Will Trump have best showing amongst African-Americans since 1964?

[mileslunn]

GOP has never gotten more than 13% of African-American vote since 1964 yet some polls suggest Trump may beat that.  I highly doubt he gets over 20%, but 15% while on high side I see as possible.  Still while 15% definitely possible for Black males, I suspect amongst Black females he gets in single digits.

[mileslunn]

Some polls have shown Trump at 25% amongst African-Americans which I don't believe for a minute.  I think better than even chance gets over 10%, but 13% stretching it and 15% is probably absolute maximum but even that I see as unlikely.  I think Trump getting over 15% of Black males very possible but amongst Black females I would be shocked if he gets in double digits.

[Red Willow]

I think there will be a massive gender gap. Trump's ceiling with black males is probably somewhere between 21-25% and he very may well hit the upper end of that. However I would be very surprised if he even gets over 10% with black females.

[DrScholl]

He won't. He is literally the most openly racist nominee the GOP has nominated since Goldwater so it's doubtful he gets anywhere near what the polls are saying.

[President Johnson]

I really doubt.

Maybe I'm too much into wishful thinking, but I really can't imagine what seriously would cause such a swing. What has Trump done to appeal more to them? Or most voters at all. He's even more insane than in 2020 and has multiple indictments. The economy is also further improving. If polarization wasn't so bad, this actually should be a landslide election.

[Redban]

The black vote is the only racial group that hasn’t trended Republican  in the last 3 elections since 2016. Asian, Hispanic, and white have showed some signs of moving right. But blacks have been stable:

2018:  92 D / 6R
2020: 92 D/ 8R
2022: 93 D / 5R

It would be nice to see a swing for Repubs. But I’m not sure.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

That's because we support blk reparations instead of 40K tax cuts and it doesn't cut jobs if you raise taxes. Floyd family got 33M

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really doubt it.

[TDAS04]

No, Trump is not going to outperform Gerald Ford's showing among African American voters.