What will be Biden’s best state of the big six?

[Tekken_Guy]

What will be Biden’s best state of the big six states?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Michigan.

[dw93]

Can't decide between PA and MI.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think AZ is probably the easiest for him to "run away" with because of how concentrated the population is in 2 major metros both of which have generally had positive shifts for Dems. Also, Dems performance in 2022 AZ races was genuinely impressive especially when you consider re-alignment tends to lag and the low Hispanic midterm turnout.

All the other states have more obvious places where Trump can counteract gains Biden might make in educated and suburban communities.

My current guess for AZ is about Biden + 4/5

[mileslunn]

Should be Pennsylvania by demographics, but I think Michigan due to GOP being in more disarray narrowly beats it out.  Georgia is also one that I think has better odds than many realize.  It saw biggest shift in 2020 and its demographics are seeing biggest swing towards Democrats. 

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Arizona or Georgia

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wisconsin. And I don't want to hear that the polls are "overestimating" Biden in WI when they literally underestimated Mandela Barnes/Tony Evers. It's obvious the Trump/MAGA non response has evaporated(not saying it's reversed, just that it is no longer present for the GOP)

[TDAS04]

In a Trump or narrow Biden Electoral College victory, I'd say Pennsylvania, but it could very well be Michigan. If Biden wins in a not-so-close election (something that may not be likely at this point), probably Michigan or Nevada.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

Arizona. It would be quite odd to me if Trump were to rebound here after underperforming fairly significantly in 2016, followed by major D victories in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Especially when the GOP ticket will be the nuclear option: Trump and Lake. Like, gimme a break. We would have to be in great depression times for them to be winning by anything more than 2-3 points or so. The state will swing D vs. NPV.

[seskoog]

It could be any of AZ/PA/MI. I’m fairly confident that those three states will be bluer than WI, which will be bluer than NV, which will be bluer than GA

[Ferguson97]

Pennsylvania or Arizona, leaning towards the former.

[CheapDollarEra?]

Pennsylvania?

[LastMcGovernite]

Michigan. There is a real danger of the Arabic vote being eroded, but a year from now, we'll be laughing at how much bed-wetting there was among the prognosticati.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I voted Arizona.  I think it will be Arizona or Pennsylvania.

[ProudModerate2]

Pennsylvania