New RCP DROP!: Trump leading by 4.3 points. Biggest Republican polling lead since autumn 2004

[Woody]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

47.3% of the vote share

[EastwoodS]

I have no clue what’s making the gap widen. That’s crazy

[emailking]

Oh wow

[Redban]

If you took away Harris, messenger, and Rassy … the lead would actually be 1.75% (because the last USA Today [Trump +1]., Quinnipiac [Biden +1], and Yahoo [tie] would replace them). Harris and The Messenger have Trump +6, and Rassy has +8

I don’t like Biden either, but I want to keep things honest. I don’t think Trump can viably win by 4 points

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

If you took away Harris, messenger, and Rassy … the lead would actually be 1.75% (because the last USA Today [Trump +1]., Quinnipiac [Biden +1], and Yahoo [tie] would replace them). Harris and The Messenger have Trump +6, and Rassy has +8

I don’t like Biden either, but I want to keep things honest. I don’t think Trump can viably win by 4 points

Yeah this is because some R friendly polls have dropped recently and are doing some major legwork

[Landslide Lyndon]

I thought that after 2022 everyone agreed that we shouldn't take RCP seriously anymore.

[EastwoodS]

I thought that after 2022 everyone agreed that we shouldn't take RCP seriously anymore.

I never felt that way.

[Birdish]

Can we stop making RCP threads and just make a mega thread or something?

[Birdish]

Also, the thread title mentions 2004, yet the polling in January of 2004 had Kerry solidly ahead. Just a fun tidbit to the topic creator currently spiking the ball before the game has even started.

edit:



For anyone who thinks an incumbent can't comeback, or that it's unusual for an incumbent to be struggling at this point.

If we had an aggregate site from 1996, I'd imagine Clinton would also be struggling early in the year thanks to Whitewater.

Edit 2: to preface, I don't think Biden is in great shape. But I think it's important to remember that its still January and multiple incumbents, be it Bush Jr. or Clinton, have turned it around. That's not to say its guaranteed, as we see with both Trump in 2020 and Carter in 1980.

[Beet]

Biden is in far worse polling shape than any incumbent who has "turned it around".

[The Mamdani Virus]

This would be the electoral map in such a case, which honestly looks deceptively close (though it's on UNS, I suspect in an actual R+4 win ME would end up falling too and NM would be very close)

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah and it's MOE and the state by state polls are better for Biden ALLRED is only 2 pts behind lol Trump isn't winning anything until we vote


News flash Rs were fav in 22 and there was no red wave

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

This would be the electoral map in such a case, which honestly looks deceptively close (though it's on UNS, I suspect in an actual R+4 win ME would end up falling too and NM would be very close)

I don’t think NH falls.

[EastwoodS]

This would be the electoral map in such a case, which honestly looks deceptively close (though it's on UNS, I suspect in an actual R+4 win ME would end up falling too and NM would be very close)

I don’t think NH falls.

maybe NM is a sleeper flip and NH stays blue.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Poll averages fluctuate a lot. In a few more weeks Trumps lead will probably be 1 again just based off noise.

[oldtimer]

Also, the thread title mentions 2004, yet the polling in January of 2004 had Kerry solidly ahead. Just a fun tidbit to the topic creator currently spiking the ball before the game has even started.

edit:



For anyone who thinks an incumbent can't comeback, or that it's unusual for an incumbent to be struggling at this point.

If we had an aggregate site from 1996, I'd imagine Clinton would also be struggling early in the year thanks to Whitewater.

Edit 2: to preface, I don't think Biden is in great shape. But I think it's important to remember that its still January and multiple incumbents, be it Bush Jr. or Clinton, have turned it around. That's not to say its guaranteed, as we see with both Trump in 2020 and Carter in 1980.

In case you didn't live throught it, neither Bush Jr or Clinton turned things around in their relection years because they where already coasting to relection:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Bush had a positive approval rating at that time in Jan. '04, 9/11 was still fresh and the Iraq war wasn't yet perceived as a failure, Kerry had sure loser written all over him like Romney in 2012.

Sure they where going a bit back and forth in the polls until the conventions, but the base wanted Dean not Kerry.
With Bush still being popular, Kerry was on his own, same story in 2012.

Last time Clinton was behind was Nov. 1995 against Powell I think, I don't remember Dole leading in any polls after the summer of '95.

Dole was also perceived as a sure loser by Jan. '96, republicans really didn't want him, with Clinton being popular, Dole again was on his own.

There is something about parties nominating really wooden candidates against incumbents:

Mondale, Dole, Kerry, Romney

Edit:

I think I found the last poll that had Clinton behind in Oct.1995, but against Powell not Dole :

https://www.icpsr.umich.edu/web/ICPSR/studies/06700/datasets/0001/variables/Q7?archive=ICPSR

[DrScholl]

Trump will get 47% that much is for sure. RCP is not a pollster and they certainly aren't 100% accurate with their averages, especially this early.

[oldtimer]

Poll averages fluctuate a lot. In a few more weeks Trumps lead will probably be 1 again just based off noise.

Perhaps, these are my observations:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

1. Biden's stuck averaging 44 for a couple of years now, I guess it will still be 44 or so.

2. The mystery is Trump's numbers, because they tend to yo-yo, usually the highest number in the polling average is the correct one, 47 for Trump isn't unusual if that's his real vote.

3. When Candidates hit their party's previous election vote share in the polling average, they do better than last time on election day.

If Biden loses the popular vote 44-47 I won't be shocked.

[oldtimer]

This would be the electoral map in such a case, which honestly looks deceptively close (though it's on UNS, I suspect in an actual R+4 win ME would end up falling too and NM would be very close)

The smaller the states the smaller their impact with the Popular Vote.

N.H. could be Biden +100 and it still wont dent the Popular Vote by much.

If Trump is leading by 3-4, then whole regions should be moving with or without the tiny E.V. states.

Now if N.H is the only state in New England that doesn't move that's ok.
If New England as a whole doesn't move, then the other regions should move by more to compensate.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This would be the electoral map in such a case, which honestly looks deceptively close (though it's on UNS, I suspect in an actual R+4 win ME would end up falling too and NM would be very close)

The smaller the states the smaller their impact with the Popular Vote.

N.H. could be Biden +100 and it still wont dent the Popular Vote by much.

If Trump is leading by 3-4, then whole regions should be moving with or without the tiny E.V. states.

Now if N.H is the only state in New England that doesn't move that's ok.
If New England as a whole doesn't move, then the other regions should move by more to compensate.

There is no way Trump wins this map

[oldtimer]

This would be the electoral map in such a case, which honestly looks deceptively close (though it's on UNS, I suspect in an actual R+4 win ME would end up falling too and NM would be very close)

The smaller the states the smaller their impact with the Popular Vote.

N.H. could be Biden +100 and it still wont dent the Popular Vote by much.

If Trump is leading by 3-4, then whole regions should be moving with or without the tiny E.V. states.

Now if N.H is the only state in New England that doesn't move that's ok.
If New England as a whole doesn't move, then the other regions should move by more to compensate.

There is no way Trump wins this map

I also think it's unlikely that a Trump win by 4 would translate into that electoral map, only because of NH.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win MN

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Probably because Trump dominating the primary is consolidating Republicans

[Randy Marsh]

Biden's toast

[Pericles]

I'm not sure what to expect. If I go by Biden's approval rating, he's doomed. If I go by opinions of Trump and the Republican Party's performance in actual elections since 2020, I'd expect a Biden win or at least another very close election.

Voter attitudes before the campaign do matter, but they can change as the campaign changes how voters think about the choice or even just that the situation in November will be different from now due to the progression of time. Of course that doesn't definitely mean Biden will get more popular but that's plausible. So at this stage, the safe bet is against a landslide victory for either candidate.