Will Trump beat Bush's 2004 showing amongst Hispanics?

[mileslunn]

In 2004, Bush got 44% amongst Hispanics and while I don't see Trump winning Hispanic vote outright, I do think Biden only winning by single digits and Trump breaking what Bush in 2004 got is certainly possible but wouldn't say likely.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No he won't, he does the Southern Strategy with tax cuts for the rich which takes away from Entitlements that Ronald Reagan passed it was different in 2016, WC whites supported tax cuts
 Not after the Pandemic


If you talk to Latinos and blk persons in blue not red states they call tax cuts Southern Strategy and Racism policy

Fly over country is NV, AZ, CO, NM they support tax increases make property taxes high, but in red country they support sales tax decrease and increase in Lottery sales

I travel between IL and CA AZ and NV are D states, this isn't 2004

Biden isn't doing worse than 2o because his Approvals in 20 weren't 60 it was near 50 that's why it was no landslide

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m skeptical Bush got 44% of the Hispanic vote in the first place. Especially at that time, most Hispanics lived in urban areas and those were voting hard against Bush - precinct level data in states like CA, PA, and TX would suggest something more akin to a 60-40 split at best for Bush.

[Redban]

https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2005/06/27/iv-how-latinos-voted-in-2004/

Bush’s percentage of Hispanics in 2004 is actually questionable.  NEP’s national exit poll showed 44%, which most media outlets reported. But further analysis suggested they oversampled Cuban-Americans and undersampled young Hispanics, women, urban Hispanics etc.  By aggregating exit polls conducted individually in all the 50 states and DC, they concluded that Bush got 40%. Pew Hispanic center later analyzed the state exit poll data and came to the same conclusion: nobody knows for sure what Bush exactly got with Hispanic voters, but 40% is more likely than 44%

In any event though - 40% would be a record, surpassing Reagan’s 37% in 1984. The 2022 midterms saw the republicans get 39% of Hispanics, which is second to only Bush 2004’s figure. So I think Trump has a shot of 36-42% with Hispanics, putting him within range of a new record

[mileslunn]

https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2005/06/27/iv-how-latinos-voted-in-2004/

Bush’s percentage of Hispanics in 2004 is actually questionable.  NEP’s national exit poll showed 44%, which most media outlets reported. But further analysis suggested they oversampled Cuban-Americans and undersampled young Hispanics, women, urban Hispanics etc.  By aggregating exit polls conducted individually in all the 50 states and DC, they concluded that Bush got 40%. Pew Hispanic center later analyzed the state exit poll data and came to the same conclusion: nobody knows for sure what Bush exactly got with Hispanic voters, but 40% is more likely than 44%

In any event though - 40% would be a record, surpassing Reagan’s 37% in 1984. The 2022 midterms saw the republicans get 39% of Hispanics, which is second to only Bush 2004’s figure. So I think Trump has a shot of 36-42% with Hispanics, putting him within range of a new record

Makes sense and yes I could see Trump getting around 40%.  Also looking at 2020, seems excluding Cubans saw a bit of the rural vs. urban divide as in Rio Grande Valley swings were biggest in rural counties while in urban ones also saw a swing towards Trump but not nearly as big.  So in Southwest I could see Trump coming close to even amongst Hispanics in rural areas but in urban areas remaining stuck in 20s.  I also think college divide is starting to show up much like with whites so could see amongst Hispanics without a college degree, Trump get in mid 40s but amongst Hispanics with a college degree struggle to hit 30%.  In many ways with Hispanics you are seeing similar divides you do with whites just not quite as wide or exact same numbers.   Urban vs. rural, college vs. non-college, male vs. female, religious vs. not religious etc.

[oldtimer]

Yeap it's possible.

The average poll has Hispanics only 46-40 .

[Progressive Pessimist]

No way!

He'll do relatively well, don't get me wrong, but 44% would be an absolutely seismic swing to him.

[SnowLabrador]

Yes.