What’s your takeaway from the Georgia polls?

[Devils30]

If Trump wins it it's of the 0-2% variety with rural swings that narrowly counter the metro Atlanta swing.

[Devils30]

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/6793459/SPIA-GE-Poll-Results.pdf

The march 2020 poll was off but made sense in terms of the crosstabs.

[mileslunn]

Trump could win state, but I think due to people who have moved there since election, probably needs to swing about 40-50k votes which is very doable.  Where I question polls is most showing Trump with solid lead have him getting over 20% of Black vote which is not happening.  I think lower turnout of Democrats, slight improvement of whites with a college degree is how he would flip state.

[Devils30]

A lot of these polls show Trump winning moderates in GA, including this one. You wonder if this relates to black moderate Dems not responding to polls. Biden appears to be matching his 2020 numbers with white college, suburbanites. The delta between Kemp and Walker was with these voters, if you look at maps there are very few differences in Warnock vs. Abrams in the heavily black Atlanta precincts. In other words, if Trump is really winning GA by 8, his coalition will be completely different.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't expect Biden to win GA this time around. He was only able to barely win it in 2020, and I doubt his PV margin, assuming he wins it, will be more than in 2020 unless a conviction actually does happen and sinks Trump.

Does that take into account the trend of the state? If GA has trended left since 2020, then he could still win it even if he wins the popular vote by less

I don't know how it has trended since 2020. My gut just tells me if the election were held today, Trump wins it. Of course, a lot can happen between now and election day.

My question to those who think Trump will win is, How does he do it?

Does he gain in the suburbs? Build up more support in cities? Juice up rural turnout? Or does Dem apathy save him?

None of those things are guaranteed and it’s just as likely that the growth of blue trending areas in the state could boost Biden.

I think Biden wins in part because growth pads him a bit, but I Trump's most likely path is low black turnout and juicing more % out of Hispanics, Asians, and non-college whites. Trump still suffers unfavorable swings in most of metro Atlanta but the low black turnout ultimately saves him.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't expect Biden to win GA this time around. He was only able to barely win it in 2020, and I doubt his PV margin, assuming he wins it, will be more t
Than in 2020 unless a conviction actually does happen and sinks Trump.

Does that take into account the trend of the state? If GA has trended left since 2020, then he could still win it even if he wins the popular vote by less

I don't know how it has trended since 2020. My gut just tells me if the election were held today, Trump wins it. Of course, a lot can happen between now and election day.

My question to those who think Trump will win is, How does he do it?

Does he gain in the suburbs? Build up more support in cities? Juice up rural turnout? Or does Dem apathy save him?

None of those things are guaranteed and it’s just as likely that the growth of blue trending areas in the state could boost Biden.

I think Biden wins in part because growth pads him a bit, but I Trump's most likely path is low black turnout and juicing more % out of Hispanics, Asians, and non-college whites. Trump still suffers unfavorable swings in most of metro Atlanta but the low black turnout ultimately saves him.

With all due respect, it is kind of holier than thou to act like there is no way blacks could ever actually vote R. I mean, they literally vote 90% Democratic, more than their educational attainment and more than they are left ideologically from the polls I can see. I also would point out that the significant swings to republicans with minorities happened in 2020 when turnout was at it's highest in decades. So I don't buy that the lowest propensity blacks are neccessarily any bluer than the high propensity ones.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't expect Biden to win GA this time around. He was only able to barely win it in 2020, and I doubt his PV margin, assuming he wins it, will be more t
Than in 2020 unless a conviction actually does happen and sinks Trump.

Does that take into account the trend of the state? If GA has trended left since 2020, then he could still win it even if he wins the popular vote by less

I don't know how it has trended since 2020. My gut just tells me if the election were held today, Trump wins it. Of course, a lot can happen between now and election day.

My question to those who think Trump will win is, How does he do it?

Does he gain in the suburbs? Build up more support in cities? Juice up rural turnout? Or does Dem apathy save him?

None of those things are guaranteed and it’s just as likely that the growth of blue trending areas in the state could boost Biden.

I think Biden wins in part because growth pads him a bit, but I Trump's most likely path is low black turnout and juicing more % out of Hispanics, Asians, and non-college whites. Trump still suffers unfavorable swings in most of metro Atlanta but the low black turnout ultimately saves him.

With all due respect, it is kind of holier than thou to act like there is no way blacks could ever actually vote R. I mean, they literally vote 90% Democratic, more than their educational attainment and more than they are left ideologically from the polls I can see. I also would point out that the significant swings to republicans with minorities happened in 2020 when turnout was at it's highest in decades. So I don't buy that the lowest propensity blacks are neccessarily any bluer than the high propensity ones.

I definitely think black voters could swing right - infact I think they probably due to some degree, but I still think turnout is the more important variable. Heck in GA 2020 black voters as a whole seems to narrowly swing right but the increase in turnout more than canceled that out.