How close will the election be?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  How close will the election be?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: How close will the election be?
#1
Decisive Biden win		  
#2
Close Biden win		  
#3
Close Trump win		  
#4
Decisive Trump win		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 51

Author Topic: How close will the election be?  (Read 907 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: February 01, 2024, 07:47:53 PM »
How close will the 2024 election actually be?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2024, 07:49:34 PM »
Narrow Trump win in the popular vote, decisive Trump win in the Electoral College. Voted decisive.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2024, 07:56:53 PM »
No idea whether Trump or Biden will win, it'll be extremely close either way. The tipping point state will be decided by under a point.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2024, 08:05:37 PM »
Biden wins the popular vote by 3 and replicates the 2020 map.

How close or decisive it is might be up to your interpretation and what margin the states are determined by.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2024, 08:13:00 PM »
depends on how you define “close”. I would say 2000/04 are examples of “narrow” or “close” bc it came down to one state deciding the entire thing. Whereas in the last four, it didn’t come down to just one, so I say decisive Biden W Bc I don’t expect this election to ride on one states results. 319/219 is my prediction that I’m sticking with. Biden 2020 + NC.

Texas is the closest Trump state. Approx 2% win by Trump
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seskoog
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2024, 08:19:12 PM »
In terms of likelihood: Close Biden Win > Close Trump Win > Decisive Biden Win > Decisive Trump Win
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2024, 08:36:04 PM »
Quote from: seskoog on February 01, 2024, 08:19:12 PM
In terms of likelihood: Close Biden Win > Close Trump Win > Decisive Biden Win > Decisive Trump Win

I think that's the fairest assessment I've seen lately.
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BG-NY (permanently retired)
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« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2024, 08:50:20 PM »
Trump by a mid-sized margin.

That said, the PA polls are a head-scratcher.
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JGibson
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« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2024, 09:03:15 PM »
Close Biden win for me.
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It's Time.
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« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2024, 09:08:38 PM »
Biden has the worst approval ratings of any incumbent in modern political history. America has an illegal migrant crisis going on. Most Americans see Biden as too old and incompetent. Inflation has wrecked consumer habits. Trump is obliterating Biden in most national polls and has EC advantage. Israel-Palestine will neuter his youth and minority turnout.

I'm going with a decisive Trump win.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2024, 09:34:17 PM »
I mean, if you’re looking at the data, saying anything other than a decisive Trump win is just wishful thinking. Now I concede a lot can change, but all signs point to Trump by a lot.
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MarkD
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« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2024, 11:18:53 PM »
Quote from: seskoog on February 01, 2024, 08:19:12 PM
In terms of likelihood: Close Biden Win > Close Trump Win > Decisive Biden Win > Decisive Trump Win
^^^
Agreed.
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dw93
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« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2024, 11:23:29 PM »


Narrow Biden win.
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7,052,770
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« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2024, 12:34:45 AM »
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on February 01, 2024, 09:34:17 PM
I mean, if you’re looking at the data, saying anything other than a decisive Trump win is just wishful thinking. Now I concede a lot can change, but all signs point to Trump by a lot.

All signs? I'd say economic indicators and special/general election results point more toward Biden.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2024, 01:02:08 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2024, 05:08:46 AM by Progressive Pessimist »
Quote from: 7,052,770 on February 02, 2024, 12:34:45 AM
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on February 01, 2024, 09:34:17 PM
I mean, if you’re looking at the data, saying anything other than a decisive Trump win is just wishful thinking. Now I concede a lot can change, but all signs point to Trump by a lot.

All signs? I'd say economic indicators and special/general election results point more toward Biden.

Indeed, we have yet to see Americans take their unpopular opinions about Biden to the ballot box, since 2021 at least.

Sure, it may be different with Biden directly on the ballot, but history has previously indicated an incumbent President usually being a drag on their party in important, or close, elections.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #15 on: February 02, 2024, 01:04:19 AM »
Biden wins the popular vote by 2, Trump wins the electoral college with 2020 + GA + WI + MI.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2024, 01:21:46 AM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on February 02, 2024, 01:04:19 AM
Biden wins the popular vote by 2, Trump wins the electoral college with 2020 + GA + WI + MI.

You don’t think he wins PA?
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2024, 01:25:13 AM »
Quote from: dw93 on February 01, 2024, 11:23:29 PM


Narrow Biden win.

NV and AZ aren't Lean R
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Wrong about 2024 Ghost
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« Reply #18 on: February 02, 2024, 04:23:42 PM »
« Edited: February 02, 2024, 06:57:20 PM by Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin »
It's going to come down to turnout. If it is high across the board  - which I think it will be  - I think we get a decisive Biden win. I just can't see any other outcome IF there's high turnout - too many Americans, including a large majority of women and a small but significant minority of former Republicans, will not accept a 2nd term for the liar, rapist, and traitor known as Donald Trump, leader of the Republican Party.

If we don't get that high turnout, I don't know, but it will not be good.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #19 on: February 03, 2024, 09:08:06 PM »
I predict that the electoral map is the same from 2020, except for Georgia. I also belive that Biden wins the popular vote by a slightly a smaller margin from the 4.45% margin he had over Trump the first time (maybe 3.95% or something similar to that).

So close Biden victory.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: February 04, 2024, 09:27:11 AM »
It's a 303 map I don't know where Polls are getting Trump +5
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