How do you rank the 6 swing states from most likely to go for Trump to least likely
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  How do you rank the 6 swing states from most likely to go for Trump to least likely		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: How do you rank the 6 swing states from most likely to go for Trump to least likely  (Read 781 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: February 02, 2024, 02:29:28 PM »
Mine would be

1. Georgia
2. Nevada
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan(I still think this comes down to whether or not African American turnout remains high)
6. Pennsylvania 
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2024, 02:34:58 PM »
1. Georgia
2. Nevada
3. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
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Mr. Third-Wayist
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« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2024, 02:37:21 PM »
1. Georgia
2. Wisconsin
3. Nevada
4. Arizona
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2024, 02:38:49 PM »
NV-AZ-WI-GA-PA-MI
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oldtimer
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« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2024, 02:57:01 PM »
I'm not that influenced by polls.

1. NV (due to it's shifting party registration, which is gold in NV)
2. GA (due to the Biden campaign bailing out of the state)
3. AZ (due to ever larger Trump gains with Hispanics, it should flip at some point)
4. WI (the only midwest state that was close in the midterms)
Joint 5th. PA (can't see Biden offset loses from Philadelphia given the slim margin)
Joint 5th. MI (more room for Biden being offset by greater share of minorities)
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2024, 03:49:48 PM »
1) GA
2) WI
3) MI
4) AZ
5) PA
6) NV
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GAinDC
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2024, 05:29:29 PM »
Quote from: oldtimer on February 02, 2024, 02:57:01 PM
I'm not that influenced by polls.

1. NV (due to it's shifting party registration, which is gold in NV)
2. GA (due to the Biden campaign bailing out of the state)
3. AZ (due to ever larger Trump gains with Hispanics, it should flip at some point)
4. WI (the only midwest state that was close in the midterms)
Joint 5th. PA (can't see Biden offset loses from Philadelphia given the slim margin)
Joint 5th. MI (more room for Biden being offset by greater share of minorities)


Who says Biden is bailing on Georgia?
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here2view
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2024, 05:42:19 PM »
GA > NV > WI > AZ > PA > MI
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mileslunn
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« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2024, 05:43:13 PM »
1.  Wisconsin
2.  Nevada
3.  Arizona
4.  Georgia
5.  Pennsylvania
6.  Michigan
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seskoog
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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2024, 05:51:46 PM »
« Edited: February 02, 2024, 07:17:27 PM by seskoog »
1. Georgia
2. Nevada
3. Wisconsin
4. Arizona
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
(The last three have probabilities that are very close together)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #10 on: February 02, 2024, 05:58:45 PM »
1. Wisconsin
2. Arizona
3. Georgia
4. Nevada
5. Michigan
6. Pennsylvania
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mileslunn
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« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2024, 06:37:36 PM »
A lot put Georgia is most vulnerable which I don't think is case as trend over past decade and continued in midterms at senate level is Atlanta metro area is growing fast and Democrat gains are coming less from people changing votes and more new people to state are breaking heavily for Democrats.  Many suburban counties Biden won are a lot less white than they were in past so it was new voters that flipped them.  Only way Georgia is best of the six is if Trump does surprisingly well amongst Black community.  A lot showing him with biggest lead there are polls showing Trump at over 20% amongst African-Americans and that is not happening.  Amongst whites, Trump is already winning big in Georgia so has less room for growth whereas in other 5, Biden still has over 40% of white vote in each and in fact asides Nevada maybe even north of 45% while in case of Wisconsin, Trump probably only won white vote by around 3 points.  So only way for swing in Georgia is if GOP does better amongst African-Americans and unlike with Hispanics which I could see happening, I think with African-Americans much less likely.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #12 on: February 02, 2024, 07:03:31 PM »
1. Wisconsin.
2. Georgia.
3. Arizona.
4. Nevada.
5. Pennsylvania.
6. Michigan.
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xavier110
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« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2024, 08:38:49 PM »
I’m definitely not on the same page as the consensus, it seems.

All sort of the same flavor
1a. Michigan
1b. Pennsylvania
1c. Wisconsin
—
A bit of a wildcard
4. Nevada
—
Storming left
5. Georgia
6. Arizona
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BG-NY (permanently retired)
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« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2024, 09:58:20 PM »
WI (70%)
MI (65%)
GA (60%)
PA (55%)
NV (50%)
AZ (40%)

NV is best on fundamentals but it’s the closest thing to Lucy holding the football the GOP has.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #15 on: February 02, 2024, 10:19:46 PM »
Quote from: BG-NY on February 02, 2024, 09:58:20 PM
WI (70%)
MI (65%)
GA (60%)
PA (55%)
NV (50%)
AZ (40%)

NV is best on fundamentals but it’s the closest thing to Lucy holding the football the GOP has.

What is the % chance of Trump winning the lection
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BG-NY (permanently retired)
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« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2024, 10:44:56 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 02, 2024, 10:19:46 PM
Quote from: BG-NY on February 02, 2024, 09:58:20 PM
WI (70%)
MI (65%)
GA (60%)
PA (55%)
NV (50%)
AZ (40%)

NV is best on fundamentals but it’s the closest thing to Lucy holding the football the GOP has.

What is the % chance of Trump winning the lection
If it was today? 100%
In November, 65%
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2024, 11:54:29 PM »
Georgia
Nevada
Arizona
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Michigan
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #18 on: February 03, 2024, 10:29:31 PM »
1. Georgia
2. Nevada
3. Michigan
4. Arizona
5. Wisconsin
6. Pennsylvania
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #19 on: February 03, 2024, 10:35:11 PM »
Fun fact, there are 720 possible orders for this which is why its unlikely multiple people have the same.
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jrk26
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« Reply #20 on: February 03, 2024, 11:03:48 PM »
1. Nevada
2. Georgia
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Pennsylvania
6. Arizona
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ClassicElectionEnthusiast
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« Reply #21 on: February 04, 2024, 10:17:52 AM »
My guess is the following order:

1. Georgia
2. Arizona
3. Nevada
4. Michigan
5. Pennsylvania
6. Wisconsin
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #22 on: February 04, 2024, 01:07:19 PM »
Nevada
Georgia
Arizona
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
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Adjective-Statement
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« Reply #23 on: February 04, 2024, 01:13:55 PM »
1. Georgia
2. Wisconsin
3. Pennsylvania
4. Arizona
5. Michigan
6. Nevada
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