South Carolina Democratic Party primary (Feb. 3)

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/deanbphillips/status/1753955878951063978?t=vU-vUJm4F0s4vihkq...

Well, good he found a way to stay optimistic and play this as a win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NYT estimating 20% is in with 30k total right now, so looks like they're forecasting ~150K

The experts told me Biden had a big problem with black voters because of Gaza. Sure looks like the result that will get Trump 23% of the black vote in neighboring Georgia.

Ah yes, because you can jump to conclusions on the basis of a low turnout primary against.. Dean Philips and Marianne Williamson.

Oh be quiet. It certainly doesn't give your much to crow about that's for sure.

Be quiet about it ? That I'm not criticizing experts analysis on the basis of extrapolation from one primary state.

I do think that Biden's issues with Black voters are probably overstated.. but most polls show that trump's gains are amongst low propensity minorities anyway, who may not be picked up in a primary which is a foregone conclusion with a incumbent president.

Whether they actually vote in the general is up in the air however.

This might actually explain why we keep seeing general election polls in two disparate camps: one with Trump doing quite well, the other with Biden doing quite well.  In the current environment it's a reasonably sound assumption that Democrats do better with high-propensity voters.  We also know that in the last few cycles, polls have had a big problem picking up low-propensity voters.  Possibly some of the pollsters have adjusted their techniques to reach more low-propensity voters, or to adjust their weights to increase their influence, and these generate the more Trump-favorable results.

This could explain the difference -- and the key question then becomes the one you mentioned: how many of the low-propensity voters actually turn out in November.

[wbrocks67]

More embarrassing for Phillips is that he has to say Michigan b/c he's not even on the ballot in Nevada.

[Flo 2.0]

https://twitter.com/deanbphillips/status/1753955878951063978?t=vU-vUJm4F0s4vihkq...

That's just such a weird thing to say...

[Eraserhead]

https://twitter.com/deanbphillips/status/1753955878951063978?t=vU-vUJm4F0s4vihkq...

He should congratulate Williamson too.

[emailking]

Turnout is so low that I don't see how you can honestly glean anything substantive from this. Biden's getting maybe 2/3 of the votes he received in the 2020 primary. In some of the >95% reporting Black Belt counties, he's turning out 50-60% of his 2020 total.

I glean that he is dominating the field.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Phillips is outpolling Williamson in Colleton, Berkeley, Hampton, Aiken, and Abbeville. The rest have her leading him.

[Dwarven Dragon]

PROJECTION: WILLIAMSON FINISHES SECOND, PHILLIPS THIRD

Joseph R. Biden Jr.*incumbent
108,104   +96.4%96.4%   
55
Marianne Williamson
2,242   +2.0%2.0   
No delegates—
Dean Phillips
1,834   +1.6%1.6   

[7,052,770]

If Williamson and Phillips don't endorse Biden tonight, they're just helping Trump. The Democratic voters don't overwhelmingly don't want to dump Biden for either of those clowns. Time to put their egos aside and help stop Trump.

Oh please, most people don't even know they exist.

I think you're supporting my point that they need to drop out?

[The Mamdani Virus]

If Williamson and Phillips don't endorse Biden tonight, they're just helping Trump. The Democratic voters don't overwhelmingly don't want to dump Biden for either of those clowns. Time to put their egos aside and help stop Trump.

Oh please, most people don't even know they exist.

I think you're supporting my point that they need to drop out?

Also in the unlikely event that Biden died, was forced to resign, etc., neither of them would be the nominee in a contested convention (it would be Harris). If they're really going to get 2% in every state, they won't even win any delegates.

[emailking]

Biden has 96% with 90% in.

[Ferguson97]

What's up with Lee County? NYT still has them 0% reporting.

[Dwarven Dragon]

What's up with Lee County? NYT still has them 0% reporting.

Probably no one showed up to vote

[Landslide Lyndon]

But how many votes CEASEFIRE got???

[Compuzled_One]

But how many votes CEASEFIRE got???

Sadly, SC bans write-ins.

[Dwarven Dragon]

But how many votes CEASEFIRE got???

If SC recognized write-ins it probably would've beaten Phillips too.

[Landslide Lyndon]

But how many votes CEASEFIRE got???

Sadly, SC bans write-ins.

More proof that the establishment rigged the primary for Senile Joe.

[emailking]

What's up with Lee County? NYT still has them 0% reporting.

Probably no one showed up to vote

Almost 1000 people voted.

[Eraserhead]

If Williamson and Phillips don't endorse Biden tonight, they're just helping Trump. The Democratic voters don't overwhelmingly don't want to dump Biden for either of those clowns. Time to put their egos aside and help stop Trump.

Oh please, most people don't even know they exist.

I think you're supporting my point that they need to drop out?

No, they're harmless and at least providing people with alternatives even if they aren't the best ones. 

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

My God...just think of how glorious it shall be on March 5 when Biden gets over 95% in Birmingham, Alabama!

What a result that shall be. I think the feeling will be similar to the feelings people had 2000 years ago when they actually met and interacted with Jesus Christ in person.

Let it be a sweet, sweet sound…
Let it be a sweet, sweet sound…
Let it be a sweet, sweet sound…
Let it be a sweet, sweet sound…
In your ear

Up to the light I will sing praises
Up to the light I will sing praises

[7,052,770]

If Williamson and Phillips don't endorse Biden tonight, they're just helping Trump. The Democratic voters don't overwhelmingly don't want to dump Biden for either of those clowns. Time to put their egos aside and help stop Trump.

Oh please, most people don't even know they exist.

I think you're supporting my point that they need to drop out?

No, they're harmless and at least providing people with alternatives even if they aren't the best ones. 

Did you see the attack ads on Biden that Phillips was running in New Hampshire? I wouldn't call him harmless, unfortunately. They obviously aren't enough to bring votes to him, but any seed of doubt over Biden planted in a Democratic (or Independent) voter's mind is something that could come back to haunt us in November and usher Trump back into the White House.

[emailking]

Biden swept the dels.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

This was a pretty good result for Biden in SC, but the turnout was really meager.

Michigan will be the key state now:

If Phillips invests 5 million $ and gets double-digits, he has reasons to remain in the race until Super Tuesday or later.

Michigan has somewhat of a protest potential coming up (but I don't think Arabs there will vote for Jewish Dean Phillips, but rather for "uncommitted" against Biden.)

If Phillips receives only 5-10% in Michigan, he should drop out before Super Tuesday.

[President Johnson]

This is actually a great result for Biden. Wikipedia has him at over 96%.

I wonder whether this kind of disproves the notion he's losing ground among black voters? After all, he has delivered a strong economy, low unemployment and has the most diverse cabinet, including the appointment of KBJ (promise made, promise kept) as well as many more black judges and attorneys. Of course, turnout may be too low to draw overall conclusions from this single result, but his perceived weakness is not showing up so far. Even his NH performance was solid among all voters.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If there were so many people angry with Biden then they would have gone to the polls to show their displeasure. For all the deserved ridicule, Phillips is on paper a vanilla Democrat that any anti-Biden voter would have no problem to pull the lever for.
The fact that they didn't just shows that the only constituency itching for Biden to drop out are the media and some bed-wetting DC consultants.