My prediction, though given it's a trend map, there should probably be a little bit more blue states (some of the tilt R thus would have to go tilt D and some of tilt D maybe lean D).
Ye that's the hard thing I always find about creating a trend map - even if I do my honest predictions I still find my trend map being too heavily skewed towards one side; really makes me re-evaluate some of thinking.
MI and PA both really stand out on your map. With MI is the right trend just because of the Arab vote in Dearborn or do you expect Biden to have other problems statewide? Simillarly in PA, you have Biden getting a decent trend even as NJ and NY trend right? Is this based off the 2022 midterms and PA being more pulled into the northeast? If so - why not VA as well?
Overall though our maps have a decent amount of overlap, the biggest being we both agree on the south as a region shifting right and the northeast as a region (outside NY/NJ) shifting left.
I edited my map, re-adjusting for that.
For PA, i explained that in a different thread. Basically i'm assuming a Trump victory, and i just think PA will just not shift that much to the right, maybe a tiny little bit but i can see Biden narrowly holding it even in a moderate loss. I also think the midterm results last time (i know midterms are just midterms), but i think the midterm results really showed promising results for the Democrats.
Someone pointed out that Trump could make gains in the northern rural areas, or areas like Erie county and closer to NY, and that's possible. And i believe there'll be a somewhat of a swing right wing, mainly due to that area. And just the general swing. But assuming not a blowout, i think Biden narrowly holds on, there's also good downballot representation. Might help a little.
PA isn't going to flip, unless a Trump landslide basically
Why?
- Scranton Joe has home advantage
- Clinton did better in 2016 in Philly than Biden did in terms of turn-out (contrary to the trend of that year), so room for growth (or less room to fall) barring a collapse
- 2022 was great for Democrats in PA and they seem to like the national brand a lot more
- Rurals are basically maxed out here, whereas in WI and esp MI they aren't.
- Minority groups is more favourable than elsewhere
- Philly suburbs basically are not really suburbs typical for Rust Belt. Philly is northeastern in vibe
A lot of focus will be on this state, and i think it's the least likely one of the Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 states to flip back.
If Trump wants to win it, he needs high third party share I believe and probably a collapse in Philadelphia for Biden, and in this case a total collapse because 2020 wasn't great for Biden too in Philly and he still won the state by 3. Clinton in 2016 did better in Philly, yet she lost the state because the suburbs didn't trend as much left as they are today.
For MI, i see a lot of trouble. Look it's possible i'm narrowing my view and getting into some kind of self-reinforcing tunnel, but i just think a lot of what is keeping PA/WI/MN in line doesn't apply to MI. The only reason i think is that the local GOP is doing awful in MI. But this isn't about local politics, it's about the national brand. And I really think some demographics will turn out less in MI. Detroit in particular will very likely have much less turnout, and that alone would already contribute to a drop of 3 points, while I also believe the suburbs will see a drop in enthusiasm with the rurals shifting right, including small cities like Marquette county in upper Michigan. And the Arab / Muslim vote is a lot more significant here than in other rust belt states. Tlaib will also have some influence in her state.
WI doesn't have all these factors not (though neither that of PA), which is why i think it'll more likely do what the rest of the nation or what IA/Great-Northern plains/rust belt do, but i have a harder time pinpointing what WI will do i think. I think nothing stands out.
Remember that trends also is taking into account where candidates perhaps overperformed in 2020, overperforming over where they should be at, and underperforming. And taking into account a lack of enthusiasm drop which will hurt big cities like NYC for instance. Maybe NY must have been coloured with the safe shade too. NY also has a lot of minority population, due to the city of NYC. And Staten and Long Island will both shift right wing. Brooklyn too also significantly.
I believe upper NY state is the tilt shade, but its really NYC i believe that will trend significantly right wing.
