Why 2024 is more like 2016 than 2020

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't mean that Trump will win with this analogy but more so the fundamentals of the race align more with 2016.

Both Clinton and Trump were massively disliked among most Americans and it was an unpopularity contest between the two. Many Republicans disliked Trump, while progressives were not fans of Clinton causing a high 3rd party share, and neither candidate cracking 50%. Policy was the major driver of this race with immigration and trade ultimately delivering it to Trump.

While 2020 was Biden vs Trump, the circumstances were very different. For lack of a better word, 2020 was less of an unpopularity contest but more so a polarized referendum on Trump. Unlike 2016, Republicans unified behind Trump in favor of him, and everyone else came in support of Biden as the anti-Trump candidate. There was a significant lack of policy discussion unlike the previous one, as it became focused on just one man. It wasn't an election between two individuals but rather just a verdict on Trump himself.

This is where 2024 comes in play. Unlike 2020, both sides have reservations on the rematch, with a lot of Republicans no longer fans of Trump compared to 4 years prior. Meanwhile on the Dem side, Biden will easily cruise to renomination, but concerns about his age, policy positions, and especially Israel-Gaza alienating many liberal voters. Expect policy to become a much bigger part of discussion with immigration, the economy, foreign policy, and abortion all being fought over. Additionally, akin to 2016 Trump and Biden are hated by most Americans the same way Clinton and Trump were with even the R and D base not being as enthused over their candidate as 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

I agree wholeheartedly with this, but the margin will look more like 1980 than 2016.

[Crumpets]

2020 was sui generis in so many ways. Unless we have, like, an actual zombie outbreak ahead of some future election, it seems pretty futile to use it as a baseline as far as "fundamentals" go.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I agree wholeheartedly with this, but the margin will look more like 1980 than 2016.

Could you be more annoying?

[SnowLabrador]

I agree wholeheartedly with this, but the margin will look more like 1980 than 2016.

Could you be more annoying?

It's okay to disagree with me, but tell me why you disagree.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe a reverse 2016 where Trump is Clinton.

[Skill and Chance]

2020 was sui generis in so many ways. Unless we have, like, an actual zombie outbreak ahead of some future election, it seems pretty futile to use it as a baseline as far as "fundamentals" go.

This.  2020 looked like a unique crisis.  2016 and 2024 look like normal times.  And Trump's showman/marketing personality is inherently better suited to normal times. 

[Skill and Chance]

Mostly agree with this.  However, this points to a close election with a narrow Trump advantage.  I still can't square the "Republican 2008" polls coming out recently with Trump up 5-10 in nearly every competitive state with the economic facts on the ground.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

2024 will be more like 1984. Biden is Reagan in reverse, which is exactly what most people want.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I agree wholeheartedly with this, but the margin will look more like 1980 than 2016.

Could you be more annoying?

It's okay to disagree with me, but tell me why you disagree.

It's not so much that I disagree with any particular take.  It's that, no matter the circumstance, you ALWAYS concern troll over Dems.  Always.  Every single time.  You were literally saying that Boebert on the ticket could help the GOP carry Colorado.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Mostly agree with this.  However, this points to a close election with a narrow Trump advantage.  I still can't square the "Republican 2008" polls coming out recently with Trump up 5-10 in nearly every competitive state with the economic facts on the ground.

The “economic facts on the ground” disregard people’s lived experience.

[Skill and Chance]

Mostly agree with this.  However, this points to a close election with a narrow Trump advantage.  I still can't square the "Republican 2008" polls coming out recently with Trump up 5-10 in nearly every competitive state with the economic facts on the ground.

The “economic facts on the ground” disregard people’s lived experience.

I somewhat agree.  But I would describe the state of the economy as neither wonderful nor awful enough to be consistent with 2008/1980/1932 style election results.  Essentially, we had 2020, the worst year since 1945, randomly dropped into a long sequence of normal and relatively boring times over the past decade.  We happened to have a presidential election in the crazy year.  2024 feels like restoring the natural order of things.  Trump almost surely would have gotten a 2nd term without COVID, so now he gets one after COVID. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s like neither 2016 nor 2020

[Art Vance Furniture]

It’s like neither 2016 nor 2020

It’s 2004.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I agree with a lot of your points, but I really don't like trying to match up past elections with current elections - you're dealing with such a small sample size n when every cycle has incredibly unique dynamics. Even if many things appear to be the same, other dynamics being different can have a huge impacts. Some things being the same as 2016 doesn't mean a 2016 repeat electorally.

I think a few major differences:

-Whether fairly or not, people have generally seem to view Trump as less racist than 2016; Trump will almost certainly do better with non-whites than he did in 2016.
-Biden is the incumbent and a known quantity. Hillary was not, even if many associated her with Obama.
-Many states demographics have changed quite a bit over 8 years. Even if 2024 was simillar on persuasion, decent chance the outcome may be different.

[Ferguson97]

Trump's biggest problem is that he no longer possesses the greatest advantage that he had in 2016 - he was an unknown quantity. "President Donald Trump" could mean anything from Governor Schwarzenegger to The Fourth Reich. Trump was sort of like a Rorschach blot, in that you saw what you wanted to see.

But "President Donald Trump" is no longer an abstract concept, it was something that everyone lived through for four years.

[Pericles]

Both elections were decided by less than a point. Surely an election could be like 2020 but a Trump win or like 2016 and a Biden win?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would say it is 1980 except the Republicans have nominated Richard Nixon rather than Ronald Reagan.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't getting reelected with J6 with that QU poll, you don't see Redban anywhere after that poll, and it's for the Filibuster proof Trifecta

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump's biggest problem is that he no longer possesses the greatest advantage that he had in 2016 - he was an unknown quantity. "President Donald Trump" could mean anything from Governor Schwarzenegger to The Fourth Reich. Trump was sort of like a Rorschach blot, in that you saw what you wanted to see.

But "President Donald Trump" is no longer an abstract concept, it was something that everyone lived through for four years.

You're not wrong, though there's a fair number of people who believe that they were better off economically under Trump than under Biden. At least they're using 2019 as a standard and not 2020/21, when Trump left office and totally bungled the pandemic response. That comes on top of the immigration issue, which some voters believe is even worse than the situation in 2016. Biden needs to take that seriously. Sure, it's nonsense to assume prices will go down to 2019 levels once Trump is back in office. It's actually more likely he brings back inflation by imposing massive tariffs on China and even Europe.

In the end, most people often vote their pocket books. They would prefer an erratic, scandal plagued wannabe authoritarian as long as the economy is better (in their feelings) instead of a calm prez under whom the economy is supposedly bad.

[It's Time.]

Mostly agree with this.  However, this points to a close election with a narrow Trump advantage.  I still can't square the "Republican 2008" polls coming out recently with Trump up 5-10 in nearly every competitive state with the economic facts on the ground.

Americans don't think the economy is doing good at all. Only 28% say the economy is doing good or excellent

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/americans-more-upbeat-on-the-economy-bidens-job-rating-remains-very-low/

Inflation wrecked consumer habits. Hard for people to approve of Biden's job on the economy when everything is so expensive.

[cg41386]

And Trump's showman/marketing personality is inherently better suited to normal times.

Problem is that so many people are sick of it.