Will any states be decided by fewer than 10,000 votes?

[Consuming is good, it's what we're made for]

In 2020, the closest state by vote total was Arizona, which was decided by a margin of 10,457 votes. Georgia was decided by just shy of 12,000 votes. Will any states be decided by a smaller margin in November?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Probably, unfortunately.

[It's Time.]

I think it's possible. The only solidly decided elections this century were the 2 Obama ones (tipping point state in both was CO, over 5% MOV for Obama both times). Every other election has been down to the wire

-2000: 537 votes in Florida
-2004: 118k votes in Ohio
-2016: <80k votes across 3 rust belt states
-2020: <45k votes across WI, GA, AZ

I think 2024 will be similar in terms of state-by-state swings as 2020: small, under-the-hood changes mostly, but no huge, realigning shifts, which makes sense as it is a redux of 2020 in terms of candidates. Whether those shifts benefit Trump or Biden remains to be seen...

[TodayJunior]

Hot take: Alaska

[mileslunn]

Hard to say but I think just when you consider states that could be within 10K there is a very real chance.  Actually due to its size, I think probably most likely one is Nevada as its small enough than 10k is over 0.5% difference

[Dave Hedgehog]

I don’t think so. I have a gut feeling that Biden is either going to collapse in some of the 2020 swing states or end up carrying them by a somewhat more comfortable margin (at least more comfortable than 10k votes).

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Hot take: Alaska

Definitely a hot take; that would be about 3%, so not “extremely” close percentage-wise. Something weird would have to be going on up there to tank Trump’s numbers though. Like RFK Jr doing oddly well there. Granted, it was Nader’s best state, so it’s not like it doesn’t have a history of being odd at times.