What will be the consensus on November 5

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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion

2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)

What will be the consensus on November 5

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Poll

Question:

#1 Large Biden Win		1 (4.5%)
#2 Moderate Biden Win		2 (9.1%)
#3 Narrow Biden Win		6 (27.3%)
#4 Pure Tossup		5 (22.7%)
#5 Narrow Trump Win		2 (9.1%)
#6 Moderate Trump Win		4 (18.2%)
#7 Large Trump Win		2 (9.1%)

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Partisan results

Total Voters: 22

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Topic: What will be the consensus on November 5 (Read 312 times)

Mr. Third-Wayist
Liam
Junior Chimp

Posts: 7,138

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What will be the consensus on November 5

« on: February 01, 2024, 06:33:03 PM »

?

Not who you think is gonna win just what you think the general consensus/mood will be on Nov 5

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mileslunn
Junior Chimp

Posts: 5,838

Re: What will be the consensus on November 5

« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2024, 07:18:34 PM »

Way too early to say. That being said right now huge problem is lots of possibilities.

1. Trump is clearly ahead even if by only a point or two but thanks to electoral college system, he can lose popular vote and still win so if polling lead stays where is, he would be heavily favored to win

2. Almost every poll shows him below 50% and most show him at or below the 47% he got in 2020. Biden is lower not because Biden voters moving to Trump but rather many moving to undecided column. If they return to Biden he wins but again won't until around August have any idea if happening or not.

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