What’s your takeaway from the Georgia polls?

[GAinDC]

Is Trump’s lead there as strong as the polls show?

[wbrocks67]

Clear nonresponse bias that has been a trend, where it's apparently extremely hard for many pollsters to find Dem-leaning young/nonwhite voters so the samples look whacky.

Call me a hack all you want but Trump is not getting 23% of the black vote in Georgia or winning young voters. Brian Kemp of all people won by 7 in 2022. People think Trump is winning by more than that, seriously?

Georgia has slowly been trending left for years now. It would make no sense for it to snap back 7-8% in a single election.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump won't win by 8 points however, "non-response bias" wasn't a problem in 2022 in Georgia. WI/MI
 2022 polls overestimated republicans more than GA. And it would take a pretty horrible bias for Trump to actually lose GA if he's routinely up by high single digits

[Sir Mohamed]

Wasn't he ahead by similar margins in early in the 2020 cycle? Still might tell us Biden is more vulnerable in GA than in any other state he flipped the last time around.

I would be more worried to see the same numbers on or after Labor Day. Then it would suggest Trump indeed makes inroad among black voters or Biden just lost too much support among them.

[wbrocks67]

Wasn't he ahead by similar margins in early in the 2020 cycle? Still might tell us Biden is more vulnerable in GA than in any other state he flipped the last time around.

I would be more worried to see the same numbers on or after Labor Day. Then it would suggest Trump indeed makes inroad among black voters or Biden just lost too much support among them.

Yep there were multiple polls with similar margins-

Mason-Dixon (Dec 2019): Trump +7
Univ of GA (Feb 2020): Trump +8
WSB-TV/Landmark (August 2020): Trump +7

Also, there was nonresponse bias in 2022 as well. There were numerous polls that showed Herschel Walker winning Independents and getting 20% or more of the black vote, neither of which came to fruition.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

They aren't real they are bogus made up numbers just like MC business polls, you don't see Redban anywhere when you see Biden good Approval

[President Johnson]

Wasn't he ahead by similar margins in early in the 2020 cycle? Still might tell us Biden is more vulnerable in GA than in any other state he flipped the last time around.

I would be more worried to see the same numbers on or after Labor Day. Then it would suggest Trump indeed makes inroad among black voters or Biden just lost too much support among them.

Yep there were multiple polls with similar margins-

Mason-Dixon (Dec 2019): Trump +7
Univ of GA (Feb 2020): Trump +8
WSB-TV/Landmark (August 2020): Trump +7

Also, there was nonresponse bias in 2022 as well. There were numerous polls that showed Herschel Walker winning Independents and getting 20% or more of the black vote, neither of which came to fruition.

Agreed, we need to see more polls later in the campaign. I don't believe 2020 was just a fluke like Indiana 2008 as Warnock still won 2022 in a neutral environment. Biden might be in bigger trouble against Haley or even DeSantis in Georgia, but Trump is actually a bad fit for the state.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

That polling is weird and Trump winning GA by high single digits is just as likely as Biden winning PA by high single digits

[Tekken_Guy]

That Trump is probably being overestimated because of pollsters are having difficulty reaching black voters.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It's blk and Minorities, Blks aren't for Trump

[oldtimer]

That the Biden campaign has bailed on Georgia is a indicator that they see what we see.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump is being overestimated, but he's probably a narrow favorite right now to carry the state. Trump winning Georgia and losing the Presidency is more likely than Biden winning it and losing the White House. Georgia will probably vote to the right of the popular vote.

[South Dakota Democrat]

That the Biden campaign has bailed on Georgia is a indicator that they see what we see.

They haven't though?

[oldtimer]

That the Biden campaign has bailed on Georgia is a indicator that they see what we see.

They haven't though?

https://themessenger.com/politics/why-joe-biden-thinks-he-can-flip-north-carolina-blue-in-2024

 "Democrats to be even more bullish about winning North Carolina in 2024 than they are about carrying Georgia for a second campaign in a row."

An admission that they don't think Georgia is currently winnable.

[Tekken_Guy]

That the Biden campaign has bailed on Georgia is a indicator that they see what we see.

They haven't though?

https://themessenger.com/politics/why-joe-biden-thinks-he-can-flip-north-carolina-blue-in-2024

 "Democrats to be even more bullish about winning North Carolina in 2024 than they are about carrying Georgia for a second campaign in a row."

An admission that they don't think Georgia is currently winnable.

This could be interpreted as optimism on NC instead.

[oldtimer]

That the Biden campaign has bailed on Georgia is a indicator that they see what we see.

They haven't though?

https://themessenger.com/politics/why-joe-biden-thinks-he-can-flip-north-carolina-blue-in-2024

 "Democrats to be even more bullish about winning North Carolina in 2024 than they are about carrying Georgia for a second campaign in a row."

An admission that they don't think Georgia is currently winnable.

This could be interpreted as optimism on NC instead.

Quite the reverse, as already been discussed here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=578179.0

[Duke 🇺🇸]

I don't expect Biden to win GA this time around. He was only able to barely win it in 2020, and I doubt his PV margin, assuming he wins it, will be more than in 2020 unless a conviction actually does happen and sinks Trump.

[GAinDC]

I don't expect Biden to win GA this time around. He was only able to barely win it in 2020, and I doubt his PV margin, assuming he wins it, will be more than in 2020 unless a conviction actually does happen and sinks Trump.

Does that take into account the trend of the state? If GA has trended left since 2020, then he could still win it even if he wins the popular vote by less

[Duke 🇺🇸]

I don't expect Biden to win GA this time around. He was only able to barely win it in 2020, and I doubt his PV margin, assuming he wins it, will be more than in 2020 unless a conviction actually does happen and sinks Trump.

Does that take into account the trend of the state? If GA has trended left since 2020, then he could still win it even if he wins the popular vote by less

I don't know how it has trended since 2020. My gut just tells me if the election were held today, Trump wins it. Of course, a lot can happen between now and election day.

[GAinDC]

I don't expect Biden to win GA this time around. He was only able to barely win it in 2020, and I doubt his PV margin, assuming he wins it, will be more than in 2020 unless a conviction actually does happen and sinks Trump.

Does that take into account the trend of the state? If GA has trended left since 2020, then he could still win it even if he wins the popular vote by less

I don't know how it has trended since 2020. My gut just tells me if the election were held today, Trump wins it. Of course, a lot can happen between now and election day.

My question to those who think Trump will win is, How does he do it?

Does he gain in the suburbs? Build up more support in cities? Juice up rural turnout? Or does Dem apathy save him?

None of those things are guaranteed and it’s just as likely that the growth of blue trending areas in the state could boost Biden.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The compiled map is so silly how do you have WI and NV going R and the polls were wrong in both in 22, the MC polls proved that they are unreliable because QU discredited them

GA included the only state that moves right aside from TX and FL is NC due to reappointment, and some Atlas forum users still think NC is a D state

[South Dakota Democrat]

That the Biden campaign has bailed on Georgia is a indicator that they see what we see.

They haven't though?

https://themessenger.com/politics/why-joe-biden-thinks-he-can-flip-north-carolina-blue-in-2024

 "Democrats to be even more bullish about winning North Carolina in 2024 than they are about carrying Georgia for a second campaign in a row."

An admission that they don't think Georgia is currently winnable.

1. "Democrats" doesn't necessarily mean "the Biden campaign."
2. Even if that were true, thinking one state may vote to the left of another state doesn't mean you've bailed.
3. Why do you lack reading comprehension skills?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Given trends, knowledge of how to win the state again, the state Democratic party becoming more competent, and the state’s apparent dislike of election denial (while being the epicenter, pretty much, for the conspiracies leading to the trials and everything)-it's foolish to count Biden out.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

They're trash

[SnowLabrador]

I don't expect Biden to win GA this time around. He was only able to barely win it in 2020, and I doubt his PV margin, assuming he wins it, will be more than in 2020 unless a conviction actually does happen and sinks Trump.

It's pretty shocking how far we've fallen that the potential criminal conviction of a former President is treated as just another issue in an election in which that former President is a candidate. America is a sick, depraved nation.