Which county nets Trump the most votes in 2024?
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Which county nets Trump the most votes in 2024?
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Poll
Question: Largest Trump 2024 vote net County
#1
Montgomery, TX (Trump +119k in 2020)
 
#2
Utah, UT (Trump +117k)
 
#3
Ocean, NJ (Trump + 98k)
 
#4
Lee, FL (Trump + 76k)
 
#5
St. Tammy, LA (Trump + 62k)
 
#6
Pasco, FL (Trump + 61k)
 
#7
Horry, SC (Trump + 60k)
 
#8
Brevard, FL (Trump + 59k)
 
#9
Baldwin, AL (Trump + 59k)
 
#10
Westmoreland, PA (Trump + 58k)
 
#11
Cherokee, GA (Trump + 57k)
 
#12
Waukesha, WI (Trump + 56k)
 
#13
Mohave, AZ (Trump + 54k)
 
#14
Marion, FL (Trump + 53k)
 
#15
Collier, FL (Trump + 51k)
 
#16
Other (specify)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 21

Author Topic: Which county nets Trump the most votes in 2024?  (Read 410 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: January 31, 2024, 11:47:16 PM »

I believe these are all the counties that netted Trump over 50k votes in 2020.

Most of these counties are located in exurban communities and many have large retiree populations. While counties like Montgomery have generally been shifting left, the rapid growth until this point means Trump netted more votes than Romney out of the County, so growth is a factor to consider.

My guess would probably be Utah County; very fast growing -shifting left but slower than Montgomery, it's main rival.

Ocean County NJ is also a dark horse; a rightwards shift like we saw in 2021 combined with higher Pres turnout could make it net the most votes for Trump. It would be interesting if Trump's largest vote net was in a safe Biden state.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2024, 11:55:21 PM »

Montgomery for net as largest that GOP still tops 70%.  Not in total votes, it will be Los Angeles County hands down for simple reason by far the largest.
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🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2024, 12:11:13 AM »

Why wouldn't it be Montgomery TX again?

If Utah UT had very high turnout, it might be ahead, but it's unlikely.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2024, 12:47:02 AM »

Why wouldn't it be Montgomery TX again?

If Utah UT had very high turnout, it might be ahead, but it's unlikely.

Because Montgomery seems to be getting to a place where the leftward shift will start cutting into GOP margins faster than growth can help. Also + 119k isn’t much more than + 117k.
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oldtimer
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2024, 02:37:58 PM »

Suffolk in New York should be on the list.
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Smash255
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2024, 04:50:21 PM »

Suffolk in New York should be on the list.

This list shows counties Trump won by 50,000 or more in 2020.   Trump literally won Suffolk by 232 votes.  Even if Long Island continues its rightward trend that we saw in 2022 and 2023, there is no way in hell it is even close to his largest margin.
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oldtimer
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2024, 02:33:07 PM »

Suffolk in New York should be on the list.

This list shows counties Trump won by 50,000 or more in 2020.   Trump literally won Suffolk by 232 votes.  Even if Long Island continues its rightward trend that we saw in 2022 and 2023, there is no way in hell it is even close to his largest margin.

Zeldin won it by 95k.

Trump could win it with over 100k just by higher turnout with same margins.
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