Will Eagle Pass TX (Maverick County) swing Dem?

[Banana Republican]

2016:
Clinton 76.52%
Trump 20.72%

2020:
Biden 54.29%
Trump 44.84%

It swung big towards Trump in 2020, along with other more rural/smaller town areas of the border.

However, locals appear to be unhappy with Republican antics and grandstanding using their town as a prop:

The Residents of Eagle Pass, Texas, Just Want Their Town Back

In other words, it’s a heated national-level dispute that has escalated into a referendum on states’ rights, with implications for the presidential election. But for locals, it’s a matter of getting their park back.

Before Shelby Park was seized by the state, it was the site of regular community events, such as pickup soccer matches and Little League games. Every spring, the city holds an event called Noches Mexicanas, a public festival with live music, food, and local vendors, at the park. Eagle Pass is set to be in the path of totality for the April 8 total solar eclipse, and the city plans to host a Latin and country music festival to mark the occasion, with Shelby Park serving as parking for the event. According to Garcia, Shelby Park’s parking lot—now fenced off—used to serve the flea market by Main Street every Monday and Friday. That flea market, which Garcia said included as many as 80 to 100 vendors, has essentially collapsed amid the standoff. “Some people, that’s where their living is,” he said.

He noted that the conversion of Shelby Park into a kind of conflict zone is scaring off people from visiting the downtown area. “Anytime there’s something going on down there, people are afraid to go across,” he said of the pedestrian bridge across the river. “The downtown area is suffering.”

...

“I voted for Abbott; I think he’s been good for Texas,” Garcia said. “But to tell somebody ‘We’re taking over’ and not giving a good reason—you feel slapped silly. Nobody here is happy with what they did, because of the way they did it.”

Since the park was taken, the public has been allowed in only sparingly. (Mostly, it’s to use the golf course adjacent to the park.) A group that included Garcia was permitted in to put up a memorial to the migrants who drowned in the river. Reporters have been allowed in to take a look. But there have been no more people coming in to play soccer or fish or kayak in the town’s only public river access point.

And that’s been particularly tough for Jessie Fuentes, the town’s only river outfitter, who provides canoes and kayaks for recreation on the Rio Grande. Fuentes, who has lived in Eagle Pass his whole life, grew up with the river and sees it as essential to the community’s culture. Losing Shelby Park and its river access has been hard for him.

“Now the only people I’m putting in are journalists and professors and individuals that want to see the utter destruction,” he said. “What’s been happening has really shut me down.”

...

For people like Fuentes, it’s hard not to see these inspections as political theater; with his severe overreaction, Abbott seems hellbent on trying to emasculate the Biden administration by casting doubts on the efficacy of the federal Border Patrol. “There’s a [state] trooper every 2 or 3 miles, and it’s 95 miles to get to the interstate,” Fuentes said. “There was even a trooper in my alley, in front of my house. I laugh about it, but I know it’s affecting our economy.”

Even Garcia, an Abbott supporter who voted for Trump, feels that the state is going about things in too heavy-handed a way. “Abbott created a hardship for us,” he said.

...

Residents of Eagle Pass are used to hearing politicians use their city to make a point. Fuentes, the river outfitter, recalled when House Speaker Mike Johnson brought a delegation of 60 House Republicans on Jan. 3. “It’s all these people who come for a photo-op and leave,” he said. “They don’t visit hospitals or schools. They get in a boat, ride around for a bit, take some pictures, and they’re gone. And they’ve got their photo in front of the border. But what about the locals, man? We’re tired.

“Outsiders are coming into our community and taking over everything,” he added, “and we can’t do a dang thing about it.”

[heatcharger]

Obvious TRUMP flip.

[Banana Republican]

Obvious TRUMP flip.

You appear to be ignoring or not even reading the contents of the article linked. They sound like happy Biden'20-Trump'24 convert voters to you? lol

[heatcharger]

Obvious TRUMP flip.

You appear to be ignoring or not even reading the contents of the article linked. They sound like happy Biden'20-Trump'24 convert voters to you? lol

Yes. Open Borders Joe is despised in this part of the country.

[kwabbit]

Uvalde swung right from 2020 pres to 2022 gov. For every person Slate managed to get to criticize Abbott, there might be 5 who believe that there's a crisis at the border and welcome what Abbott is doing. Immigration is very salient nationwide and obviously even more salient in a border community, and Biden has horrendous approvals concerning immigration.

[DrScholl]

Never underestimate how government disrupting everyday life could be a factor in the area that is effected. Nobody wants their town being overrun by strangers.

[Banana Republican]

Uvalde swung right from 2020 pres to 2022 gov. For every person Slate managed to get to criticize Abbott, there might be 5 who believe that there's a crisis at the border and welcome what Abbott is doing. Immigration is very salient nationwide and obviously even more salient in a border community, and Biden has horrendous approvals concerning immigration.

It is absolutely salient in border communities like Eagle Pass, but it is salient in a very different way there than it is in other areas of the country. In other areas, much of its salience is just "brown people bad, make brown people stop, I see brown person me no like."

Whereas in Eagle Pass, virtually everyone is Hispanic and their concern is with the actual practical issues and their real practical effects on daily life in the area (not grandstanding). They are also economically reliant on trade with Mexico and do not want that to be disrupted in a way that is harmful to their livelihoods.

So, they are more likely than people in other areas of the country to be aware of the fact that Republicans have now said they do not want to actually do anything legislatively about border because they want it to be a problem so that they can campaign about it. And they are more likely to view that negatively. They want the practical policy, not the messaging.

[kwabbit]

Uvalde swung right from 2020 pres to 2022 gov. For every person Slate managed to get to criticize Abbott, there might be 5 who believe that there's a crisis at the border and welcome what Abbott is doing. Immigration is very salient nationwide and obviously even more salient in a border community, and Biden has horrendous approvals concerning immigration.

It is absolutely salient in border communities like Eagle Pass, but it is salient in a very different way there than it is in other areas of the country. In other areas, much of its salience is just "brown people bad, make brown people stop, I see brown person me no like."

Whereas in Eagle Pass, virtually everyone is Hispanic and their concern is with the actual practical issues and their real practical effects on daily life in the area (not grandstanding). They are also economically reliant on trade with Mexico and do not want that to be disrupted in a way that is harmful to their livelihoods.

So, they are more likely than people in other areas of the country to be aware of the fact that Republicans have now said they do not want to actually do anything legislatively about border because they want it to be a problem so that they can campaign about it. And they are more likely to view that negatively. They want the practical policy, not the messaging.

They won’t be racist against Hispanics in general but they certainly could be against Central Americans or South Americans if they are Tejano or Mexican. It’s pretty hard to say that border areas that massively swung to Trump want nuance and practical policy. I have no doubt that immigration is a losing issue to Democrats everywhere. If Biden gains at the border it’ll be from the much talked about incumbency effects.

[Banana Republican]

They won’t be racist against Hispanics in general but they certainly could be against Central Americans or South Americans if they are Tejano or Mexican. It’s pretty hard to say that border areas that massively swung to Trump want nuance and practical policy. I have no doubt that immigration is a losing issue to Democrats everywhere. If Biden gains at the border it’ll be from the much talked about incumbency effects.

I would agree with you that what they want is not necessarily nuance, but nuance is not the same thing as practical policy.

Most importantly, in my view a substantial part of the reason for Trump's relatively better performance with working class Hispanic voters in 2020 compared to 2016 was COVID restrictions. For working class Hispanic voters (as well as working class voters in other ethnic groups, COVID restrictions were not practical policy, because they needed to work to survive and support their families in a more immediate way than suburban college educated voters who could work remotely in many cases. Likewise Trump's support for cash handouts was popular not because it was nuanced (anything but), but because for them it was practical policy.

So COVID restrictions were directly interfering with their livelihoods, in a not entirely dissimilar way to how Abbott's performative theatrics are now interfering with livelihoods in Eagle Pass, and the association with Trump being against COVID restrictions and wanting to "open the economy back up" helped Trump considerably with the Hispanic vote.

Although I would add that in addition to the general effect of COVID restrictions which had a significant impact on the Hispanic vote regardless of geography, there was also a swing in specifically rural areas amongst Hispanics that did not take place among urban Hispanics, which was more a matter of the general increasing trend of rural-urban polarization.

[heatcharger]

Nobody wants their town being overrun by strangers.

Hmm…

[lfromnj]

Lmao strongest swing in the nation to the R's.

Seems the residents do want their town back from the migrants.

Never underestimate how government disrupting everyday life could be a factor in the area that is effected. Nobody wants their town being overrun by strangers.

Meanwhile Scholl was right ! Springfield Ohio swung 10 points to Trump .

[nclib]

Ironically, it also had the 2nd strongest Dem swing in 2008, despite McCain being the Rep nominee.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ironically, it also had the 2nd strongest Dem swing in 2008, despite McCain being the Rep nominee.

It and Starr County are just bizzare places. In 2022 they both had some of the strongest swings left in TX from 2020 Pres.

It really does seem in South Texas in particular, there are just a large number of these voters that only show up for Trump, leave the rest of the ballot blank, and don't show up in off elections.