his erwstwhile voters simply don't turn out to vote.

That's not a third party threat.

[Beet]

West and Stein aren't the only threats to Biden that manifest via Israel/Palestine, though. An equally grave threat, at least, is that his erwstwhile voters simply don't turn out to vote.

That's not a third party threat.

Ok but it's still going to cost him the election.

[Tekken_Guy]

West and Stein aren't the only threats to Biden that manifest via Israel/Palestine, though. An equally grave threat, at least, is that his erwstwhile voters simply don't turn out to vote.

That's not a third party threat.

Ok but it's still going to cost him the election.

He can make up those votes elsewhere.

[MichaelM24]

I plan on voting for one of the leftist options, depending on who's a write-in option here (my preference is Claudia de la Cruz, but I could vote for Stein, Bill Stodden, or maybe West, if I had to).

I agree that there's a possibility of increased third party/independent votes this November, which I can only hope actually happens. I suspect, though, as we get closer to the general, some of these people suggesting a third party vote will either go back to their party of origin or perhaps just stay home (which would be a damn shame, in my view).

Personally speaking, I think Claudia de la Cruz is the strongest of these leftist options, but the PSL have such limited ballot access that I doubt she'll be a factor anywhere.

[Atlasia GM Liminal]

I plan on voting for one of the leftist options, depending on who's a write-in option here (my preference is Claudia de la Cruz, but I could vote for Stein, Bill Stodden, or maybe West, if I had to).

I agree that there's a possibility of increased third party/independent votes this November, which I can only hope actually happens. I suspect, though, as we get closer to the general, some of these people suggesting a third party vote will either go back to their party of origin or perhaps just stay home (which would be a damn shame, in my view).

Personally speaking, I think Claudia de la Cruz is the strongest of these leftist options, but the PSL have such limited ballot access that I doubt she'll be a factor anywhere.

doesn't her party say that Westerners lie about North Korea being a bad place?

[The Mikado]

I agree that there's a possibility of increased third party/independent votes this November, which I can only hope actually happens.

Increased vs 2020, absolutely. I think it'll still be down vs 2016, though. A total third party vote around 4 or 5% would fit the bill (vs 2% in 2020 and 6% in 2016)

[MichaelM24]

I agree that there's a possibility of increased third party/independent votes this November, which I can only hope actually happens.

Increased vs 2020, absolutely. I think it'll still be down vs 2016, though. A total third party vote around 4 or 5% would fit the bill (vs 2% in 2020 and 6% in 2016)

I agree, that is most likely. Naturally, I can keep my fingers crossed, but a 4.5% independent/third party total seems a reasonable expectation, especially with ballot access issues in mind.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Cornel West isn't going to be on the ballot essentially anywhere, so Stein is the actual factor in exclusively left-of-Biden campaigns. The Green Party will be on the ballot in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, and maybe Pennsylvania, but has essentially no shot at ballot access in North Carolina, Georgia, or Nevada. (Greens have never in their existence going back to 1996 been on the ballot in Nevada, fun fact) Pennsylvania is a reach but very much doable if the Green Party takes ballot access seriously.

If Stein's goal is to hurt Biden as much as possible she might as well just move to Michigan and not leave until November, as that's basically ground zero for protest vote opportunity, though even then I have a feeling that a number of Arab-Americans interested in protest voting aren't actually particularly left wing and might find RFK Jr a more attractive protest candidate than Stein.

Re: No Labels, it's very murky but there's a lot of signs that there's a lot of internal dissention as to what the ticket would actually be and a lot up in the air on that front. They say they'll announce a ticket in April but we'll see what they come up with: while their public statements have indicated they want a unity ticket with a Republican presidential pick and a Democratic VP pick, the most prominent name they've approached, Joe Manchin, is a total prima donna and I have a lot of doubt he'd be willing to be a Vice Presidential candidate to Jon Huntsman or something. I am going to hold off on assessing No Labels' potential until they actually nail down a ticket but I do see some potential for No Labels to just be unable to put together a real ticket. We'll have to see if they can make something work or if they're just vaporware.

RFK Jr is even more pro-Israel than Biden. If they're single issue voters, they'll vote Stein and not care what her other positions are, since it's not like she's getting elected anyway.

As for No Labels, they (or a similar group) try to pull this stunt every four years and it never goes anywhere. Even if they succeed in fielding a ticket and gaining ballot access in most states, I'm not even sure they'd take more votes from Biden than from Trump.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

As for No Labels, they (or a similar group) try to pull this stunt every four years and it never goes anywhere. Even if they succeed in fielding a ticket and gaining ballot access in most states, I'm not even sure they'd take more votes from Biden than from Trump.

Anyone else remember Americans Elect? That could be the destiny of No Labels.

I guess I just don’t see the appeal of say Joe Manchin running. Who does he appeal to on a national level? He’s no spring chicken, so he can’t even appeal on basis of age.