What black swan events would lock up 2024 for Biden or Trump?
Lock of the race for Biden
1.)2 Trump Convictions (1 would very seriously damage him, 2 locks it up)
2.) AVERAGE Biden approval rating of 45% or higher on election date. That would be a huge jump by Biden's standards and the highest since his honeymoon period
3.) Trump picking Vivek for his VP- I really think he is more toxic than Trump and is easily one of the most dislikable people I've seen. You can't be Trump without Trump
Lock up the Race for Trump
1.) Full blown recession or inflation suddenly spiking within 3 months of the election
2.) Gas prices approaching May-June 2022 levels
3.) Conflict oversees gets worse and tensions escalate in the Israel Palestine war to levels worse that we've seen
I don't think an acquittal would make Trump a lock. It would just give him a bumb.
