2014 midterms but Romney is President
(1/1)
Samof94:
What changes if he is President instead of Obama, but it is 2014 and Romney is in his first midterm? Remember the Senate is likely Democratic at this point.
dw93:
The Senate Map that year was still awful for the Democrats. The Democrats for sure would keep North Carolina and Colorodo, but for sure still lose Arkansas, West Virginia, and Louisiana. I don't know enough about the other close Senate races that year to say one way or another how they'd go, so a Republican net of 3-6 seats is likely, meaning the GOP flips the Senate from the Democrats.
As for the House, the Democrats likely gain enough seats to retake the majority, though I doubt it's more than 225 or 230 seats.
The Governor's races see the Democrats net gains too.
Samof94:
Quote from: dw93 on January 28, 2024, 01:59:40 PM
The Senate Map that year was still awful for the Democrats. The Democrats for sure would keep North Carolina and Colorodo, but for sure still lose Arkansas, West Virginia, and Louisiana. I don't know enough about the other close Senate races that year to say one way or another how they'd go, so a Republican net of 3-6 seats is likely, meaning the GOP flips the Senate from the Democrats.
As for the House, the Democrats likely gain enough seats to retake the majority, though I doubt it's more than 225 or 230 seats.
The Governor's races see the Democrats net gains too.
Colorado was clearly a fluke given how easily it flipped back in 2020.
President Johnson:
Quote from: dw93 on January 28, 2024, 01:59:40 PM
The Senate Map that year was still awful for the Democrats. The Democrats for sure would keep North Carolina and Colorodo, but for sure still lose Arkansas, West Virginia, and Louisiana. I don't know enough about the other close Senate races that year to say one way or another how they'd go, so a Republican net of 3-6 seats is likely, meaning the GOP flips the Senate from the Democrats.
As for the House, the Democrats likely gain enough seats to retake the majority, though I doubt it's more than 225 or 230 seats.
The Governor's races see the Democrats net gains too.
Agreed, though I think Republicans may have narrowly kept the House under Romney. He would have been an inoffensive president that doesn't cause so much backlash among Democrats. Especially if latter kept the senate in 2012 and prevent the White House from passing unpopular legislation. The economy was also improving by that time. I would also expect Romney to win reelection quite easily in 2016 against Hillary Clinton while Republicans finally lose the House in 2018 during the six year itch. Ryan then wins the nomination in 2020, but loses to a Democrat by a comfortable margin.
politicallefty:
Quote from: dw93 on January 28, 2024, 01:59:40 PM
The Senate Map that year was still awful for the Democrats. The Democrats for sure would keep North Carolina and Colorodo, but for sure still lose Arkansas, West Virginia, and Louisiana. I don't know enough about the other close Senate races that year to say one way or another how they'd go, so a Republican net of 3-6 seats is likely, meaning the GOP flips the Senate from the Democrats.
As for the House, the Democrats likely gain enough seats to retake the majority, though I doubt it's more than 225 or 230 seats.
The Governor's races see the Democrats net gains too.
I think Begich would likely hold on in a Romney midterm. After that it gets tough though, especially if Democrats fell short of the 55 seats they actually got in 2012 (a slightly stronger Republican year could've easily prevented Heitkamp's win and possibly Tester's). On the other hand, we don't know which Senators a President Romney might have plucked out for Cabinet. Let's say Heitkamp doesn't win and Democrats have a 54-46 Majority. Republicans would need a 4-seat gain to win control. Arkansas, South Dakota, and West Virginia are definitely gone. Montana is likely gone as well. I don't think Louisiana would be automatically gone, but it would still definitely be uphill Democrats. I think the biggest question would be whether or not Democrats (or Independent in the case of KS) could do significantly better in Georgia, Iowa, and/or Kansas. There's a strong chance Republicans would've won the Senate, but it would've been a narrow majority for either side.
The House would heavily depend on Romney's popularity. A stronger Republican year in 2012 also likely would've put Democrats at a worse starting position. They probably would've needed a net gain of 25-30 seats. Considering the gerrymanders at that time, Romney would've had to have been pretty unpopular.
I definitely agree that Governor's races are where you'd see Democrats do pretty well. They certainly would've held IL, MA, and MD. There's a good chance they'd pick up Kansas, Maine, and Michigan. Wisconsin would also be a strong opportunity and it's possible Walker would've gone down. Florida would appear to be the lowest-hanging fruit, but I don't think I need to explain my skepticism there.
Navigation
[0] Message Index