What state will Trump win by more, Florida or Texas?

[Tekken_Guy]

What state will Trump win by a larger margin?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida, and I'm decently confident in it.

I'd argue it'd be pretty difficult for FL to vote to the left of TX. Most of the problems that would hurt Biden in Texas (i.e. low non-white turnout, Hispanics shifting right, ect), would hurt him harder in Florida. On the flip side, Texas has a ton of liabilities for Trump that Florida just doesn't have - fast growing metros with D-favorable migration, hyper-liberal Austin, ect.

The only way I could see FL voting to the left of TX is if we do actually see significant age depolarization allowing Biden to do well in many of FL's senior communities, and/or if Biden gets some sort of incumbent bump cubans (which seems unlikely).

[DS0816]

What state will Trump win by a larger margin?

Florida … with both percentage-point and raw-vote margins.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida by 9, Texas by 5.

[Cyrusman]

They'll be close, but I'll say Texas.

Predicating Trump +8-10 range in Texas and +6-7 range in Florida.

[🥥🌴]

Going for Texas, but only narrowly.

[mileslunn]

Florida as it is trending right while Texas left but probably only 2 point difference and Trump wins both.  Of 25 states Biden won, all will vote to left of both states as will North Carolina, but Texas will be next followed by Florida and then Ohio.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Texas. Democrats don't want to accept that DeSantis was simply very popular at the time of his landslide. If a snap election were held today he'd be lucky to win by more than 10.

[Samof94]

Florida, and I'm decently confident in it.

I'd argue it'd be pretty difficult for FL to vote to the left of TX. Most of the problems that would hurt Biden in Texas (i.e. low non-white turnout, Hispanics shifting right, ect), would hurt him harder in Florida. On the flip side, Texas has a ton of liabilities for Trump that Florida just doesn't have - fast growing metros with D-favorable migration, hyper-liberal Austin, ect.

The only way I could see FL voting to the left of TX is if we do actually see significant age depolarization allowing Biden to do well in many of FL's senior communities, and/or if Biden gets some sort of incumbent bump cubans (which seems unlikely).

Florida also seems to appeal to R domestic migrants more than Texas(especially on the east coast).

[Vern]

Texas for sure. He will win TX by +10-12, FL +6-8

[DS0816]

Texas for sure. He will win TX by +10-12, FL +6-8

No.

In 2020, Texas was R+5.58.

Florida was +3.35.

Texas was the Republicans’s No. 23 (the Democrats’s No. 28) best state.

Florida was the Republicans’s No. 24 (the Democrats’s No. 27) best state.

I suspect, here in 2024, they will switch slots for where they will rank.

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President, with a U.S. Popular Vote of R+3, the 2020-to-2024 margins in both states will notably increase.

I can imagine North Carolina, the 2020 Republicans’s No. 25 (the 2020 Democrats’s No. 26) best state, coming in at R+9.

This would mean Texas hits at least R+10.

Florida hits at least R+11.

A number of states are going to shift +4.46 percentage points, or better, to enable a 2024 Republican pickup for the U.S. Popular Vote with a margin of at least +0.01.

It is very difficult to make a case for a 2024 Republican pickup for the U.S. Popular Vote, along with U.S. President, and not move the numbers sufficiently.

The reason why I think R+3, for the U.S. Popular Vote, is because that whole-number estimate is what would yield 31 carried states.

[Sir Mohamed]

Definitely FL. I expect him to win it by something in the 8-12 pts. range. TX will be in the 4-7 pts. range.