What is more likely? Biden+6 (Quinnipiac) or Trump+4 (CNN) PV

[Tekken_Guy]

What popular vote margin is more likely? Biden+6 like Quinnipiac or Trump+4 like CNN?

[7,052,770]

I think it's easier to imagine a scenario where Biden does 1.5 points better than he did in 2020, compared to one where Trump does 8.5 points better than 2020, and even that is without taking into account that nearly 1% of Trump's 2020 voters needlessly died from COVID after the vaccine was available.

Sorry for going against the grain here and daring to defy the consensus. Please have mercy on my soul.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think it's easier to imagine a scenario where Biden does 1.5 points better than he did in 2020, compared to one where Trump does 8.5 points better than 2020, and even that is without taking into account that nearly 1% of Trump's 2020 voters needlessly died from COVID after the vaccine was available.

Sorry for going against the grain here and daring to defy the consensus. Please have mercy on my soul.

Not to mention Trump +4 would be the best Republican PV result since 1988. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden+6, which won't happen either.

Trump is not coming close to winning the popular vote.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Neither will happen but Biden +6 is a little closer to what I think will happen so that one.

[mileslunn]

Neither is likely but Biden +6 probably closer than Trump +4.  Only way Trump wins by four points is if strong third party candidate.  Biden +6 won't happen as Obama won by +7 in 2008 and that was a wave election so Democrats aren't getting that anytime soon or would need circumstances just as favorable which is not happening this time around.

[The Mamdani Virus]

I don't think Trump has any hope of winning the popular vote, unless he is acquitted in the trials. I know all the polls show and the polls have always underestimated him, but the math just doesn't add up. I'm sorry I don't believe 10 pt Republican shifts in CA/TX/NY which would be needed to make it happen. This isn't to say he can't win or even win decisively (I would argue he is currently favored), it's just hard for the math for a PV win to add up unless Biden totally collapses with reliable D demographics. I suppose this can actually happen if Biden remains unpopular and Trump being cleared of his legal troubles can present himself as a credible change candidate, but I don't see him making the inroads needed if the legal troubles persist as they should give enough pause to voters to at least deliver the PV to Biden.

[SnowLabrador]

Trump +4, simply because it's closer to what the other polls say.

[seskoog]

Biden+6, which is possible, although the mean result is Biden+3-4. No chance Trump wins the PV by 4.

[MarkD]

Biden by +6, and I am going to go against the grain here and say that it IS possible it can happen.

[heatcharger]

I think it's easier to imagine a scenario where Biden does 1.5 points better than he did in 2020, compared to one where Trump does 8.5 points better than 2020, and even that is without taking into account that nearly 1% of Trump's 2020 voters needlessly died from COVID after the vaccine was available.

Sorry for going against the grain here and daring to defy the consensus. Please have mercy on my soul.

Must’ve felt brave huh?

[7,052,770]

I think it's easier to imagine a scenario where Biden does 1.5 points better than he did in 2020, compared to one where Trump does 8.5 points better than 2020, and even that is without taking into account that nearly 1% of Trump's 2020 voters needlessly died from COVID after the vaccine was available.

Sorry for going against the grain here and daring to defy the consensus. Please have mercy on my soul.

Must’ve felt brave huh?

When I made the post, the count was 5-2 in favor of Trump. I guess I made the difference. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden +6 due to fact Biden is at 45/53 Approvals

[heatcharger]

I think it's easier to imagine a scenario where Biden does 1.5 points better than he did in 2020, compared to one where Trump does 8.5 points better than 2020, and even that is without taking into account that nearly 1% of Trump's 2020 voters needlessly died from COVID after the vaccine was available.

Sorry for going against the grain here and daring to defy the consensus. Please have mercy on my soul.

Must’ve felt brave huh?

When I made the post, the count was 5-2 in favor of Trump. I guess I made the difference. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sure. The forum overwhelmingly believes an 8 point polling miss in favor of Biden is more likely than a 2 point polling miss in favor of TRUMP.

Let's keep that in mind moving forward.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

You cannot convince me Trump will perform better than he ever has after all the things that have gone on over the last 3 years with him. If he actually does, this country is doomed.

[7,052,770]

I think it's easier to imagine a scenario where Biden does 1.5 points better than he did in 2020, compared to one where Trump does 8.5 points better than 2020, and even that is without taking into account that nearly 1% of Trump's 2020 voters needlessly died from COVID after the vaccine was available.

Sorry for going against the grain here and daring to defy the consensus. Please have mercy on my soul.

Must’ve felt brave huh?

When I made the post, the count was 5-2 in favor of Trump. I guess I made the difference. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sure. The forum overwhelmingly believes an 8 point polling miss in favor of Biden is more likely than a 2 point polling miss in favor of TRUMP.

Let's keep that in mind moving forward.

There's no such thing as a "polling miss" on January numbers.

[Santander]

You cannot convince me Trump will perform better than he ever has after all the things that have gone on over the last 3 years with him. If he actually does, this country is doomed.

Trump is more popular than ever after people realize what a mistake the last 3 years have been.

[heatcharger]

You cannot convince me Trump will perform better than he ever has after all the things that have gone on over the last 3 years with him. If he actually does, this country is doomed.

Bro, is Biden even the president in your world?

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

You cannot convince me Trump will perform better than he ever has after all the things that have gone on over the last 3 years with him. If he actually does, this country is doomed.

Bro, is Biden even the president in your world?

I think he was talking about Trump personally (his indictments, possible conviction, poor performances from Trump endorsed candidates etc etc)