New RCP DROP!: Trump leading by 4.3 points. Biggest Republican polling lead since autumn 2004

[wbrocks67]

I thought that after 2022 everyone agreed that we shouldn't take RCP seriously anymore.

Also, Harris is one & the same. But RCP purposely keeps both in there. RCP is all about the narrative.

[🥥🌴]

The likely reason of the PV swinging right is underperformance in the populous states (IL, CA, NY, TX and FL).

Obviously, it's still a bad sign but I do think the "big states" will swing further right than some of the smaller/competitive ones, esp. because candidates will focus less on those states and turnout might drop due to less enthusiasm and no personal campaigning/ads from the candidates.

[Fusternino]

Trump gets NM before either MN or NH.

[🥥🌴]

Trump gets NM before either MN or NH.

That's not even a hot take.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

As zi repeat myself WC whites lie all the time whom they are gonna vote for, we just have to wait til Eday results I Guarantee that Trump won't win by 4 pts he didn't win it in 2016 and Laki and certain users think that polls are end all be all no it's not that's why we vote

[Fusternino]

Trump gets NM before either MN or NH.

That's not even a hot take.

It was as late as a couple months ago apparently, lol. Go check my post history.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Remember when they had WA-Sen 2022 as a tossup? Yeah.

[🥥🌴]

Trump gets NM before either MN or NH.

That's not even a hot take.

It was as late as a couple months ago apparently, lol. Go check my post history.

NM makes a lot of sense to swing hard right. Young ppl, hispanics, quite rural (just more minority voters), close to the border, no major cities like Atlanta & relatively uneducated compared to other "democratic states". Biden won by slightly over 10 in 2020. If the NPV indeed is Trump +4, NM flips. It's an 8 point shift to the left, and i think a state like NM will swing more relative to center of nation. It definitely is in play, though if we get closer to election day, the NPV might obviously trend back towards Biden.

[Senator Incitatus]

Important to note that not only is the margin much higher than anything since 2004, the raw percentage of 47.3 is also significantly higher than anything Trump has gotten in polling averages before.

Hillary Clinton is also the only candidate who has led by this amount or more at any point and lost the election since the site launched. (Kerry never led by much more than 2 points in their average, but the average also didn’t launch until April.)

Biden has a lot of ground to make up, and if nothing changes by summer, his party should begin to consider a Dole-style triage.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

What Laki doesn't understand, Redban or Snowlabrador is that eDays are futuristic not present just because Biden is losing now doesn't mean anything in 9nths

I know the polls show Trump leading but maps are blank on Eday and 22 said it was a red wave yr and they were wrong that's why Elections guy isn't on here. OH, TX, NC and AK may come in for Biden after midnight

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Gavin Newsom is campaign for Biden and he is more popular than DeSantis is to Trump, the only state that will come in easily is FL because a female Debbie Powell is on the ballot like MO G Quade.  Heinrich, GallegoBusse, Tester, Brown, ALLRED and Kunce are all unbeatable because they are macho men, all have some sort of military experience in their backyard

I would compare the Niners to Chiefs and Biden the city of Bay area is in love with Niners

[The Mikado]

Update: it's 1.8 now.

[TodayJunior]

Haven’t we learned not to trust polls esp when Trump’s name is actually on the ballot let alone 9 months out. Sure he’s got the maga base but that only about a 40% slice of the electorate. Then you’ve got the hardcore partisans and leaners who will hold their noses which adds another 6%.

Once you get past that, these are folks who did not support Trump in either 16/20. For the sake of easy math, let’s just say these true swing voters or moveables (2-3%) are those who could support Trump with the following presumptions that 1) he’s not convicted - unlikely, 2) economy goes into a recession - unlikely 3) Biden gets us into a war with Iran - again unlikely, 4) and then there’s the Dobbs fallout which the gop still doesn’t have a good counter-messaging strategy.

These in my view are going to be main issues of the day going into the fall. Every domino would have to break trumps way in order for him to pull off a win. Good luck!!

[ProudModerate2]

Update: it's 1.8 now.

LOL.

[ProudModerate2]

Haven’t we learned not to trust polls esp when Trump’s name is actually on the ballot let alone 9 months out.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Update: it's 1.8 now.

The 4.3 was cause it was dominated by R friendly polls that was never gonna last

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Approvals are 45/53 the same as it was in 22

[7,052,770]

Biden's toast

is covered in peanut butter and victory.