Michigan vs Pennsylvania

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Wisconsin is his easiest state, but Michigan seems to be more ripe for Trump than Pennsylvania right now.

[Tekken_Guy]

Still Pennsylvania. I think Trump’s good showing in Michigan polls is because he’s being overestimated with minorities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Narrowly leaning towards MI for a variety of reasons.

Obviously, you have the Arab vote in MI. But beyond that, you have a bunch of other smaller problems for Biden like the fact Detroit is depopulating and relatively low college attainment.

PA is a demographically better fit for Biden than MI, and SEPA being the fastest growing part of the state and being increasingly culturally pulled into the northeast helps. It also seems like shifts in Pittsburg have been really solid for Dems as it revitalizes to more white collar industries.

Overall though, a huge factor is that in 2020, team Trump basically bailed in MI by the time election day came and I think it showed in the results, with Biden improving across MI even in places he demographically "shouldn't" have. This time around, I doubt either side bails on MI.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Pennsylvania. He'll still lose the state by a couple of percentage points anyway.

[seskoog]

I don't know. Both states will vote close to the same IMO. WI will vote to the right of both

[Arizona Iced Tea]

My reasoning for Michigan:
-Arabs
-Less white
-Rurals not maxed out for Rs yet
-Abortion already a settled issue
-Less college educated
-More working class

IMO Trump's path to the white house is GA -> WI -> MI

[Tekken_Guy]

Narrowly leaning towards PA for a variety of reasons.

Obviously, you have the Arab vote in MI. But beyond that, you have a bunch of other smaller problems for Biden like the fact Detroit is depopulating and relatively low college attainment.

PA is a demographically better fit for Biden than MI, and SEPA being the fastest growing part of the state and being increasingly culturally pulled into the northeast helps. It also seems like shifts in Pittsburg have been really solid for Dems as it revitalizes to more white collar industries.

Overall though, a huge factor is that in 2020, team Trump basically bailed in MI by the time election day came and I think it showed in the results, with Biden improving across MI even in places he demographically "shouldn't" have. This time around, I doubt either side bails on MI.

How is this a case for Trump doing better in PA?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Narrowly leaning towards PA for a variety of reasons.

Obviously, you have the Arab vote in MI. But beyond that, you have a bunch of other smaller problems for Biden like the fact Detroit is depopulating and relatively low college attainment.

PA is a demographically better fit for Biden than MI, and SEPA being the fastest growing part of the state and being increasingly culturally pulled into the northeast helps. It also seems like shifts in Pittsburg have been really solid for Dems as it revitalizes to more white collar industries.

Overall though, a huge factor is that in 2020, team Trump basically bailed in MI by the time election day came and I think it showed in the results, with Biden improving across MI even in places he demographically "shouldn't" have. This time around, I doubt either side bails on MI.

How is this a case for Trump doing better in PA?

Forgot the question was in terms of Trump lol.

[Tekken_Guy]

Narrowly leaning towards PA for a variety of reasons.

Obviously, you have the Arab vote in MI. But beyond that, you have a bunch of other smaller problems for Biden like the fact Detroit is depopulating and relatively low college attainment.

PA is a demographically better fit for Biden than MI, and SEPA being the fastest growing part of the state and being increasingly culturally pulled into the northeast helps. It also seems like shifts in Pittsburg have been really solid for Dems as it revitalizes to more white collar industries.

Overall though, a huge factor is that in 2020, team Trump basically bailed in MI by the time election day came and I think it showed in the results, with Biden improving across MI even in places he demographically "shouldn't" have. This time around, I doubt either side bails on MI.

How is this a case for Trump doing better in PA?

Forgot the question was in terms of Trump lol.

Did you vote the wrong way in the poll too?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Narrowly leaning towards PA for a variety of reasons.

Obviously, you have the Arab vote in MI. But beyond that, you have a bunch of other smaller problems for Biden like the fact Detroit is depopulating and relatively low college attainment.

PA is a demographically better fit for Biden than MI, and SEPA being the fastest growing part of the state and being increasingly culturally pulled into the northeast helps. It also seems like shifts in Pittsburg have been really solid for Dems as it revitalizes to more white collar industries.

Overall though, a huge factor is that in 2020, team Trump basically bailed in MI by the time election day came and I think it showed in the results, with Biden improving across MI even in places he demographically "shouldn't" have. This time around, I doubt either side bails on MI.

How is this a case for Trump doing better in PA?

Forgot the question was in terms of Trump lol.

Did you vote the wrong way in the poll too?

I was naughty and didn't vote

[Tekken_Guy]

Narrowly leaning towards PA for a variety of reasons.

Obviously, you have the Arab vote in MI. But beyond that, you have a bunch of other smaller problems for Biden like the fact Detroit is depopulating and relatively low college attainment.

PA is a demographically better fit for Biden than MI, and SEPA being the fastest growing part of the state and being increasingly culturally pulled into the northeast helps. It also seems like shifts in Pittsburg have been really solid for Dems as it revitalizes to more white collar industries.

Overall though, a huge factor is that in 2020, team Trump basically bailed in MI by the time election day came and I think it showed in the results, with Biden improving across MI even in places he demographically "shouldn't" have. This time around, I doubt either side bails on MI.

How is this a case for Trump doing better in PA?

Forgot the question was in terms of Trump lol.

Did you vote the wrong way in the poll too?

I was naughty and didn't vote

Why not?

[mileslunn]

Wisconsin will of three rust belt be best for Trump.  Heck I would not be surprised if Trump does worse in Arizona and Georgia than Wisconsin regardless of which way they go.  On surface Michigan is probably marginally better than Pennsylvania as others have explained, but I still think he does slightly better in Pennsylvania due to ground organization.  Michigan GOP is an absolute mess, sort of like Democrats in Ohio and Florida so much like in midterms GOP probably underperforms polls in Michigan whereas in Pennsylvania likely gets about what polls say. 

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Wisconsin will of three rust belt be best for Trump.  Heck I would not be surprised if Trump does worse in Arizona and Georgia than Wisconsin regardless of which way they go.  On surface Michigan is probably marginally better than Pennsylvania as others have explained, but I still think he does slightly better in Pennsylvania due to ground organization.  Michigan GOP is an absolute mess, sort of like Democrats in Ohio and Florida so much like in midterms GOP probably underperforms polls in Michigan whereas in Pennsylvania likely gets about what polls say. 

MI GOP might be turning things around, it looks like they ousted the crazy lady from the chair position, and their senate field seems to have decent candidates compared to the clown show they put up in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

Wisconsin will of three rust belt be best for Trump.  Heck I would not be surprised if Trump does worse in Arizona and Georgia than Wisconsin regardless of which way they go.  On surface Michigan is probably marginally better than Pennsylvania as others have explained, but I still think he does slightly better in Pennsylvania due to ground organization.  Michigan GOP is an absolute mess, sort of like Democrats in Ohio and Florida so much like in midterms GOP probably underperforms polls in Michigan whereas in Pennsylvania likely gets about what polls say. 

MI GOP might be turning things around, it looks like they ousted the crazy lady from the chair position, and their senate field seems to have decent candidates compared to the clown show they put up in 2022.

It might be too late at this point and Karamo doesn’t seem to be going down without a fight.

Also Pete Hoekstra is the guy that lost by 20 points in 2012.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Wisconsin will of three rust belt be best for Trump.  Heck I would not be surprised if Trump does worse in Arizona and Georgia than Wisconsin regardless of which way they go.  On surface Michigan is probably marginally better than Pennsylvania as others have explained, but I still think he does slightly better in Pennsylvania due to ground organization.  Michigan GOP is an absolute mess, sort of like Democrats in Ohio and Florida so much like in midterms GOP probably underperforms polls in Michigan whereas in Pennsylvania likely gets about what polls say. 

MI GOP might be turning things around, it looks like they ousted the crazy lady from the chair position, and their senate field seems to have decent candidates compared to the clown show they put up in 2022.

It might be too late at this point and Karamo doesn’t seem to be going down without a fight.

Also Pete Hoekstra is the guy that lost by 20 points in 2012.

The state was far bluer back then and Obama carried Michigan by a large margin in 2012. Also Hoekstra isn't great, but a lukewarm boring guy is still a major upgrade for the party than Karamo.

[Tekken_Guy]

Wisconsin will of three rust belt be best for Trump.  Heck I would not be surprised if Trump does worse in Arizona and Georgia than Wisconsin regardless of which way they go.  On surface Michigan is probably marginally better than Pennsylvania as others have explained, but I still think he does slightly better in Pennsylvania due to ground organization.  Michigan GOP is an absolute mess, sort of like Democrats in Ohio and Florida so much like in midterms GOP probably underperforms polls in Michigan whereas in Pennsylvania likely gets about what polls say. 

MI GOP might be turning things around, it looks like they ousted the crazy lady from the chair position, and their senate field seems to have decent candidates compared to the clown show they put up in 2022.

It might be too late at this point and Karamo doesn’t seem to be going down without a fight.

Also Pete Hoekstra is the guy that lost by 20 points in 2012.

The state was far bluer back then and Obama carried Michigan by a large margin in 2012. Also Hoekstra isn't great, but a lukewarm boring guy is still a major upgrade for the party than Karamo.

Whether or not he’s better than Ron Weiser or Laura Cox is a different story entirely.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hot-take, apparently: Pennsylvania. As was the case in 2016 and 2020.

[Mr. Smith]

Michigan, for the first time since 1988 [maybe '96?].

[Tekken_Guy]

Michigan, for the first time since 1988 [maybe '96?].

Can you explain?