What to make of NV?

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

It should be the perfect state for the Trump-era GOP, but I have this sinking feeling it ends up D+1-D+3 regardless of the EC outcome.

[DK_Mo82]

Got to be tilt Trump at this point, Trump appear ahead 2 to 4 nationally, 50:50 with hispanics, tho Nv Dems always seem to pick rabbit out of hat, I was totally shocked when Reid won in 2010, they always seem to have just enough votes like Reid's 1998 victory or Masto last time

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It was wrong last time and Rosen is leading as I said do t take polls especially MC polls seriously until 1 month before Eday not 290 days before as I keep saying

A lot these polls aren't polling minorities correctly

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

It was wrong last time and Rosen is leading as I said do t take polls especially MC polls seriously until 1 month before Eday not 290 days before as I keep saying

A lot these polls aren't polling minorities correctly

The middle class is better off from tax cuts.

[Octowakandi]

Got to be tilt Trump at this point, Trump appear ahead 2 to 4 nationally, 50:50 with hispanics, tho Nv Dems always seem to pick rabbit out of hat, I was totally shocked when Reid won in 2010, they always seem to have just enough votes like Reid's 1998 victory or Masto last time

It'll be close but Jon Ralston, who has basically always been right about Nevada politics, says that at his point in the game, is probably a lean Trump state. Of course, a lot can change between now and Nov.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

You can tell the polls are manipulating the blk vote because QU has Biden up 6 and Biden @45 in Rassy and others like Harris X has him @38

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Just note MC are business related polls not regular polls so they are gonna have an R bias

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

I’m honestly not too sold on it being a slam dunk for the GOP myself. It always gets hyped up every election but then votes tilt D literally every time with the exception of governors races sometimes.

[Cyrusman]

Got to be tilt Trump at this point, Trump appear ahead 2 to 4 nationally, 50:50 with hispanics, tho Nv Dems always seem to pick rabbit out of hat, I was totally shocked when Reid won in 2010, they always seem to have just enough votes like Reid's 1998 victory or Masto last time

It'll be close but Jon Ralston, who has basically always been right about Nevada politics, says that at his point in the game, is probably a lean Trump state. Of course, a lot can change between now and Nov.

When did he say this?

[TodayJunior]

The ultimate fools gold for republicans. This will end up being Biden by 2-4

[Progressive Pessimist]

Still titanium tilt D, honestly.

Biden wins by two.

[Annatar]

The trend in NV post 2008 has been pretty clear, maybe the trend stops in 2024 but we will have to see, this is how NV has voted relative to the nation since 2008:

2008: D+5.3
2012: D+2.8
2016: D+0.3
2020: R+2.1

There has been a pretty consistent 2.5% shift towards the Republicans relative to the nation in every election since 2008, would suggest something like a R+4.5 lean in 2024. If Biden expands his NPV margin from 2020, he can hold NV, but absent that, Trump will win it.

[Joe Biden 2028]

I agree that Nevada is the state most likely to flip. I also think it’s possibly for Trump to win Nevada while losing the election

But I’m not convinced that Nevada will automatically flip.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Got to be tilt Trump at this point, Trump appear ahead 2 to 4 nationally, 50:50 with hispanics, tho Nv Dems always seem to pick rabbit out of hat, I was totally shocked when Reid won in 2010, they always seem to have just enough votes like Reid's 1998 victory or Masto last time

It'll be close but Jon Ralston, who has basically always been right about Nevada politics, says that at his point in the game, is probably a lean Trump state. Of course, a lot can change between now and Nov.

When did he say this?

There's a Nov 2023 radio excerpt of him saying both Independent voters and Latino voters in the state were leaning towards Trump according to polls from 3 months ago
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2023/11/07/nevada-2024-poll

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/11/nevada-biden-trump-2024-polling/675997/

So many events could intervene between now and next November, foreign and/or domestic, and we have yet to see how effective the Trump and Biden campaigns will be, assuming that each man is his party’s nominee. Democratic Senator Harry Reid was deeply unpopular here in 2009, then got reelected by almost six percentage points; Barack Obama was thought to be in trouble in 2011, then won Nevada and reelection.

Democrats clearly hope that if Trump becomes the Republican nominee, many voters will see the election as a binary choice and will back Biden. But if the election instead becomes a referendum on Biden’s tenure, including the economy he has presided over, Trump could plausibly win Nevada—and the Electoral College.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We are gonna win NV if Trump wins a swing state it's NC but we haven't seen anymore NC G polls

[Octowakandi]

Got to be tilt Trump at this point, Trump appear ahead 2 to 4 nationally, 50:50 with hispanics, tho Nv Dems always seem to pick rabbit out of hat, I was totally shocked when Reid won in 2010, they always seem to have just enough votes like Reid's 1998 victory or Masto last time

It'll be close but Jon Ralston, who has basically always been right about Nevada politics, says that at his point in the game, is probably a lean Trump state. Of course, a lot can change between now and Nov.

When did he say this?

There's a Nov 2023 radio excerpt of him saying both Independent voters and Latino voters in the state were leaning towards Trump according to polls from 3 months ago
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2023/11/07/nevada-2024-poll

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/11/nevada-biden-trump-2024-polling/675997/

So many events could intervene between now and next November, foreign and/or domestic, and we have yet to see how effective the Trump and Biden campaigns will be, assuming that each man is his party’s nominee. Democratic Senator Harry Reid was deeply unpopular here in 2009, then got reelected by almost six percentage points; Barack Obama was thought to be in trouble in 2011, then won Nevada and reelection.

Democrats clearly hope that if Trump becomes the Republican nominee, many voters will see the election as a binary choice and will back Biden. But if the election instead becomes a referendum on Biden’s tenure, including the economy he has presided over, Trump could plausibly win Nevada—and the Electoral College.

He also said"lean trump" yesterday on the Focus Group Podcast, hosted by the Bulwark.

[mileslunn]

I think death of Harry Reid somewhat hurt Democrats as he had a great ground game and in close races ground organization matters a lot.  Also depends heavily if Trump's gains amongst Hispanics materialize or not.  Romney in 2012 did better amongst whites in Nevada than Trump 2020 but lost state by larger margin due to his horrible showing amongst Hispanics.  Likewise while skeptical, polls show Trump got 19% of the Black vote in 2020 which was way higher than any other state.  Also Asians sizeable and mostly Filipino who GOP tends to do better amongst than Chinese or Indians.  Amongst whites, percent with college degree is below national average so expecting Biden to gain amongst whites to offset losses amongst non-whites is questionable. 

Real difficulty though for GOP is Nevada is one of the most urbanized states in the country, even more so than many solid blue ones and GOP's struggles in metro areas biggest barrier.  Likewise I think Trump's opposition to lockdowns helped him Nevada in 2020 as economy really depends on tourism and things being open so that maybe big reason he got 19% of Black vote as many there were in jobs that depended on things re-opening. 

[🥥🌴]

I think it flips due to:

- lower turnout in urban areas compared to 2020
- Biden doing worse among the young & hispanics & minority demographics
- NV having a unique economy and that economy having been hurt by the world instability and covid.

There are other reasons but if the NPV is Trump +2 + /+4 it flips.

Biden did very well in Clark County in 2020 (but so did Trump). It depends a lot on turnout. Trump needs to close 40K gap compared to 2020, and i think 10K almost guaranteed (unless biden makes up for that elsewhere), but that still leaves like 30K. But it's not hard to see it flip. It's also not hard to see it go for Trump by 2 or like even 5, but that'll require clark county narrowing down which might happen if ppl vote third party or stay home (raw votes that Biden needs).

Washoe County is interesting as well, but i think there's less room to fall and in the worst case scenario Biden loses 10K of the vote gap there, but Reno is basically more like Calfifornia. It's not impossible for Biden to expand his vote gap here due to some of the immigration. There's less room to fall also i believe. 2020 was very high turnout but 2016 and 2012 compared to 2008 less so.

The thing is the gap doesn't have to chnage but if the raw vote decreases for both, it means the rurals get proportionally more important (unless turnout also dramatically drops there).

I don't think it is impossible that Washoe will vote to the left of Clark but if that happens, Trump likely wins the state.

[🥥🌴]

Downballot might be very interesting.

If i'd to bet i would say

presidential: Trump between +2 and +4
senate: Rosen +0
district 1: D+2
district 2: safe R
district 3: D+0
district 4: D+2

Must say, excellent D gerrymander here, i don't think one of the districts will flip, even if Trump wins by 3 or 4. District 1 might see the largest shift, but it's district 3 that was the closest in 2022. Also think Rosen holds on, even if Trump takes it by 3 or 4, but a very narrow defeat is possible, i mean if you can win your elections by 10K you can also lose them by 10K. Definitely a contendor for the closest senate race, but Rosen probably overperforms Biden quite a bit.

[DrScholl]

The 2022 say a lot particularly with the federal races. The whole "BUT TRUMP WASN'T ON THE BALLOT!" argument goes out the window considering that some Republicans did better than but still lost anyway. Even with COVID having hit tourism hard the Governor's seat only flipped by a percentage point. Nevada used to be a Republican blowout in midterms, but that changed.

[oldtimer]

The 2022 say a lot particularly with the federal races. The whole "BUT TRUMP WASN'T ON THE BALLOT!" argument goes out the window considering that some Republican did better than but still lost anyway. Even with COVID having hit tourism hard the Governor's seat only flipped by a percentage point. Nevada used to be a Republican blowout in midterms, but that changed.

It was the only swing state that Republicans flipped something in the midterms.

Also the party registration lead for Democrats shrunk again to just 59k.
At that rate it could be possible for Republicans to take the lead for the 1st time since Dec. 2005 by election day.

[oldtimer]

Downballot might be very interesting.

If i'd to bet i would say

presidential: Trump between +2 and +4
senate: Rosen +0
district 1: D+2
district 2: safe R
district 3: D+0
district 4: D+2

Must say, excellent D gerrymander here, i don't think one of the districts will flip, even if Trump wins by 3 or 4. District 1 might see the largest shift, but it's district 3 that was the closest in 2022. Also think Rosen holds on, even if Trump takes it by 3 or 4, but a very narrow defeat is possible, i mean if you can win your elections by 10K you can also lose them by 10K. Definitely a contendor for the closest senate race, but Rosen probably overperforms Biden quite a bit.

Nevada is one of the few states that doesn't seem to give incumbents advantages.

If Trump wins it by 4 everything flips, especially since Las Vegas is slowly turning Republican, the D gerrymander will flip to an R gerrymander.

[SnowLabrador]

It flips, and so does the Senate race.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It flips, and so does the Senate race.

It was wrong last time and Rosen is leading Brown stop Dooming , do you know polls were erroneous in 22 they had a red wave Cook and Sabato ratings still have 303 map

It's 280 days away and we haven't voted YET


Users are so freaked out about Trump and he is still on Trial for J6 there hasn't been any Trials yet

[President Johnson]

This result would be fun: