If Haley is installed as the nominee, will MAGA turn out for her?

[mjba257]

Meaning if Trump is forced out due to legal or health reasons and Nikki is made the nominee by default, will the MAGA base turn out for her? This is a real concern because even with the massive gains she likely makes with moderates and independents, you can't win without your base. After all, Romney won indies in 2012, yet still lost.

Your thoughts?

[Sir Mohamed]

Some will, others not. Also depends on how exactly she's "installed".

[Minnesota Mike]

How exactly would she be "installed"? Zombie Trump as well as the other dropouts are still on the ballot in most places (part of the reason candidates suspend, not end their campaigns) so it's very doubtful she would have a clear path in what likely would be an open convention.

[Agafin]

She doesn't really need all of them.

[mjba257]

Some will, others not. Also depends on how exactly she's "installed".

Installed as in she's not nominated because the voters picked her. Installed as in the frontrunner was removed from the race by external forces, and she as the only other person in the race becomes the nominee by default. In all likelihood, this is probably the reason she is still in the race. It's what she's banking on

[2016]

She doesn't really need all of them.

I agree no matter what MAGA Republicans say if it is a Binary Choice between Haley and Biden they will vote for her to retire Pres Biden.

I support Pres Bidens Re-Election over former Pres Trump. If it's Haley vs Biden I may have to reconsider.

[TodayJunior]

Some but not all esp in the rust belt states that rejected GWB twice.
Good luck with that.

[Crumpets]

People who turn out every 4 years to vote for whoever the GOP nominates and happen to identify as MAGA will still mostly turn out. People who identify as MAGA first and Republicans second, especially those who have only become politically engaged since 2015, would have huge dropoff, and I don't think Haley would be able to make up for that among moderates, at least in the scenario you outline.

[PeteB]

I think there is a big difference in whether she gets "installed" through Trump's ill health or through the courts barring him.

In the former case, Trump would probably try to annoint someone else and MAGA would turn against her.

In the latter, Trump would be disgraced and,  even though MAGA voters may hold their noses, they will probably turn out to vote for Republicans, including Haley.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Barely, and that's why Biden could take her.

[mjba257]

I think there is a big difference in whether she gets "installed" through Trump's ill health or through the courts barring him.

In the former case, Trump would probably try to annoint someone else and MAGA would turn against her.

In the latter, Trump would be disgraced and,  even though MAGA voters may hold their noses, they will probably turn out to vote for Republicans, including Haley.

By health, I mean Trump expires. He can't annoint anyone from six feet below

[Duke 🇺🇸]

I think there is a big difference in whether she gets "installed" through Trump's ill health or through the courts barring him.

In the former case, Trump would probably try to annoint someone else and MAGA would turn against her.

In the latter, Trump would be disgraced and,  even though MAGA voters may hold their noses, they will probably turn out to vote for Republicans, including Haley.

By health, I mean Trump expires. He can't annoint anyone from six feet below

The MAGA legions would vote for him anyway, believe he only faked his death so he can reveal he's alive later.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes , and Trump would endorse her as well because his freedom would be on the line as well .

[oldtimer]

Some will, others not. Also depends on how exactly she's "installed".

Lets disperse with this nonsense fantasy once and for all :

https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_nikki_haley?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

-42 is something you see in Antarctica, not a Nominee.  

She is Hated with a capital H (you can make jokes that the H in Haley stands for Hate).

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

80% would, and she would get back 10% of Romney-Clinton-Biden voters.

[AGA]

A lot of Trump supporters hate Haley and will refuse to turn out for her.

[David Hume]

She doesn't really need all of them.

I agree no matter what MAGA Republicans say if it is a Binary Choice between Haley and Biden they will vote for her to retire Pres Biden.

I support Pres Bidens Re-Election over former Pres Trump. If it's Haley vs Biden I may have to reconsider.

I would support Biden over Haley, although I am by no means a MAGA.

[MABA 2020]

If she replaces Trump because he has expired then I think it matters if she plays into the inevitable conspiracy theories. "The deep state killed Trump, if elected I will expose them" etc.

[Redban]

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889

New Quinnipiac poll

 10% of Repubs say they won't vote if she's the nominee (though Haley still beats Biden 47-42 regardless).

With Kennedy & others included, a whopping 24% of Republicans say they'll vote Kennedy. In contrast, just 7% of Repubs say they would vote Kennedy if Trump is the nominee.

[DaleCooper]

A significant percentage of Trump voters will never vote again after 2024 because they won't support anyone but Trump.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

A significant percentage of Trump voters will never vote again after 2024 because they won't support anyone but Trump.

Then doesn't that make them useless in the long run?

[DaleCooper]

A significant percentage of Trump voters will never vote again after 2024 because they won't support anyone but Trump.

Then doesn't that make them useless in the long run?

Yes, completely useless. Trump is the Republicans' Obama, but worse because he lost reelection.

[mileslunn]

No, but still has as good as odds of winning as your amongst your college educated white suburban voters, she will do better than Trump will (although probably still underperform Romney) and that group generally votes and some are very reluctant Biden voters who would switch GOP in a heartbeat if it was someone other than Trump.  Most Trump supporters are actually just loyal Republicans who will vote GOP no matter what, but yes there is an element who are MAGA voters and won't show up if Trump not on ballot.  But I think her gains amongst upper middle class white suburban voters cancels out loss of hardcore MAGA types.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yes,

Haley would wipe Biden off the floor if she gets the nomination.

But that won't happen, because as soon as Haley gets the nominations, the Democrats will install Michelle Obama as their nominee.

Haley vs Obama.

I never realised how much of a warmonger she was.

Haley on Iran

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2xsDvrvW9S/

[BlueSwan]

Basically yes, they will, unless Trump himself turns against her. What she will have trouble with are the low propensity low social trust Qanon type voters that probably turned out in record numbers for Trump in 2024. However, she could well compensate for that by having greater appeal to college educated republicans and independents.