Moody's Analytics 2024 election model predicts Biden win 308-230 (2020+NC-AZ)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=95674FFE-7734-4401-877A-FE331AECD442&app=download

[Matty]

That’s a fair prediction

[President Johnson]

That’s a fair prediction

Yes, though I'm not sure Biden loses Arizona while winning North Carolina. I'm also unsure whether Georgia isn't more likely to flip.

[Redban]

Seems like they're trying to cover their rear-ends:

In 2020, we incorrectly anticipated that President Trump would win re-election. However, as we demonstrated at the time, a large increase in turnout by Democrats would flip the result to Biden. And indeed, the Democrat Party’s ability to engineer one of the largest turnouts of voters in living memory powered Biden to victory.

 In this election, a larger Republican turnout could swing the results to Trump. Indeed, our election model indicates that, all else equal, a 2-percentage point increase in Republican turnout would turn the election in his favor.

In other words -- "We predict Biden will win 308-230, but we can be wrong if more Trump supporters show up than Biden supporters." That's like my predicting that "the Knicks will beat the Pacers tonight, but Indiana can win if they score more points than New York does."

And as close as 2020 was, they're predicting even closer ("On the state level, the outcome is likely to be even closer than in 2020"). How close do you figure the states can be? WI, AZ, and GA were decided by less than 1% in 2020 as it is

[7,052,770]

Hope they're right. Millions of us are going to be so on edge for the next 9 months, and it would be such a huge relief for Biden to pull it out, especially if it's all done on Election Night.

[President Johnson]

Hope they're right. Millions of us are going to be so on edge for the next 9 months, and it would be such a huge relief for Biden to pull it out, especially if it's all done on Election Night.

Yes, and hopefully he passes 300 electoral votes again. 300 is a solid benchmark in this day and age. Back in the 1980s and before, it was 400.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Worth noting that Moody's 2016 model had Clinton winning and 2020 had Trump winning. I'm not surprised on how poor their election skills are considering they are the type of people to have Biden flipping NC and losing AZ.

[Birdish]

Worth noting that Moody's 2016 model had Clinton winning and 2020 had Trump winning. I'm not surprised on how poor their election skills are considering they are the type of people to have Biden flipping NC and losing AZ.

In Moody's defense, the quality of a campaign isn't a part of the equation. On paper, both Clinton and Trump should have won those elections.

[Averroës]

So, if Biden's re-election prospects had a bond rating, what does this equate to? AA-?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I disagree about him losing Arizona if he is flipping North Carolina, but I'll take it.

[Pericles]

The last thing America needs is for the election to be even closer.

[GAinDC]

I wonder why they see GA as so solid for Biden?

According to polling, a lot of people think it's the first Biden state to flip

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

That’s a fair prediction

Better than yours that has AZ and NV going R, go to fly over country TX and FL are R due to state sales taxes and reliability on lottery taxes and CO, NV, AZ and NM are D

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm actually fairly bullish on AZ. If Biden wins, I think he carries it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm actually fairly bullish on AZ. If Biden wins, I think he carries it.

I'm inclined to agree with this if only because the AZ GOP is such a clown show.

[Vern]

Yea, it's more likely NC and GA swap, than NC and AZ.

[Sir Mohamed]

The last thing America needs is for the election to be even closer.

Sadly, we live in such times, though 2028 could be a bigger win for the side that loses this year.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm actually fairly bullish on AZ. If Biden wins, I think he carries it.

I'm torn but it is my current Max Scenario for Biden(2020-NV, GA)

[henster]

I think they are factoring the border issues being something that drags Biden down specifically in AZ.

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

Imagine thinking AZ is the likeliest swing state to flip. Huhhhh.

[oldtimer]

Worth noting that Moody's 2016 model had Clinton winning and 2020 had Trump winning. I'm not surprised on how poor their election skills are considering they are the type of people to have Biden flipping NC and losing AZ.

They can't predict what the economy will do in 6 months, which is their job.

They should try an astrologer.

[BlueSwan]

This is a terrible model based on economic performance. It’s useless.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Imagine thinking AZ is the likeliest swing state to flip. Huhhhh.

I've been on the train thinking Trump is stronger in the sunbelt than people think but yeah, AZ is definitely more likely to hold up than NV/GA