South Carolina Democratic Party primary (Feb. 3)

[wbrocks67]

Phillips ain't getting 16%

https://twitter.com/toreyvanoot/status/1753078536578158715

[Duke 🇺🇸]

The black vote will almost universally vote for Biden and many white liberals will probably vote for Haley in the GOP primary. I doubt anyone not named Biden cracked 10%.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Phillips ain't getting 16%

https://twitter.com/toreyvanoot/status/1753078536578158715

And idk about you all, but I’d totally go to see him. Wouldn’t vote for him though, but it would be funny to get a photo with him.

[NOVA Green]

So although it is patently obvious that Biden will win the SC-DEM PRIM here in a couple days, it is interesting that the Biden campaign is trying hard to dissuade DEM's from voting in the PUB PRIM.

South Carolina Democrats, working to turn out a show of force for President Biden in their party’s primary on Saturday, would like to remind their voters that Nikki Haley is not the moderate Republican that some may believe her to be.

In recent weeks, party leaders have made Ms. Haley a particular focus of their events across the state, calling her the “mother of the MAGA movement” and regaling attendees with lists of the ultraconservative policies she championed in her two terms as governor.

There’s no indication that significant numbers of Democrats have so far been swayed to Ms. Haley’s camp. Those thinking of backing Ms. Haley on Feb. 24 say they feel compelled at least to consider it because their own primary is so uncompetitive.

Republicans, for their part, have endorsed changing election rules to partisan primary elections that would allow voters to cast ballots only in the primary for the party they are registered with. Drew McKissick, chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party, called the state’s open primary system “the worst of all worlds.”

Palmetto State Democratic leaders have sought to paint Ms. Haley as a politician whose national ambitions led her to push for some of the most conservative policies in state history, pointing specifically to her signing a 20-week abortion ban while governor in 2016 and refusing to expand Medicaid.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/01/us/politics/haley-democrats-south-carolina.html

[SnowLabrador]

What would be considered a good result for Biden? Over 80%? Turnout also matters.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Turnout's gonna be awfully low:

There were reports of only 1 person outside school precincts in Charleston when polls opened.

Turnout below 100.000 would be catastrophic, even if Biden wins 80%.

It would be 3% turnout.

That's only 80.000 votes, when 1.1 million voted for him in 2020.

Michigan will be much more representative and interesting.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout's gonna be awfully low:

There were reports of only 1 person outside school precincts in Charleston when polls opened.

Turnout below 100.000 would be catastrophic, even if Biden wins 80%.

It would be 3% turnout.

That's only 80.000 votes, when 1.1 million voted for him in 2020.

Michigan will be much more representative and interesting.

It's literally a noncompetitive primary. Calm down.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout in 2022 for Dems was 170K on the Senate side and 180K on the governor side, so that may be a good point of reference.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Turnout in 2022 for Dems was 170K on the Senate side and 180K on the governor side, so that may be a good point of reference.

Well, the SC voter committee says that 185.000 took part in 2022 D primaries.

Of which 101.000 were early voters.

Until yesterday, 48.000 have voted early, which would point to 100k turnout.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout in 2022 for Dems was 170K on the Senate side and 180K on the governor side, so that may be a good point of reference.

Well, the SC voter committee says that 185.000 took part in 2022 D primaries.

Of which 101.000 were early voters.

Until yesterday, 48.000 have voted early, which would point to 100k turnout.

Not really comparable, given that COVID was still much more prevalent in 2022. I would assume especially in a state that doesn't normally have ton of early vote that it would be more pronounced there. Given that nearly 50,000 have voted early, I doubt we're seeing 80-100k total turnout.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Turnout in 2022 for Dems was 170K on the Senate side and 180K on the governor side, so that may be a good point of reference.

Well, the SC voter committee says that 185.000 took part in 2022 D primaries.

Of which 101.000 were early voters.

Until yesterday, 48.000 have voted early, which would point to 100k turnout.

Not really comparable, given that COVID was still much more prevalent in 2022. I would assume especially in a state that doesn't normally have ton of early vote that it would be more pronounced there. Given that nearly 50,000 have voted early, I doubt we're seeing 80-100k total turnout.

I think it will be 100-220k.

I was predicting about 156.000 or something earlier.

Hard to tell.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1753839711884288082?s=20

[ralstonfan65]

This suggests that the action for white "independents" will happen in the Republican primary which might indicate that Haley will, once again, beat her polling.

[2016]

This suggests that the action for white "independents" will happen in the Republican primary which might indicate that Haley will, once again, beat her polling.

That's my Theory as well. NBC estimated 200K Turnout this Morning and they may have to downgrade that.

I think Haley will crack 40 % of the Vote in 3 Weeks Time and with a little luck she might get to 45 %.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

NYT results page is up:

Link

You can access the link for free, I am a subscriber and can gift the link to everyone without the paywall.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/TocRadio/status/1753868592917934362

[wbrocks67]

Democratic primary turnout for SC:
1992: 116,414
1996: no primary
2000: 9,657 (caucus)
2004: 292,383
2008: 532,468
2012: no primary
2016: 370,904
2020: 539,263

[2016]

Democratic primary turnout for SC:
1992: 116,414
1996: no primary
2000: 9,657 (caucus)
2004: 292,383
2008: 532,468
2012: no primary
2016: 370,904
2020: 539,263

They are going to be lucky if they crack 200,000 today.

[Compuzled_One]

So do results start coming in now, or are those line voters delaying things?

[Ferguson97]

Legitimately forgot this was today lol, I assumed it was on Tuesday.

[The Mikado]

Legitimately forgot this was today lol, I assumed it was on Tuesday.

Tuesday is Nevada.

[Crumpets]

Legitimately forgot this was today lol, I assumed it was on Tuesday.

Just came here to say exactly the same thing - only realized it was tonight when I got a news alert on my phone that polls had closed.

[Crumpets]

First results: Biden up by 100% (10 votes in, all in Marlboro County)

[The Mikado]

First precinct in (Marlboro County):

Biden 10 votes
Phillips and Williamson 0 votes

[Eraserhead]

Only things to watch for are 1) Does Biden crack 90%? 2) Does Williamson upset Phillips for #2?