Rate NM-02nd (Trump vs Biden)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Rate NM-02nd (Trump vs Biden)		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Your rating?
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Tilt R		  
#5
Tilt D		  
#6
Lean D		  
#7
Likely D		  
#8
Safe D		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 7

Author Topic: Rate NM-02nd (Trump vs Biden)  (Read 293 times)
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,666


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E: 1.48, S: 1.30

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« on: January 31, 2024, 08:34:50 PM »
Who wins the new district boundaries?
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,134
United States


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E: -8.65, S: -6.26

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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2024, 06:20:31 AM »
Trump based on the crosstabs we're seeing. Ronchetti underperformed expectations and still won the district, even without getting the hispanic numbers we are seeing with Trump
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ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
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« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2024, 11:33:24 AM »
Lean Biden.

Worth noting the district only swung 0.1% right from 2016 to 2020 despite Biden's Hispanic losses in the district. Think he does worse than 2020, but not enough to lose it - maybe around Biden + 3.

Also while Ronchetti did carry it in 2022 Gov, that was a race where he was a decently strong candidate running against MLG who had some problems. Midterm Hispanic turnout was also bad. Even then it was only a narrow 1% loss, and the D House candidate still flipped the seat against an incumbent R despite little investment. I don't think we should take that as a sign Trump is favored to flip the seat.
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Fusternino
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« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2024, 11:59:43 AM »
Wasn't this district a stealth gerrymander? Tough to say using 2016-2022 data . . .
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