Iowa vs Kansas

[Arizona Iced Tea]

And what margins do you expect for both states?

Right now I'm estimating Trump+11-12 for both.

[AGA]

Probably Iowa by a little bit.

[mileslunn]

Iowa since despite trending right, still has more ancestral Democrats and not quite as many white Evangelicals as well as rural parts not as sparsely populated as rural Kansas so not the strong libertarian tendency you have in Kansas.  Still gap is closing between two.  In particular Johnson County is your white upper middle class college educated suburban county which was not too long ago reliably Republican but has swung Democrat like many similar whereas you don't really have any equivalent in Iowa.  Perhaps Dallas County, Iowa is one equivalent but much smaller part of state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Iowa for sure.

Nevertheless, this could be the closest they've voted to each other in a very long time, and Kansas may one day vote to Iowa's left. Just not yet.