February 2024, rate the election

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate the election as of today.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Tilt D, slightly more confident than I was a month ago.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Tilt D

[GAinDC]

If it happened today? Tossup or lean Trump

In November? Lean to likely to Biden

Seems like things are falling into place for Biden’s campaign

[Andrew Cuomo is a No Go]

Tilt Trump at this stage.

Economic numbers are encouraging though. If things continue the way they are going, I expect consumer sentiment (and consequently admin approval) to increase back to pre-covid levels. Remains to be seen if that happens though, so tilt R on current info.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Likely D.

At this point in time, and into the conventions at the very least unless a very early October surprise breaks, Trump wins Nevada (based on recent trends) and Arizona (revenge for 2022); loses Pennsylvania (Act 77 and its consequences) and Michigan (inept state party).

Generally speaking, this would leave him needing both Wisconsin and Georgia. Can he make it? I'm not so sure. Georgia Democrats have become ruthlessly well-organised since Abrams and... with their newfound advantage in and around Atlanta, I would not be surprised if they kept on winning most important statewide elections for the next couple of decades.

Both major parties in Wisconsin are relatively well-oiled machines, but I'm starting to suspect that there's a bit of a backlash going on against the Republicans now: Evers has been re-elected, accusations of gerrymandering ubiquitous and Democrats are seeing more success in judicial elections too. Trump has much more of a shot in WI, but that's hardly saying much.



In order of most to least likely, the next Republican Presidential candidate to sweep AZ-GA-MI-PA-WI will...

■ ~80%: Live in a Midwestern or Southern state (inc. PA, MD, DE)
■ ~70%: Have a working-class background
■ ~65%: Do so after 2040
■ ~50%: Be seeking re-election
■ ~45%: Win the Presidential election, but not on election night
■ ~30%: Be a Southern Baptist
■ ~25%: Not be a non-Hispanic white
■ ~25%: Call the world's most popular sport "football" rather than "soccer"
■ ~20%: Win in a 45+-state landslide
■ ~20%: Have served as a General in the US Army
■ ~17.5%: Lose the Presidential election
■ ~15%: Repudiate Donald Trump
■ ~15%: Support the federal descheduling of marijuana
■ ~12.5%: Have a reputation for being gaffe-prone
■ ~10%: Be called John
■ ~10%: Promise to continue Donald Trump's legacy
■ ~10%: Win the tipping point state by less than 0.098% (New York 1884)
■ ~8%: Support abortion on demand in the first two trimesters
■ ~7.5%: Have first won elected office as a Democrat before switching parties
■ ~5%: Also win California, but not in a landslide election
■ ~5%: Be an Episcopalian
■ ~3%: Support the Convention on the Rights of the Child
■ ~2%: Promise to end all sanctions on Iran
■ ~1%: Be a direct descendant of George W. Bush
■ ~0.9%: Win the tipping point state by less than 0.009% (Florida 2000)
■ ~0.8%: Support Medicare for All
■ ~0.8%: Be called Lydia
■ ~0.75%: Do so in 2024
■ ~0.65%: Have a Super Bowl ring
■ ~0.5%: Win all five states by more than 10%
■ ~0.3%: Be a Native American
■ ~0.075%: Have a son called John and a daughter called Lydia
■ ~0.025%: Live in Washington DC proper
■ ~0.0001%: Live in Loving County, TX
■ negligible: Not win any other states

[seskoog]

Lean D, closer to tilt than likely.

[Podgy the Bear]

Tilt D.  The Democrats are taking this election more seriously.  And even though Trump is going to get the Republican nomination, he's having more difficulty than expected on several fronts.

Still a very long way to go.

[mileslunn]

Tilt R as notwithstanding polls, Biden's approval ratings are way too low to win re-election.  Yes stronger economy should help him thus I expect poll numbers for Democrats to improve but not sure if will be enough.  I think Biden is favored to win popular vote, but electoral college much harder as he needs a 3-4% lead in popular vote to do that.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Lean D.

Donald Trump is utterly unfit to serve as President. That he has any chance whatsoever is shameful, but I believe a small but decisive majority will vote to reject him if they are able to do so.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean D, closer to tilt than likely.

I can agree with this.

It does seem like the Biden campaign and his fortunes are starting to turn around-not completely and maybe not soon enough-but it does feel like things are shifting. Surely it will be easier when, and if, the Gaza situation ends up settled.

[It's Time.]

Lean R, recent economic metrics are encouraging, but I can’t shake the feeling that, due to inflation, Americans perceive of Biden’s economy as worse than Trump. And it does not even need to explained how every other factor is going to benefit Trump (Israel-Palestine, Biden’s low approval, Trump lampooning Biden in national polls, Biden’s age, Biden’s incompetence, etc.)

The one opening the Biden campaign have is abortion, but the attack, while strong, is not as effective against Trump as it is against other Republicans.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

QU trends nevermind the Trump +4 polls they're trashy

[DK_Mo82]

On a 50:50 bet I take Trump , voted tilt Trump, I give him 55-60% chance of win

[SnowLabrador]

Likely R. I mean, when the tied polls are outliers, you know Biden's in a heap of trouble. Besides, even if he wins the popular vote, it's far from guaranteed those votes will be in the right states.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Likely R. I mean, when the tied polls are outliers, you know Biden's in a heap of trouble. Besides, even if he wins the popular vote, it's far from guaranteed those votes will be in the right states.

Are tied polls outliers though? The averages show it pretty close to a tie

Just how big do y'all think the gap is lol?

[mileslunn]

Likely R. I mean, when the tied polls are outliers, you know Biden's in a heap of trouble. Besides, even if he wins the popular vote, it's far from guaranteed those votes will be in the right states.

Are tied polls outliers though? The averages show it pretty close to a tie

Just how big do y'all think the gap is lol?

If tied however, Trump likely wins.  Only way Biden wins is if solid red states swing even harder to Trump which might happen as many dissatisfied Democrats stay home or in blue states Trump does better but still falls short.  Considering how unpopular in blue states he is, I don't see him doing much better than 2020 although one exception is New York where wouldn't be surprised if he gets in low 40s which would be best GOP showing in state since 1988.  I think if Biden wins popular vote by less than 2% then Trump becomes president.  If 2-4% lead then comes down to individual states while more than 4% lead, Biden wins.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Notwithstanding Snowlabrador I told him you have to be bold it's a 303 map I stopped donating to Kunce and ALLRED, it comes down to  Gallego, Tester, and BROWN  and Osborne

The GA polls and AZ polls are pure trash and we aren't gonna win NC, you not supposed to take every poll literally polls LIED

Redban is so obsessed with polls, too obsessed

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tilt R.  I'm pretty confident Trump would win in an election held today, but I expect that to tighten.  I think it comes down to a few votes in a few states, just like 2016 and 2020.  I'd say pure tossup if that were an option.  My bold pick is that Trump is just as likely to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college as the other way around.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

Lean R, closer to Likely R than Tilt R

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tilt - Lean Biden. I'll leave it at tilt though because of how far out we are and polling.

[It's Time.]

My bold pick is that Trump is just as likely to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college as the other way around.

That would truly be the best timeline.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, closer to Likely R than Tilt R

These are polls 290 days away you really believe in polls and QU totally discounted the hack MC polls, obviously it's a 303 map Biden is @45 Approvals the same as he once was in 20/22

[Ferguson97]

My bold pick is that Trump is just as likely to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college as the other way around.

I sincerely hope this happens, since it might finally mean we can abolish it.

[7,052,770]

My bold pick is that Trump is just as likely to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college as the other way around.

I sincerely hope this happens, since it might finally mean we can abolish it.

I sincerely hope that doesn't happen, because Republicans' reaction to it would probably be far worse and more violent than in 2020.

We need Biden to win a convincing victory, bigger than in 2020, so that the Republican Party has no choice but to move away from Trumpism.