Will Trump get 20% or over of the Black vote?

[Woody]

title

[Bismarck]

Almost zero chance of that. He might get 15.

[Progressive Pessimist]

13% at most, on his very best night.

[pbrower2a]

No chance. He has done nothing to relate to any large constitueny within the GOP.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Can't see him winning decisively enough for that big of a R swing among Black voters. I can still see him losing with 15%, but a collapse in overall turnout or R surge beyond that probably means he's favored.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

20 is too high, but he could get something in the mid teens.

[Comrade Funk]

The problem is cratering turnout, not some magical Trump surge with black voters

[ProgressiveModerate]

Very unlikely, but I wonder if we start to see a bit more variation in how black voters vote. Perhaps he can get above 20% in some more heavily immigrant black communities in places like NYC who arne't connected to the legacy of slavery in the same way many blacks are.

[TDAS04]

No, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he got 12-13%.

[Mr. Smith]

He'll be lucky to surpass 10%

[heatcharger]

No chance. He has done nothing to relate to any large constitueny within the GOP.

If this would get black people to get COVID-19 vaccines, I would do it.

I would dress up in a Klan robe and tell black people that COVID-19 serves my dream of exterminating a large number of black people so that they can never vote. Right in front of a burning cross.

Average TalkElections poster btw.

[DrScholl]

No Republican nominee since 1960 has gotten that much of the Black vote. Even Nixon and Reagan did horribly with the Black vote while winning in landslides.

[Tekken_Guy]

The problem is cratering turnout, not some magical Trump surge with black voters

If turnout craters that could raise Trump’s vote share with black voters if the dropoff is one-sided.

Also if WWC turnout also craters that would neutralize the effect.

[AGA]

Nope

[indietraveler]

The problem is cratering turnout, not some magical Trump surge with black voters

It's really this. Any noticeable shift to Trump would be due to poor turnout, and even then, he's not getting 20%.

[Tekken_Guy]

The problem is cratering turnout, not some magical Trump surge with black voters

It's really this. Any noticeable shift to Trump would be due to poor turnout, and even then, he's not getting 20%.

What if WWC turnout also craters though?

[DS0816]

title

It is possible.

But, it would be more likely that 20 percent would come from persons who are male and Black.

How is it looking for persons who are female and Black?

In 2020, the nationwide outcome with Blacks (13 percent the size of the vote): Biden 87% vs. Trump 12%. (Margin: D+75.)

It would not surprise me if the Election 2024 nationwide Black vote delivers a Democratic margin under +70 percentage points. (Say, Biden 79% vs. Trump 16%. A margin of D+63.)

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No

[mileslunn]

No, 12% maximum.  Its not uncommon to see pre-election polls showing GOP making big gains amongst Blacks but never materializes.  Bigger worry for Democrats is less about losing votes in Black community, but rather lower turnout as those dissatisfied with Biden in Black community may just stay home and not vote at all.  That could be fatal to Democrats as guarantees loss in Georgia, makes winning Michigan quite difficult and even in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, would need to do better amongst whites to offset this and in case of Nevada need to gain amongst Hispanics or whites.  So for Democrats worry should be not Trump gaining here, but rather will turnout hold or fall.

[Agafin]

I currently have him getting about 17% of the black vote, so no.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

I think Trump gets around mid-teens in terms of the black vote (which probably would be the best showing for a Republican in the black community in many, many years).

[Sir Mohamed]

I fail to see him getting anything close that. He may barely break double digits, though even that is a stretch. The crosstabs in many polls are questionable or of low samples. It's like suggesting Biden would win seniors or be within 10 pts. of white voters.

[Agafin]

Not a chance. Nixon couldn't even get that much of the African American vote.

Um, he did, and even much better in 1960.

[Agafin]

Not a chance. Nixon couldn't even get that much of the African American vote.

Um, he did, and even much better in 1960.

No he didn't. He only got 15% of the black vote in 1972.

Read my comment better. Use a loop

[Bush did 311]

Over 20% of black men... maybe. Black voters as a whole, highly unlikely.