Polls of black voters are wrong

[Banana Republican]

If it were not obvious already, it should be now that we have the South Carolina primary results.

Pollsters just can't get a good sample any more, and have an impossible time contacting a representative sample in particular of younger voters and non-white voters. The response rates to traditional polls have simply become too low, and alternative methods don't yield an unbiased sample.

Biden will get pretty much the same support he got in 2020 among African American voters. Sure, it is possible there could be a swing of a point or 2 among black voters. But realistically it isn't going to be anything more than that, and if you are seriously expecting more than that you are living in an alternative reality of your own imagination.

Relatedly, I would suggest that the same thing is almost certainly true with Hispanics as well (albeit perhaps to a somewhat lesser degree).

If you want to see how black voters (as well as other minorities) are going to vote in 2024, the best source of information is not polls with methodologically dubious subsamples. The best source of information (other than of course 2020 election results) are 2022 election results. Realistically, any swings against Biden among sub-groups in 2024 are not going to be meaningfully larger than the swings against Democrats in general were in 2022 as compared to 2020 at most.

The only thing that could change this is possibly some sort of very major event (something at least as significant as 9/11 or the 2008 financial crisis, for example) which changes the entire landscape of the campaign and national politics in an unpredictable manner that can't be foreseen prior to the event.

[mileslunn]

Also history too as Black vote has been quite consistent so while possible 2024 becomes exception, history suggests Democrats should get around 90%.

[DrScholl]

In before someone says you can't glean that from one primary. The electorate was more Black than 2020 and Biden managed to break 100,000 votes. There were no visible signs of a protest vote and even if you chalk that up to poor candidates the amount of non-Biden votes was incredibly low for someone who supposedly has huge issues with Black voters. More voters could have stayed home yet more than 100,000 turned out for a primary that is not even competitive. What is most notable is that polling way underestimated Biden to the tune of 32%.

[7,052,770]

Someone should set up a website to "unskew" every poll to correct the black turnout and D/R split, and calculate the resulting overall margin. We should then treat those unskewed results as the real ones.

[Crumpets]

Counterpoint (although I generally agree): Black voters who would go from Biden '20 to either not voting or voting for Trump probably wouldn't show up in results for a Democratic primary unless there's some real opposition candidates to Biden.

[The Mamdani Virus]

Counterpoint (although I generally agree): Black voters who would go from Biden '20 to either not voting or voting for Trump probably wouldn't show up in results for a Democratic primary unless there's some real opposition candidates to Biden.

Well as others have said you saw a random perennial candidate win 40% in the WV primary in 2012, which was ominous sign of the total D collapse in 2012 there. Appalachia and much of the rural Midwest backed Sanders in 2016 which was an ominous sign for Clinton. Donald Trump did quite poorly in affluent counties in 2016, even late in the primary. You can read some tea leaves into primary results and if we were to see 25% of black people vote Republican, we would see some evidence here. This isn't to say they couldn't win 10%, 12%, or even 15% of the vote, just a large scale exit seems unlikely.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Someone should set up a website to "unskew" every poll to correct the black turnout and D/R split, and calculate the resulting overall margin. We should then treat those unskewed results as the real ones.

Didn't Karl Rove and the Romney fanbase try that 12 years ago?

[Banana Republican]

Counterpoint (although I generally agree): Black voters who would go from Biden '20 to either not voting or voting for Trump probably wouldn't show up in results for a Democratic primary unless there's some real opposition candidates to Biden.

Voter discontent is something that exists on a continuum, not just in one or two discrete categories.

So while I think you are correct that any black voters who would go so far as to swing to Trump in the General are not going to show up in this primary, if there were any significant number of such people, then there would also be a non-negligible number of voters who are not THAT dissatisfied with Biden, but who are dissatisfied to a lesser degree - dissatisfied enough to cast a protest vote in the primary, even though they will vote for Biden in the general.

But there is just absolutely no sign of that at all.

[Banana Republican]

Someone should set up a website to "unskew" every poll to correct the black turnout and D/R split, and calculate the resulting overall margin. We should then treat those unskewed results as the real ones.

The only thing that would stop me from going that far as to go along with that is that while I do think Biden is being underestimated with minority voters, he may be simultaneously being overestimated with white voters and older voters.

We should not be surprised if that is the case, because polls are weighted. And if pollsters are consistently getting samples of minority and young voters which are too Republican, an (inadvertent but consistent) result of any attempts to weight by things like previous reported vote or party identification could be that their samples of other groups would be skewed by the weighting to be more Democratic (because they would overweight old and white respondent dems in comparison to old and white respondent Republicans to balance out the Republican skew of the young/non-white sample). Although I would caveat that this is not necessarily the case, and it is not impossible that white voter and old voter sub-samples are more accurate (or even overestimating Trump as well, but that is less likely).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't think the margins are what matters, but rather the turnout level when it comes to minority group. If black voters have very low turnout, it hurts on net Biden more, even if he's getting 95% of the vote with them. Likewise, even if Trump gets like 15% of black voters but there is off the charts turnout with them, it ends up helping Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think the margins are what matters, but rather the turnout level when it comes to minority group. If black voters have very low turnout, it hurts on net Biden more, even if he's getting 95% of the vote with them. Likewise, even if Trump gets like 15% of black voters but there is off the charts turnout with them, it ends up helping Biden.

Yeah basically my thoughts as well. Black voters are historically a very inelastic and lopsided voting block and that isn’t going to change dramatically in 2024. Turnout is the more important variable when it comes to black voters, and both 2020 and 2022 suggest warning signs of possible low black turnout in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't think the margins are what matters, but rather the turnout level when it comes to minority group. If black voters have very low turnout, it hurts on net Biden more, even if he's getting 95% of the vote with them. Likewise, even if Trump gets like 15% of black voters but there is off the charts turnout with them, it ends up helping Biden.

Yeah basically my thoughts as well. Black voters are historically a very inelastic and lopsided voting block and that isn’t going to change dramatically in 2024. Turnout is the more important variable when it comes to black voters, and both 2020 and 2022 suggest warning signs of possible low black turnout in 2024.

What warning signs?

[It's Time.]

Counterpoint (although I generally agree): Black voters who would go from Biden '20 to either not voting or voting for Trump probably wouldn't show up in results for a Democratic primary unless there's some real opposition candidates to Biden.

Well as others have said you saw a random perennial candidate win 40% in the WV primary in 2012, which was ominous sign of the total D collapse in 2012 there. Appalachia and much of the rural Midwest backed Sanders in 2016 which was an ominous sign for Clinton. Donald Trump did quite poorly in affluent counties in 2016, even late in the primary. You can read some tea leaves into primary results and if we were to see 25% of black people vote Republican, we would see some evidence here. This isn't to say they couldn't win 10%, 12%, or even 15% of the vote, just a large scale exit seems unlikely.

Tbf, Biden won Dade county by landslide margins in 2020 primary, but did worse than anyone could have possibly imagined in the general. So there are exceptions.

[7,052,770]

Someone should set up a website to "unskew" every poll to correct the black turnout and D/R split, and calculate the resulting overall margin. We should then treat those unskewed results as the real ones.

Didn't Karl Rove and the Romney fanbase try that 12 years ago?

Yes, that was the reference I was making. Admittedly half of this forum wasn't born yet then, so it might not have landed like I hoped.

[TML]

I agree with the overall point that most pro-R "swings" among black voters are more because of depressed turnout among this group instead of voters flipping from D to R. Remember that Obama was able to inspire turnout levels among blacks that subsequent Democratic nominees haven't been able to replicate, which would explain their lower vote shares among blacks compared to Obama. Biden was probably also hurt by his association with the crime bill, which further depressed black turnout a bit.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I agree with the overall point that most pro-R "swings" among black voters are more because of depressed turnout among this group instead of voters flipping from D to R. Remember that Obama was able to inspire turnout levels among blacks that subsequent Democratic nominees haven't been able to replicate, which would explain their lower vote shares among blacks compared to Obama. Biden was probably also hurt by his association with the crime bill, which further depressed black turnout a bit.

People have misconstrued the crime bill so much. Also, Joe Biden didn't solely craft the bill.

Crime in many parts of the U.S. (especially in most major cities) was sky-high during the '70s and into the early '90s. The '94 Crime Bill was a reaction to that. Many Americans wanted the federal government to do something to stop the madness. Also, at the time, the bill was supported by more Black people than White people, according to Gallup polling.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Turnout will be key in the general election against Trump.

Biden is doing phenomenal among AA voters who are turning out, but how many AA are turning out - and NOT turning out - for the general?

Yesterday, turnout was just 4% of registered voters, a catastrophe, meaning most black voters  stayed home. Biden received 120.000 votes, just a tenth (1/10) of his 2020 vote against Trump in South Carolina.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't think the margins are what matters, but rather the turnout level when it comes to minority group. If black voters have very low turnout, it hurts on net Biden more, even if he's getting 95% of the vote with them. Likewise, even if Trump gets like 15% of black voters but there is off the charts turnout with them, it ends up helping Biden.

Yeah basically my thoughts as well. Black voters are historically a very inelastic and lopsided voting block and that isn’t going to change dramatically in 2024. Turnout is the more important variable when it comes to black voters, and both 2020 and 2022 suggest warning signs of possible low black turnout in 2024.

What warning signs?

Louisiana Governor?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think the margins are what matters, but rather the turnout level when it comes to minority group. If black voters have very low turnout, it hurts on net Biden more, even if he's getting 95% of the vote with them. Likewise, even if Trump gets like 15% of black voters but there is off the charts turnout with them, it ends up helping Biden.

Yeah basically my thoughts as well. Black voters are historically a very inelastic and lopsided voting block and that isn’t going to change dramatically in 2024. Turnout is the more important variable when it comes to black voters, and both 2020 and 2022 suggest warning signs of possible low black turnout in 2024.

What warning signs?

Louisiana Governor?

Also turnout sucked across the board in 2022 for black turnout, even in states where Dems otherwise performed well like PA and MI

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We know that Emerson, You Gov have Trump +1 and NC, Harris X and CNN has it Trump +5. Why would we reelect Trump with his silly tax cuts, Whites are middle class, there are very few of us since a 1)3 rd of us are impoverished middle class whereas 10 percent of whites are impoverished

[BlueSwan]

Turnout will be key in the general election against Trump.

Biden is doing phenomenal among AA voters who are turning out, but how many AA are turning out - and NOT turning out - for the general?

Yesterday, turnout was just 4% of registered voters, a catastrophe, meaning most black voters  stayed home. Biden received 120.000 votes, just a tenth (1/10) of his 2020 vote against Trump in South Carolina.

This. My concerns about the 2024 election have not diminished as the result of a primary that basically nobody cared about or paid any attention to.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't think the margins are what matters, but rather the turnout level when it comes to minority group. If black voters have very low turnout, it hurts on net Biden more, even if he's getting 95% of the vote with them. Likewise, even if Trump gets like 15% of black voters but there is off the charts turnout with them, it ends up helping Biden.

Yeah basically my thoughts as well. Black voters are historically a very inelastic and lopsided voting block and that isn’t going to change dramatically in 2024. Turnout is the more important variable when it comes to black voters, and both 2020 and 2022 suggest warning signs of possible low black turnout in 2024.

Majority black counties had better turnout yesterday than the majority white ones.

[oldtimer]

I don't think the margins are what matters, but rather the turnout level when it comes to minority group. If black voters have very low turnout, it hurts on net Biden more, even if he's getting 95% of the vote with them. Likewise, even if Trump gets like 15% of black voters but there is off the charts turnout with them, it ends up helping Biden.

Yeah basically my thoughts as well. Black voters are historically a very inelastic and lopsided voting block and that isn’t going to change dramatically in 2024. Turnout is the more important variable when it comes to black voters, and both 2020 and 2022 suggest warning signs of possible low black turnout in 2024.

Majority black counties had better turnout yesterday than the majority white ones.

So do elections in Harlem, same turnout too.

https://www.gothamgazette.com/city/6745-small-number-of-votes-likely-to-carry-harlem-special-election

But I'm not touching the black polling subsamples with a barge poll, until confirmed by an exit poll or local election results.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout will be key in the general election against Trump.

Biden is doing phenomenal among AA voters who are turning out, but how many AA are turning out - and NOT turning out - for the general?

Yesterday, turnout was just 4% of registered voters, a catastrophe, meaning most black voters  stayed home. Biden received 120.000 votes, just a tenth (1/10) of his 2020 vote against Trump in South Carolina.

How is that a catastrophe? Turnout was literally only 16% in 2020 when the Democratic primary was hotly contested and there was no race on the R side at all.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump got more votes in the 2020 primaries than 2016. Low turnout is a warning sign: SC primary turnout barely exceeded NH where Biden was not on the ballot.