Ever since R's took the House in 2022 D's are living in this bubble that they sweep in 2024

[2016]

I don't think that will happen.

We will likely having divided Government again.

Biden wins with a 2020-like margin

Democrats narrowly take the House

Republicans win the Senate

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think only the most optimistic Democrats are expecting a sweep.  The consensus here and elsewhere seems to be that Republicans are quite likely to flip the Senate, while Democrats are more likely than not to flip the House.  Opinions on the presidency are obviously all over the place.

[2016]

I think only the most optimistic Democrats are expecting a sweep.  The consensus here and elsewhere seems to be that Republicans are quite likely to flip the Senate, while Democrats are more likely than not to flip the House.  Opinions on the presidency are obviously all over the place.

Olowakandi

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think only the most optimistic Democrats are expecting a sweep.  The consensus here and elsewhere seems to be that Republicans are quite likely to flip the Senate, while Democrats are more likely than not to flip the House.  Opinions on the presidency are obviously all over the place.

Yeah I'd be considered an optimistic Dem in the context of this forum and I would still rate the Senate as Lean R. I don't think a trifecta is impossible but it involves a lot of things going right, even in a good national environment.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

I mean, doesn't that just prove exceptions happen?

[Banana Republican]

Republicans take the Senate

Dems narrowly take the House

Biden beats Trump with a 303 map, but the margins in several states are narrow (narrower than 2020), and Trump claims victory and calls for an uprising

Chaos ensues

[It's Time.]

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

And even still, that was only due to extreme R gerrymanders in the house. Now the house is more balanced (i.e. Dem gerrymanders and GOP gerrymanders mostly cancel out)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Conventional wisdom suggests that Democrats lose the Senate with the House and presidency as tossups. I'm not sure who or what you're referring to here.

[Ferguson97]

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

I'm not sure if we should be drawing too many conclusions from a sample size of 6.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

I mean, doesn't that just prove exceptions happen?

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

And even still, that was only due to extreme R gerrymanders in the house. Now the house is more balanced (i.e. Dem gerrymanders and GOP gerrymanders mostly cancel out)

Basically the only reason Democrats didn't win the House in 2012 was gerrymandering. And Democrats beign concentrated in cities, bad geography. It took gaining in the suburbs to spread out their reach.

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

That said....Democrats only won a trifecta in 2020 because John McCain died and Johnny Isakson retired in Georgia, creating two special races

Without them, Democrats wouldn't even have the pickup oppurtunites to win. They need to flip 4 seats. The only realistic chances were Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. That gets you 49 seats since Alabama flips

[ProgressiveModerate]

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

I mean, doesn't that just prove exceptions happen?

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

And even still, that was only due to extreme R gerrymanders in the house. Now the house is more balanced (i.e. Dem gerrymanders and GOP gerrymanders mostly cancel out)

Basically the only reason Democrats didn't win the House in 2012 was gerrymandering. And Democrats beign concentrated in cities, bad geography. It took gaining in the suburbs to spread out their reach.

Every election since 2000 has resulted in a trifecta except 2012.

That said....Democrats only won a trifecta in 2020 because John McCain died and Johnny Isakson retired in Georgia, creating two special races

Without them, Democrats wouldn't even have the pickup oppurtunites to win. They need to flip 4 seats. The only realistic chances were Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. That gets you 49 seats since Alabama flips

And regular GA-Sen hit at the time most saw it as a Lean or Likely R race.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is leading and I know Cruz is ahead by 9 but that isn't that big and Ds are on the verge of the H. If Gallegos is elected did you see the 26/28 S maps its 303 anyways if we fall short im 24 again we will take it in 26/28 anyways.  Tills, Daines, Collins are vulnerable in 26 and Johnson is Doomed in 28

Sara Rodriguez already said she is likely to run for Sen after 2 T as LT Gov in WI so a Fetterman, Rodriguez dual is likely in 28

So we have 2 more tries after 24 to get the Filibuster proof Trifecta.

I have faith that Allred, Brown and Tester are gonna get elected in 2024

Users act like 9 pts is big no it's not,Collins was down 50/42 to Gideon and wound up winning that's how much you can depend on an 8 or lead, Peltola was down by 8 pts to Palin and all the Rs had Palin winning AK

[SnowLabrador]

It'll be an R sweep. Yes, even the House. I expect that Biden's toxicity will trickle down just enough for Repubicans to hold the House.