Will Trump get over 40% amongst 18-29 year olds?

[mileslunn]

Last time GOP got above 40% amongst 18-29 year olds was 2004.  Since 2004, GOP has been stuck in 30s.  A big reason is Gen X was much more favorable to GOP than Millennials and now Gen Z.  While I don't think either two is more favorable to GOP, Biden is quite unpopular so I could see millennial and Gen Z turnout being very low and minority who are Republican being more likely to show up than majority who are Democrat. 

[Arizona Iced Tea]

There is a huge misconception on Atlas that assumes almost all young voters are college students. While a lot are, there is a significant amount of young voters out there who don't attend college and aren't as liberal. The group I'm keeping an eye out on are non-college minority men which could very well play a part in Trump's success if he were to win.

[mileslunn]

There is a huge misconception on Atlas that assumes almost all young voters are college students. While a lot are, there is a significant amount of young voters out there who don't attend college and aren't as liberal. The group I'm keeping an eye out on are non-college minority men which could very well play a part in Trump's success if he were to win.

While different country, in Canada where I live, Poilievre is leading amongst millennials but partly due to vote splits nonetheless they asked Canadians how they would vote if they could in US and Trump did best amongst millennials.  Almost half of millennial males in Canada would vote for Trump if in US while amongst seniors was only 20%.  Off course different country but I could see Trump definitely doing well with millennial males without a college degree.  Millennial females pretty sure will go heavily for Biden as that cohort is I believe most liberal in US.  I think amongst minorities, more likely Hispanic millennials ones to watch.  May make some gains amongst Black millennials but it seems Black community pretty much always votes massively Democrat no matter what and while definitely possible some GOP leader finally breaks that; I would never bet much on any particular one doing so.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Last time GOP got above 40% amongst 18-29 year olds was 2004.  Since 2004, GOP has been stuck in 30s.  A big reason is Gen X was much more favorable to GOP than Millennials and now Gen Z.  While I don't think either two is more favorable to GOP, Biden is quite unpopular so I could see millennial and Gen Z turnout being very low and minority who are Republican being more likely to show up than majority who are Democrat. 

Actually polling seems to show that lower-turnout Gen Z are more Republican, so the higher Gen Z turnout is, the more Republican that demographic will be.

[mileslunn]

Last time GOP got above 40% amongst 18-29 year olds was 2004.  Since 2004, GOP has been stuck in 30s.  A big reason is Gen X was much more favorable to GOP than Millennials and now Gen Z.  While I don't think either two is more favorable to GOP, Biden is quite unpopular so I could see millennial and Gen Z turnout being very low and minority who are Republican being more likely to show up than majority who are Democrat. 

Actually polling seems to show that lower-turnout Gen Z are more Republican, so the higher Gen Z turnout is, the more Republican that demographic will be.

I have seen mixed on that although I believe gender divide for Gen Z is even larger than millennials.  I think male Gen Zers more Republican but female Gen Z voters the most Democrat of any generation.

[Annatar]

Yes, he got around 37% in 2020, getting to around 40 - 41%, a 3 - 4% gain in vote share should be doable fairly easily for him.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Imo very high 30s is likeliest.

[Vern]

He will end up getting around 38%-41%.

[DS0816]

Last time GOP got above 40% amongst 18-29 year olds was 2004.  Since 2004, GOP has been stuck in 30s.  A big reason is Gen X was much more favorable to GOP than Millennials and now Gen Z.  While I don't think either two is more favorable to GOP, Biden is quite unpopular so I could see millennial and Gen Z turnout being very low and minority who are Republican being more likely to show up than majority who are Democrat. 

According to Roper Center:

ELECTION 2020: VOTERS AGED 18–29
🔵 Joe Biden 60%
🔴 Donald Trump 36%
◾️ Margin: Democratic +24


Answer to this topic’s question: Yes!

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

If Trump got 36% in 2020, that means mean the new ones in that age bracket, so 18-22 year olds, would have to be significantly more Republican than those who aged out, the 26-29 year olds in 2020. That seems unlikely.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Trump got 36% in 2020, that means mean the new ones in that age bracket, so 18-22 year olds, would have to be significantly more Republican than those who aged out, the 26-29 year olds in 2020. That seems unlikely.

I don't think it's unlikely as people think (though I would still say Trump narrowly fails to get 40% of this age cohort). The big difference is the people currently aging into the electorate had widespread access to modern forms of social media like Instagram in their formative years. I made a thread explaining this a while back in political geography and demographics about how I thought socially media could be making the youngest age cohorts more likely to support populists strongman figures like Trump who appeal to their emotions over "boring" politicians like Biden.

Unfortunately, I think social media has made many young people see being a Biden/Trump supporter as an identity rather than actually caring about policies, and this dynamic works in a way that helps Trump on net imo.

[mileslunn]

I think definitely possible but doubt he gets as high as Bush did in 2000 and 2004 but big reason for that is then most 18-29 year olds were Gen X and Gen X is second most conservative generation (Silent generation who are rapidly dying off most conservative) even more so than boomers.  Millennials much more liberal and Gen Z so far similar.  At same time it does seem Trump has a fair bit of appeal to young males and I could see him running to close to even with them which could push it over 40%.  Amongst females 18-29, I suspect Trump probably gets around 1/3.

[Progressive Pessimist]

F*** no!

[SnowLabrador]

Probably, since we live in hell.

[Mr. Smith]

no.

[It's Time.]

He might, Joe Biden has alienated many young people. He is 81 years old. Most people of that age would be unfit for any job, let alone the most demanding job of them all. Ofc, Trump is only 4 years younger, but he has a much more brash and energetic personality which makes him feel more youthful.

I would argue Biden's approval rating would be much higher if he announced he would only be serving one term. It would make him look humble.

[The Mamdani Virus]

He got 36% in 2020, so this isn't that big of a stretch. He only lost the 25-29 cohort by 11 pts (54-43). Conservative young voters have just tended not to vote early and begin voting later in life, maybe that changes this time, but I'm skeptical any large number of Democratic-leaning 18-29s who actually vote (which narrows the pool significantly) will defect to Trump or stay home. Turnout among this group (especially the lower half of it) is infamously low, so it will likely only have an electoral ripple if it happens in any significant amount.

[Vosem]

If Trump got 36% in 2020, that means mean the new ones in that age bracket, so 18-22 year olds, would have to be significantly more Republican than those who aged out, the 26-29 year olds in 2020. That seems unlikely.

I agree with you that it's very unlikely, but I think it's imaginable just on account of turnout differences. 2020 had the highest turnout in 120 years, and since then consumption of political news has collapsed; turnout in 2024 will probably be much lower and it's easy to imagine those turning out skewing to those unhappy with the current government. (There are many arguments against this, like the 2022 result, and to be clear I don't really think it's what's happening. But it's a plausible story, such that in hindsight I don't think this happening would be incredibly surprising.)

[TodayJunior]

No way. Gen z is far more liberal than even the millennial generation. Considering Dobbs, T Swifti, and the improving economy, he’ll be lucky to get 35%

[Ferguson97]

I don't think so. As others have noted, Biden is losing support among 18–29-year-olds, but this is mostly from people who think that he's not far-left enough. These people will never vote for Trump. They'll be voting third-party, would just bring down Biden's % without bringing up Trump's %.